BC Election Prediction and Hopes.

It seems the easy victory the NDP were hoping for was all but swept away after the leadership debate. Granted the NDP are still 7% on average ahead of their closes rivals the Liberal party of British Columbia. It actually peculiar when you think about it that most of the recent provincial elections we had greatly diminished the lead of the front runner come election day (Mainly Quebec and Alberta).

This BC election isn't much different from the Quebec elections. A Liberal party slightly right wing being in power for over a decade, and a new opposition leader coming from the left hoping to change everything. The Major differences of course being that Quebec has the separatist movement and the Incumbent party in BC has a new young leader.

The point I am trying to get across is that I have a hypothesis that the BC Liberals will shrink that gap even more when the ballots are counted. I make this hypothesis based on experience.

First Experience:
In Quebec most people hated Charest, but a solid 30% still voted for him, why? Because Charest ran the economy angle and the I know what I am doing angle too. He made Marois and Francois Legault seem inexperienced and especially Marois bad for business. Christy Clark is playing the same angle. She wants to appear that she is the economically best choice for BC. And come election day Charest closed the 7% gap to a measly 0.7%. Christy Clark won't be as lucky, she isn't running against a sovereigntist who is banging the drums of an issue no one cares about. BC voters may last second buy into the BC Liberal rhetoric that they are better for the economy.

I would predict that the BC NDP will win a majority, and the BC Liberals a close 3-4 points behind. Anyways I hope that the BC Greens do well and carry at least one seat, and there was some hope in the last week with the Greens polling to in the low ten's, but now come election day the Green vote is the least stable and has diminished to 8-9 percent which may not even be attainable, as the BC greens are only running candidates in 61/85 ridings. Still I wish Jane Sterks and the Greens good luck!

A Green BC seats

In this post I will explain the possibility of a green seat in BC in this coming election May 14th.

Jane Sterk Green party leader will be running in Victoria Beacon Hill. This riding in the last election elected Carole James by a large margin

2009 election result
NDP  13,400    55.4%
Lib       6,375    26.3%
Green   4,106    17.0%
Indep      319     1.3%

This riding carries a lot of advantages for Jane Sterk particularly a high Green party base, but Jane Sterk has no chance of winning this riding in the upcoming election. Why? Because the incumbent party in this riding is the NDP, which if the polls are correct are maintaining most of their support in this riding. The Liberals are currently polling well below what they were polling in 2009 and therefore will most likely fall into third place on May 14th, and even if all those Liberal voters go to Jane Sterk she would still not manage to win this riding, because the NDP will most likely maintain over 50% of the vote.

Why did Jane Sterk pick such an impossible riding? She had so many better options to chose from. Like Sannich North and the Islands or West Vancouver Sea to Sky.

Either of these ridings would have been better. Sannich North would have been good, because Elisabeth May is the Green MP for the riding, and she could try and muster up her supporters to vote for Jane Sterk in the provincial election, and this riding would have also been more ripe for the taking, because the incumbent party running in Sannich North is the Liberal party that is polling almost 15% below where they were in the last election.

West Vacouver Sea to Sky would have also been a better choice for the green party leader Jane. Not only is the incumbent in the riding a Liberal, which provides loads of opportunity for the Greens to grab the seat, but the green party got a strong nearly second place showing in 2009. In fact the Green candidate in the riding got more votes and a greater share of the votes in West Vacouver Sea to Sky than Jane Sterk did in her previous attempt at a seat in Esquimalt-Royal Roads.

The Green party especially those in BC need to understand that they can win in some ridings if they run their best candidates their. The Greens in BC missed a golden opportunity to capture their first seat in the British Columbia assembly by not running their leader in the best riding.

No Green Candidate in Etobicoke Center

In a surprising move Elisabeth may said that she would urge her party not to run a candidate in Etobicoke center a riding that may be forced to have a by-election. First let`s state how much this could help the Liberal party if the Greens didn`t run a candidate. The May 2nd 2011 result was

Conservative Ted       21,661
Liberal          Borys    21,635
NDP             Ana        7,731
Green           Katarina  1,454
Marxist Leninist  Sarah   149

Now with the Greens not running a candidate this is good to be true, but  some would say that the high in the polls NDP may grab the riding. Following a current forum research poll Ontario since 2011 has changed a lot.

