Monday, March 26, 2012

How Can the NDP Win.

The NDP stand right now at 106 seats if they want to win a majority government they would have to win 170 seats. that means they would have to gain 64 seats. With 30 new seats coming into the house of commons this will be very preliminary prediction as the makeup of the riding's aren't made yet. Now since Mulcair is leader let me show you the most plausible way the NDP can get into power.

Let's say because Muclair is leader he keeps all his NDP seats from last time get's the extra 3 seats that have just been awarded to Quebec and even get's 4 more seats in the province let's say 2 from Montreal two from rural areas. That's 7 seats. That gives the NDP 65 out of the 78 seats in the province.

In the Atlantic I don't see much room for them to grow except two seats in Nova Scotia. So let's say they get those two seats. That leaves 55 seats to go and as you can see they can't achieve this with just the east they are going to need Ontario and the west.

In Ontario where they will get 15 extra seats we can assume a large portion would go to Toronto. So it would be safe to say a good 6 would go to the NDP if everything stays the way it is, but if the NDP want power they are going to have to do better. surprisingly enough besides the urban urban center of Toronto the outer core they did horrible. they are going to have to break into the outer part of Toronto and try and grab the south part of the province as well as the rural center part.Pretty much nothing short of a big swing to the NDP almost certanly spells death to any odds of a majority government .If they get that big swing I could see them winning 40 seats and instead of 6 out of the 13 new seats how about 10. that would put the NDP at 72 seats out of the 123 seats Ontario will have in 2015. Now I could say that the NDP would get a majority of the seats in Ontario, but I just don't see that happening. I think this is what they could reasonably expect and maybe even expect less.

That leaves 5 seats to go. In the prairies is where the NDP is really going to have to step up their game, but see this is the difficult part for them as it is hard to get rural votes here and still get urban votes in Ontario and especially many votes in Quebec. so if the NDP get the landslide in Ontario and Quebec I would think it hard to get any seats in Alberta (let alone maybe lose their only seat) and in Saskatchewan I don't see them getting any seats there either. In Manitoba they may get one or two Winnipeg seats, but for the sake of argument let's say it turns out to be a zero gain here.

In BC is where I see them able to those last 5 seats and more. In BC if they want to win the plurality of the votes. They have to get the Liberals practically out of Vancouver win those marginal Conservative seats in the rural areas and win strong rural conservative areas if they wish to win BC. So in conclusion this is the scenario I think is most likely for the NDP to achieve power.

Sunday, March 25, 2012

Muclair has A Prayer!

The NDP have officially gotten their official leader. The result was somewhat expected, but some surprises was the amazing showing that Nathan Cullen made. But now that Muclair is leader it's time to start talking about the political map of Canada. With all new leaders it is very normal for the party to rise in the polling very quickly. Especially in Quebec. I wouldn't even be surprised if we actually had a poll that showed the NDP ahead of the Conservatives. That wouldn't be the first, but it hasn't happened in a long time. I only remember learning that it happened for a short time during the Mulroney days. Nevertheless the NDP will have their moment that is for sure. I expect their polling numbers for the next little while to reach 35% and maybe really close to 50% in Quebec! It will be interesting to see how the NDP intend to bump up their Quebec numbers, but what will be more interesting our the attack ads the Conservatives are so going to use against Muclair. Anyways the NDP had their fun it will be soon that the Liberals will have there's. One Interim down , one to go.

Sunday, March 18, 2012

Broken Convention possibility

Romney is the front runner again (and all is back to normal). At this point the only thing that can give Santorum enough delegates for a broken convention is if Gingrich drops out. Santorum could still win more delegates than Romney though. How?

My math Skills at work. You need 1144 delegates to clinch the nomination. If no one get's it then there is a broken convention. Currently of the delegates allocated Romney has a majority which means if things continue as they are Romney is set to get the majority of the delegates therefore winning the nomination. If Santorum surges again or for that matter Gingrich and manage to take 699 delegates of the 1358 delegates still left to be allocated. Now if Gingrich would drop out and endorse Santorum the possibility of a broken convention starts to become impossible. Because in order to have a broken convention it requires that no one have 1144. If Gingrinch endorses Santorum all his delegates go to him. Therefor the delegates can only be divided up in three.   The only other person in would be Ron Paul

so to illustrate

if Santorum get's Gingrich's delegates then the delegates count would be.

Romney: 484 (need's 660)
Santorum: 375 (need's 769)
Paul: 69 (need's 1075)

the amount of delegates left are 1358. If Paul doesn't get much delegates as people project then unless the race get's really tight Santorum or Romney lower the chances of neither of them getting 1144. If all four stay and everyone except Romney  manage together to get 51.5% of the remaining delegates Romney would face a broken convention

Saturday, March 17, 2012

So Illinois?

In Irder for Santorum to have any chance to stop Romney from getting 1144. He will need to win over big states and mid western states. Illinois is one of the states Santorum needs to win if he still wants to win the nomination. Now if Romney wins today he hasn't won anything yet, but it only continues the slow trail Romney is taking to the nomination. In last three polls that were taken in the past few weeks I have made a poll of polls.

here they are
Romney 37.7%
Santorun 31.3%
Gingrich 13.3%
Paul 7.3%

In the last poll held two days ago Romney lead was 9%. The New York Times has Romney at a 86% of winning. I agree with this poll and project Romney would win by around 8%. 

