Sunday, March 31, 2013

Pro Same Sex Marriage GOP Candidate.......Maybe?

With Rob Portman, the senator from Ohio along with the many prominent Republicans like Dick Cheney, Meg Whitman and Laura Bush supporting gay marriage is it possible to see a GOP candidate in 2016 run supporting gay marriage.

In 2012 all the GOP candidates where opposed to same sex marriage. Most in fact supported a constitutional amendment prohibiting the marriage of anyone other than a man and a women. Only John Hutsman supported civil unions. And it should be noted that Ron Paul said that the government should get out of marriage and let everyone pretty much define it for themselves.

Currently most of the candidates that may run don't support marriage equality. John Hutsman who now supports marriage equality may be the only candidate in the 2016 republican primary to support same sex marriage. But the question shouldn't be if a pro same sex marriage candidate is possible, but whether the position is winnable.

Currently most republicans 61% according to current polls are against same sex marriage. But this is also generational, among republicans ages 18-44 46% support and oppose same sex marriage. While 45 and up oppose same sex marriage by a margin of 64%-25%. Considering big major donors of the Republican party come from an older generation it is fair to say a pro gay marriage GOP candidate may find it hard to find influential friends in this party.

The Republicans have only started to warm up to this issue and yes in three years more Republicans will probably change their minds. Especially with the supreme court ruling coming in June  but also in the some 8 states that will have a vote on this issue in the next 2 years.

Anyways the 2016 GOP primaries and Caucuses should be interesting. A fight between the younger Republican generation and the older. The tug of war if you will. Santorum will most likely champion the cause for social conservative, but it will be interesting to see which major candidate will take his challenge. If any?

Saturday, March 30, 2013

Labrador By-Election!

In the midst of scandal Peter Penashue resigned and is seeking re-election in Labrador. This by-election is perfectly placed to be a present for the next Liberal leader. Another seat for a party that lost so much in the last election would be a great present for the parties future leader.

The prospects look very promising. First the big boost is of course the scandals around Peter Penashue will most defiantly make him lose many votes. And in fact that is really all that is needed to elect a Liberal in the next election. Labrador only elected Peter by 78 votes. This riding has a long Liberal history. Since Newfoundland  became a part of Canada in 1948 this riding has only elected a conservative twice. In 1968 and 2011. Every other election since 1948 this riding has elected a Liberal.

Added on to that, the Conservatives have committed practical political suicide in the east supporting drastic changes to Employment insurance. Even the Conservatives support for the seal hunt won`t do much good as the Liberals are also in favor of keeping the seal hunt going. The NDP will have some issue`s though conveying that message. With the Greens even deciding to step out of this election in favor of some sort of co-operation to unseat Peter Penashue (that the NDP refused to take part in) that frees up some 132 progressive votes from the last election, which most certainly will vote for either the Liberals or NDP.

Put all these together and it seems that the Conservatives will be even lucky to place second let alone first. The first place winner looking at the evidence will most likely be Yvonne Jones the Liberal candidate. If the Liberals win this by-election it will grow the Liberal caucus to 36, which is 2 more than the 2011 election results. We are the only major party which has grown in size since 2011. The Conservatives are down 2 so far at 164 and the NDP are 3 down now at 100.

Friday, March 29, 2013

Same Sex Marriage..... About Time!

This week the U.S supreme court has been hearing oral arguments for and against same sex marriage as well as the Defense Of Marriage Act (DOMA). The answers to these cases will come in at the end of June. Quite frankly I am hopeful, but know that the supreme court will probably not make a national consensus on this issue.

The Supreme court of the U.S unlike our own is very politically motivated. It is relatively safe to assume that their our 4 justices on both sides of bench for and against same sex marriage and Anthony Kennedy in the middle is left to decide. What I suspect will probably occur is that the Supreme court will strike down Prop 8 claiming it is unconstitutional. Therefore re-legalizing same sex marriage in the California, and California only. This unfortunately I don`t believe will be a Rov Vs Wade decision, where the entire country is effected by the ruling.

California if the supreme court strikes Prop 8 down will be the 10th state to legalize same sex marriage. Currently there is a push to legalize same sex marriage in Illinois, Hawaii, Ohio, Rhode Island, New Jersey and Delaware. As new polls show that a clear majority of Americans believe that we should let all people marry. Then Marriage equality will only be a matter of time. The supreme court could settle this problem once and for all, or continue this inevitable fight for marriage equality. If DOMA is repealed it will give the thousands of Gay and Lesbians couples already married in 9 states and DC all the rights of marriage.

In the meantime France, New Zealand and the U.K are putting this issue to bed. It`s only a matter of time... it`s only a matter of time.