Change in percentage since 2011 (in Ontario)
Conservative  40% (-4.4%)
NDP             30.0% (+4.4%)
Liberal          23.0% (-2.3%)
Green ¸           6.0% (+2.2%)

The only thing that is clear is that the Conservatives are down NDP is up and Liberals are just about where they have been since May. So even with the NDP most probably going up in this riding they don`t seem like they will win. Even if  Liberals lose support in the riding we can still win, because the Conservatives might lose more support, but in such a close contest having no Green Party candidate does help Liberals chances in the riding.
   

Liberal-Green Merger

"I think if there's a merger we should be possibly looking at the Green Party. On the environment we have a lot of similarities."

 This statements was done by former MP Marlene Jennings. The Green Party is a party more to the left of the political spectrum. While the Liberals are very much closer to the middle, but the Liberals and the Green both share many important issue's in common or have been in common in the past. The most important of which is are past support of a Carbon tax. The Green party although having out reaching beliefs on all issue's have always kept the same one important issue always at the front. The environment. If we Liberals go back and move to our green shift we can show that a coalition will help the green parties goal, and if we finally create democratic reform not only to the senate, but the house as well we can reach out to the green party. I am not saying we should become the Green party, but the Green party and us both agree on many issue's. Even though sometimes we may have different policies on those issue's our parties are very much similar. While a merger with a more left leaning NDP is widely different from a merger with the Greens. The NDP first of all aren't at all interested, are very ideologically different than us and second of all are way too big and would require a major change to our polices especially now considering there caucus is bigger than ours on Parliament hill, and would force the more center/ center right part of our party to move to the Conservative party. While merging with the Greens wouldn't require too much of a change we already have had great relationships with them, because of our support of the carbon tax in the past, and we could still brand ourselves in the center with Dion we were still in the center, but the NDP is understood as much more to the left .If we can make the case to the Greens that we can help their main issue's get to the front and still be in the middle of the political spectrum then we would both accomplish are goals in a merger. The only problem I would have is if the Green Party wants us to become way to much towards the left then we would no longer be in the center. A coalition with the Greens would benefit both side's and would help stop the splitting of the vote. For these reasons we should defiently consider a merger with the Greens.

Problem with Rebuilding

Me like many Liberals are facing an identity crisis. We have no longer became the natural governing party of Canada we are rather seen as another left wing party. In order for us to rebuild we need to attract the votes that we lost which are old Green party voters that latter turned orange. I am not a green party person, but I have always kind of liked Elisabeth May. My support for her has dwindled lately. As I always agreed with her on a Carbon tax, High speed rail , legalizing pot, green jobs and democratic reform. ever since the beginning I knew the greens where very much to the left, and knew the Liberals where of course the party I wanted to win, but I always thought that there left policies would be okay for me as long as the issue's I stated above was still in there platform. In 2008 when Dion made a deal with May to help her get elected in Central Nova I was hoping for May to kick out Peter McKay. in 2011 I felt we could have helped her win SGI. I supported her in SGI not because she was better than the Liberal candidate, but because she was the only person I felt could have won. If you have the leader of the greens running in a riding it will create a split of the left vote. I felt that In order to beat the Conservative Gary Lunn Elisabeth May was the only Viable candidate. Clearly she was since she won the riding. Now if we want to those old Liberal voters who moved to the Green and then the NDP we have to attract them  back, by making it so that we are united with the greens to eliminate Harper. I am no green party person , but the having a more Greens in Parliament is much better than having the Conservatives.How we do this is we help another Green get elected in West Vancouver sunshine coast- sea to sky country. Where we got 22% and 3rd place and the greens got 7% the Conservative got 45%. If the Greens put a high profile candidate in the riding and we eliminate our Liberal candidate, and ask the Liberals in the riding to unite to beat Harper. In return the Greens would take out some of there candidates to make up the loss we lose in West Vancouver. I chose Toronto as it is the place we need to start rebuilding. Pickering Scarborough east (where we lost by 1200 votes and the Greens got 1600) Don Valley east ( where we lost by 2% and the greens got 3%), Don Valley west (Where we lost by 1% the greens got 3%), Etobicoke Center (where we lost by a few dozen votes the Greens got 3%) and of course Etobicoke lakeshore (where we lost by 5% and the greens got 4% we can still make up the difference I think) If we also shift our policies to democratic reform, Carbon tax and legalizing pot all worthwhile ideas that many Liberals support we can help make the case to the green voters that we are helping Greens getting elected, and eliminating Harper. This will also help us rebuild our Toronto base and stop Harper from getting another majority in 5 years.

