Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Gay Marriage is Contagious

On Nov 4th 2012 The U.S made history passing same sex marriage votes in three states altogether. In 2012 Same Sex Marriage was legal in 9 states and the District of Columbia (DC). 2012 was the year with the most legal same sex marriages votes passing in the U.S.

In 2010
Only 5 states and DC allowed same sex marriage in the U.S
and 10 countries allowed same sex marriage in the World

In 2013
12 states and the DC allow same sex marriage in the U.S
and 14 countries allow same sex marriage in the world

Most of the new countries and some of the new states occurred in the past few months. If Prop 8 is overturned we can add one more american state to the list, and in the next 2 years same sex marriage will be voted on by another dozen something states, which all look poise to pass same sex marriage. Including Ohio the swing state which will hold a vote overturning it's constitutional ban on same sex marriage.

But most importantly 3 out of the 4 new countries all occurred in the past couple months. The developed world and even the developing world is jumping on the ban wagon. Same Sex marriage is legal in most Brazilian States, Finland will soon have a vote that will easily pass, and even religious countries like Israel will have a vote in 2 years to legalize same sex marriage (And multiple major parties are in support of it)

In short this decade will be the great leap in Gay rights throughout the world, and we will most likely see in 2020 a most developed countries in the world legalize same sex marriage.

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

BC Election Prediction and Hopes.

It seems the easy victory the NDP were hoping for was all but swept away after the leadership debate. Granted the NDP are still 7% on average ahead of their closes rivals the Liberal party of British Columbia. It actually peculiar when you think about it that most of the recent provincial elections we had greatly diminished the lead of the front runner come election day (Mainly Quebec and Alberta).

This BC election isn't much different from the Quebec elections. A Liberal party slightly right wing being in power for over a decade, and a new opposition leader coming from the left hoping to change everything. The Major differences of course being that Quebec has the separatist movement and the Incumbent party in BC has a new young leader.

The point I am trying to get across is that I have a hypothesis that the BC Liberals will shrink that gap even more when the ballots are counted. I make this hypothesis based on experience.

First Experience:
In Quebec most people hated Charest, but a solid 30% still voted for him, why? Because Charest ran the economy angle and the I know what I am doing angle too. He made Marois and Francois Legault seem inexperienced and especially Marois bad for business. Christy Clark is playing the same angle. She wants to appear that she is the economically best choice for BC. And come election day Charest closed the 7% gap to a measly 0.7%. Christy Clark won't be as lucky, she isn't running against a sovereigntist who is banging the drums of an issue no one cares about. BC voters may last second buy into the BC Liberal rhetoric that they are better for the economy.

I would predict that the BC NDP will win a majority, and the BC Liberals a close 3-4 points behind. Anyways I hope that the BC Greens do well and carry at least one seat, and there was some hope in the last week with the Greens polling to in the low ten's, but now come election day the Green vote is the least stable and has diminished to 8-9 percent which may not even be attainable, as the BC greens are only running candidates in 61/85 ridings. Still I wish Jane Sterks and the Greens good luck!