Wednesday, January 04, 2012

What Happened in Iowa?

Rick Santorum and Romney are practically even . So in the case of momentum I say that it is Santorum who takes the Iowa momentum to New Hampshire.

Rick Santorum won the central part of Iowa that was filled with evangelicals and rural voters, Romney won slightly in the most populated counties which led to his showing. Ron Paul did well in the rural counties, and did good in the east, but lost his chance to win in the west (where much more convicted conservative live). 

In Iowa the voter turnout was just the exact same as last time 4 years ago. Where is the Tea Party? This might be why Rick Santorum didn't get more votes. 

But in Iowa the clear game changer Ron Paul even though he didn't won he defiantly made a change in the numbers. Not only did he take his 10% vote in 2008 and make it 21% he was the only candidate I think that kept the turnout up, because in 2008 86% of caucus goers identified themselves as Republicans and only 13% were independent. In 2012 the Republicans only made  75% and the independents 23%. We know that the Independent increase has something to do with Paul because in 2008 Paul got 29% of independents, and now in 2012 he got 44% of independents. 

So winners and losers 

Rick Santorum: for winning at least 2nd in Iowa even though he spend very little amount of money


Michele Bachman: for getting so few votes even lower then expected in a state were she won the Iowa Ames poll and were she was born
Newt Gingrich: for getting in the low teens no were near the top three contenders 

Mitt Romney: for getting fewer votes this time around in 2012 compared to 2008, and for losing to the candidate who spend millions less then him in the Iowa state.

Rick Perry: because he spend more money on ads then any other candidate and got fewer votes then Newt who was attacked more then any other candidate.

Newt Gingrich: For Losing his lead in the state of Iowa that he once had.

Ugghhh! (didn't lose nor win)

Huntsman: because he went to Iowa once and didn't even care for these results enough to be there in Iowa, because he  is in New Hampshire. 

Ron Paul: I can't call him a loser, because he got 3rd place in Iowa not very far behind the top two candidates, but he isn't a complete winner, because he reached expectations at 21%.

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