P.S there are many other riding's that we the Greens can help the Liberals I just used Toronto, because we really need to rebuild our base there.

Way To Go Greens!

Every election 1993-2008 the Green party has been rowing in support, Reaching new heights in 2004 when they got 4.5% of the vote and in 2008 were they were just 15% behind of getting a seat in Central Nova. This election they may just get what they deserve. In Sannich Gulf Island the Green party released a poll showing that Elisabeth May is 7% above the Conservative Gary Lunn! This means that the Green party could get there very first seat in 2010. Although Polls have the Greens at around the same support they had last election this is probably because Elisabeth May strategy this election was to stay more in here own riding. I wish the Greens well in May 2nd in Sannich Gulf Island, but I hope that Green party supporters across the country understand that in some close riding's were Harper could get his majority it would be the best to vote for the Liberals. In 2008 Elisabeth May said on CBC that what she wanted in 2008 was a Liberal Minority government with some Green party members.  I think having Green party members in Ottawa will help push the focus to the environment and also a carbon tax. But the Best way to get rid of Harper May 2nd is to vote Liberal in some parts of the country and vote Green in Sannich Gulf Island. We must vote strategically to get rid of Harper splitting the left wing vote is what Harper wants.

The Only Carbon Taxers.

The Green party is the only party that supports a Carbon Tax. While the Liberals said no to the Carbon tax, Elisabeth May is still sticking to it. Now this brings up a question what is so bad about a Carbon Tax. Well apparently it's labels you and your party as "Tax and Spend". But I think sometimes people forget that in order to be given more programs like free health care people need to pay taxes. A carbon tax won't tax the average Canadian a carbon tax wants to tax the big major oil industries who pollute, because the price of oil isn't truly the cost of using gasoline. Although oil prices are going up or at least for now hovering around $100 this cost for a barrel of oil is too cheap for the real cost of gasoline. In order to truly understand the cost of oil we have to understand what Co2 does for the planet economically. With more drastic weather farming would dramatically suffer. Meaning countries or parts of countries that need a good rainy season to make there economy work will suffer. (ex: Saskatchewan) Also in California a study produced showed that smog pollution cost the state 521 million dollars! The Liberals are promising about that on Child Care. We have to look at hat pollution does to the economy. Pollution causes storms that stops a whole day of economic growth. Katrina completely destroyed the economy of New Orleans and the whole state of Louisiana as well. to much pollution in lakes or oceans can kill fish which will hurt the fishing industry in the east or even in the great lake region. We need to increase the cost of oil to it's true cost. The only way to do that is to make a carbon tax so that oil is priced at it's true cost. Some would say that it will make oil more expensive and increased the cost of living. I don't disagree with that. But that increase in cost is equal if not less then the cost we as a nation will pay for the climate catastrophes in the country, or the price of the fishing or agricultural industry going under. A carbon tax doesn't make things more expensive it rather tries to avoid cost in the future that you will have to pay , and the next generation as well.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/07/cv-election-day13.html

Green's not in debate!