Tuesday, March 06, 2012

Super Tuesday proejections

A few hundred delegates will be up for grabs today and I have a few projection on who will win which state. In 2008 there was more than 20 states this time only 10. (which makes much easier to follow)

This state doesn't have many polls. The last poll was taken in mid February. With Romney at a 7% lead over Santorum, but considering that in mid February Santorum was up in the polls (and now he is down), and that the state borders Massachusetts I would predict this state a solid win for Romney. In second I would say just, because Ron Paul does very well in these New England states he would win second place.

A poll conducted five days ago had Romney at guess what 56% and his nearest rival Santorum at 16% (important to note 17% undecided. Now it is no guess to say Romney will win Massachusetts.

In Virginia only two candidates are running Ron Paul and Romney as none of the other candidates got enough signatures to get on the ballot. a poll done a few days ago has Romney at 69% and Paul at 26%. So again another landslide I predict in the Romney win circle.

Former house speaker Newt Gingrinch came from this state. This state might be his only win, but it will be a win none the less. A poll done just one days ago has him at a 20% lead another done just done two days ago has him at a 10% lead, and another also just done two days ago have him at a lead above 20%. It will be interesting to see how big his lead is. The New York Times have him at a 20% lead I think his lead will be over 20% as with the exception of that 10 point lead poll that is where most of the recent one's have him.

Rick Santorum used to have a decent lead here just a few weeks ago, but recently with a new poll coming out two days ago I doubt this will be a clean sweep. In 2008 during Super Tuesday Missouri split in the Republican side three ways (between Romney Huckabee and McCain) Now guess what it is happening again. Polls have Santorum at 30% Romney at 29% and Gingrich at 29%) I say this will be the closest race today, but if I had to chose I would chose Santorum just because Tennessee would seems like a very strong Rick state considering it's south which Romney has trouble with.

On March 4th seven polls came out. Since Ohio is seens as the big state in this race I will caculated the averages of all 7 polls to make one polls of polls.

here they are
Romney 34.3%
Santorum 32.7%
Gingrich15.6% Paul 10.9%

The New York Times has Romney winning this state with a two point lead, but still says Santorum has a 35% of winning the state. I think if I had to chose I would say Romney wins Ohio but by a margin no greater then 3%

Only two polls surfaced in the past few days one having Santorum at a 11% lead another at 8%. This is a state that Romney hasn't tried hard on so it is a safe Rick Santorum state. The lead I would think is around 10% which is about where the New York Times have it

Idaho and North Dakota
I couldn't find a singel poll in these states and the candidates that I know of haven't spent too much time here so I am basing this projection on 2008 results. In 2008 McCain won the state with 70% (this was when Romney and Huckabee both left the race) his next contender was Paul with 24% one of his best showings in 2008. This time I predict that Idaho will go for Paul. In Montana in 2008 Romney won 38% his next rival was Paul with 25%. I think that considering Paul has outdone his 2008 results in each states so far it isn't far fetch to say Paul could win this state.

The Last poll taken here was in 2010 October. It still had Huckabee and Sarah Palin as choices.  So for this state I go to 2008 where Romney won the state, but Ron Paul again has strong base in this state as well and like Idaho and North Dakota he could make an upset.

Romney wins
Ohio (1-3% Lead)
Massachusetts (over 30%)
Vermont (over 20%)
Virginia (over 30%)
Tennessee (1%-5%)
Oklahoma (10%)
Georgia (20%-25%)
Ron Paul
Idaho (?%)
Montana (?%)
Alaska (?%)

Sunday, March 04, 2012

Sleep all You Want, But Don't Cut!

Well the story says it all for itself. A Conservative MP sleeps at a committee session on veterans. Now before you bash the Conservative sleeping and saying that he doesn't care about veterans I think it is important to know that we have all sleepy moments. I just last Friday night slept way too early and forgot to post something on the blog for Yesterday. It doesn't mean I don't care about my readers.Now the MP denies the claim that he slept  and quite honestly I don't care. The fact that are media continues to talk about pointless topics is really getting on my nerves. I mean even if he did sleep in the committee so what? He may have been tired or worked to late the night before. The point is we don't know so don't judge. But what I do know is the conservative party has done questionable acts against our veterans. They have proposed budget cuts to veterans affairs which created protest all over the country. So Sleeping in parliament doesn't mean you don't support veterans, but we will see what Rob Anders really thinks in the spring budget. If the spring budget includes cuts to veterans benefits and Rob votes for it then we will know for sure what support he has for our veterans.

Read more here

Thursday, March 01, 2012

Harper: Not My Problem!

Harper may have a majority in the Canadian house of commons, but in the provincial legislatures (or National assembly in Quebec) people elected different people in government. Yet Harper is going to push down 137 million dollars in cost down the provinces budget for parole and persecution. While the Federal government would only have to pay an extra 9.7 million in parole and persecution. If Harper wants to waste money he can do that, but the provinces shouldn't be forced to pay money that they legislature of the province don't agree with. Harper likes control and he is trying to control our provinces!

The PBO attempts to calculate how government costs would be different if the measure was in place for the 2008-09 fiscal year. It concludes Ottawa would be on the hook for $7.9-million more in prosecution and parole review costs, while the provinces would face $137-million for higher prosecution, court, prison and parole review costs.
This is only part of the bill other parts of the bill will force our provinces to waste million more on prisons. Just because Harper doesn't want to spend money on this wasteful piece of legislation doesn't mean he should have the right to take control of the priority of the provinces budget. 

However the PBO report cautions this analysis only covers one aspect of one part of Bill C-10 and does not include potential capital costs such as building new prisons. Bill C-10, the “Safe Streets and Communities Act,” is an omnibus bill that brings together nine previously separate pieces of legislation that had been introduced but not passed before the last election.
 Read More here