I find it incredible that you can represent almost 1 million people and not be in the debate. The court won't Elisabeth May in the debate. I still am hooping to see her at the debate. She just got in last election. And now she has even more support than 2008 and they won't let 900,000 Canadian voices to be heard. The Green Party has proven that they are a strong party. They have proven that they are a major political party it is just by circumstance that there support is spread out the country. But if do the math they could get many seats. In the last election the total amount of votes is 13,834,394 if you divide by 308 (the number of riding's) each riding in the last election had around 44,917 votes in total. The Green party got 937,613 votes in the last election. Now in order to get a seat you just need to get more votes than all the others parties which could be 29% or in some circumstances lower. But let's see how many seats the Greens could get if we divide there votes into a few riding's. So let's say that in order for the Green party to get a seat they need 50% +1 votes in a riding. (44,917 divide by 2= 22458.5 a majority is 22,459) Let's see how many seats the Green could get if you took there votes and pushed them into those riding's. (937,613 divide by 22,459= 41.74) To be fair I will round downwards. So if you take there votes and put them in the right places the Greens could get 41 seats more than the NDP currently have. It just goes to show the Green party is big enough to be on the national debates. In fact the amount of votes to be an official party in Ottawa is only 269,508 votes the Green got almost double that in 2004 and 2006. The Green Party deserves to be in this debate.

Strategic Voting!

I think Harper must be eliminated and the only way we truly can do that is voting Liberal nationally, but we shouldn't kid ourselves. It is true voting the Liberal is the best thing we can do to replace Harper, but in some riding's it the best thing we can do for the Liberal party is to vote for the NDP or the Greens. Now in most riding's across the country we should vote for Ignatieff, but in just a handful of riding's we should vote for the other parties. In Saanich—Gulf Islands according to 308.com The Green party is just 7% behind the conservative candidate, voting Liberal there would help Gary Lunn get reelected and give Harper another minority. In this riding we must in order to create a Liberal government vote Green to eliminate the Conservative party candidate. If you do the math having one more progressive MP and 1 less conservative MP will help the Liberals have a government as Harper has fewer seats, but just taking off Conservative candidate's in a few riding's across the country will not do it. We need to make a concerted effort to vote Liberal even in NDP riding's like Outremont, because if you do the math again the having one more Liberal and one less NDP does more to eliminate Harper then voting for the NDP. Because voting NDP and electing an NDP will just let Harper stay having a Liberal instead helps Ignatieff get elected and by doing that replacing Harper. We must vote to eliminate Harper, and the only way to do that is to vote Liberal across the country. Like in Brampton Ontario the Liberal just beat the Conservative in the last election. If we split the vote there we will get another Conservative. If the NDP voters and Green voters vote for the Liberals they will stop Harper and help replace him. In Helena Guergis seat because now they are splitting the right wing vote if the NDP and the Greens in that riding vote Liberal we can get that seat away from the conservatives or people who vote with the conservative. Make no mistake the only party that can replace Harper is the Liberals, but a seat that we should keep NDP is Linda Duncan seat in Alberta Liberals in order to stop Harper should help her get elected. We must strategically vote, but this only proves that we must put in place BC-STV or IRV systems so we don't have to vote for one candidate in the fear that Harper will get elected. IRV and BC-STV let's us vote are heart's instead of voting are fears.

Elect Elizabeth May

Although I may be a Liberal I am a proud supporter of Elizabeth May. She is the Green party leader, And if I was living in Saanich—Gulf Islands I would volunteer for the Green party, while still hoping for A liberal win nationally. Now Elizabeth May is going to have a tough race. Even though it's has above average Green party support it is still far away from the Conservatives Gary Lunn. He last time around got 43.43% of the vote near 50% which is hard to beat. The Liberals last time were in a close second 39.36% and the Greens in third place with 10.45%. Now I wish Elizabeth May good luck in her campaign to get the first elected Green party seat. But I think the Liberals are missing out on an opportunity here. In 2008 Stephane Dion made a deal with the Greens he didn't put a candidate in her riding in Central Nova and she in return didn't put a candidate in his rinding. This helped May a lot , because now she had a shot at taking Mckay out of his riding. Because last time the Liberals got 24% now that 24% went into a undecided pool she took votes from the NDP and got 34% of the vote in 2008. In Saanich—Gulf Islands if you take out the Liberals she would have an even better shot at winning. I think the Liberals shouldn't have run a candidate there so that Elizabeth may can kick out a Conservative incumbent and in exchange the Greens don't run a candidate in Kitchener center where the Liberals lost by just under 1% if the Greens take out there candidate in the riding were they got 8% the Liberals would win easily.Now about the Liberals and greens who live in those riding's who now have no one to campaign I think the Liberal party should grant access to those greens in Kitchener center to be Liberal party volunteers and members for the campaign and the Greens should allow the Liberals in Saanich—Gulf Islands to be Green party members for the campaign and volunteers.With that you have 2 conservatives incumbents out of office a green party member in and a smaller chance Harper will get a majority. But this is very unluckily, as Liberals are already running a candidate there and the Liberal party unfortunately doesn't believe in a carbon tax currently. But I think May even without the Liberals help can win her political strategy unlike her 2008 is to stay in her riding more.

Only in Quebec.

The lasted Ekos polls shows that the Conservatives are still ahead of the Liberals by 6%, but some intersting poll numbers from Quebec just made me laugh. The polls had the Bloc ahead at 37% while in second place the Liberals are at 22%, but third place is the Green party at 13%. The Conservatives are at 12% and so are the NDP. Now to be fair the margin of error is 5%, but to have a poll where the conservatives are behind the Green just shows how much people in Quebec hate the Conservatives. Now Liberals have there own problems in BC where the Green party is at 20% and the Liberals are at 19%. Now In BC the margin of error is 10% twice as high then Quebec. Harper will never have a majority when he has to fight the green Party just to get seats in Quebec. Harper might be winning across the country, but here in Quebec Harper is less populare than the Enviromentalist and is just ahead of the "socialist" (as Harper would call them)

If Only Youth Voted...

Canada's Parliament would be completely different, if only youth voted. People aged 18-24 would elect a Liberal minority government with 104 seats and 23% support. However, the surprise starts now. The Conservatives would be reduced to 46 seats and 18% support. The Bloc would be the Official Opposition with 60 seats and a solid 40% in Quebec with the Liberals second, hovering near 20%. THe NDP would get 18% and 53 seats, and the Green Party would get 22% of the popular vote and 43 seats! This means that the progressive parties need to get the youth to vote in bigger numbers. Last election, only 37% of youth eligible to vote exercised their power. It is essential for the Canadian left to persuade these people, and a good source of support to vote for them. This would completely rupture the Conservatives, who in turn would lose a lot of support. Now imagine, 43 Conservative seats. We would become a role model in the world once again.

Canada’s youth would elect a Liberal minority government, with a substantial increase in representation for the New Democrats, Bloc Québécois, and Greens, according to projections based on recent polls of Canadians between the ages of 18 and 24. The Conservative Party would be severely reduced, virtually wiped out east of Manitoba.

Read more at the Globe and Mail.

Green seat in Canada?

Elisabeth May Green party leader of Canada said that acquiring a Green seat is top priority. Could it actually happen? Well the seat May has decided to run this time is on the other side of the country. In BC in a riding that last election had a 11% voting for the green party candadate. Now the problem with this seat is that the conservatives had 43% and the Libral had 39% in the 2008 election with this you can say that this seat is way out of reach. I think with a high profile candadite that she is she could make a deant in this riding to make her party presence here very strong. In Central Nova she got the riding from 2% green to 32% green, but she got help considering the Liberals didn't put a candidate there that last time got 23%. Now the riding is diffrent instead of being in a riding where the Green party only got 2% before she came she is in a riding more open to enviromental issues.Elisabeth May was in a byelection in 2006 where she went from the 2006 election results of 5% green , and at the byelection brought both Conservative and Liberals down 5% and she rose to 25% green. Now her new riding she has been in and campaign longer than the by election one. So she could still win this by a small edge or lose by 20%, but again all politics is local.

No clear national winner, but someone defenietly won.

The Australian election although showing a hung parliament that will defiantly need support from smaller parties to have a a strong government. The only winner now is the Green Party. Yeah Australia has voted in Green MP to there government, and if things go good with Labor Australia could have a carbon tax. Election still a little close latest results are spread a little all around, but so far Labor has 71 Liberal has 71 Green 1 Independents 3. 4 seats still not yet given . So at the end it could go either way. I hope to see a Labor minority government with the Green party and independents helping. Australia just like the U.K has now a member in parliament that supports environmental policies, because a government with enough Green party seats to make sure that the environment is seen when legislation occurs is the best that can happen. Now if we can only have a green party member in Canada.