Labrador By-Election!

In the midst of scandal Peter Penashue resigned and is seeking re-election in Labrador. This by-election is perfectly placed to be a present for the next Liberal leader. Another seat for a party that lost so much in the last election would be a great present for the parties future leader.

The prospects look very promising. First the big boost is of course the scandals around Peter Penashue will most defiantly make him lose many votes. And in fact that is really all that is needed to elect a Liberal in the next election. Labrador only elected Peter by 78 votes. This riding has a long Liberal history. Since Newfoundland  became a part of Canada in 1948 this riding has only elected a conservative twice. In 1968 and 2011. Every other election since 1948 this riding has elected a Liberal.

Added on to that, the Conservatives have committed practical political suicide in the east supporting drastic changes to Employment insurance. Even the Conservatives support for the seal hunt won`t do much good as the Liberals are also in favor of keeping the seal hunt going. The NDP will have some issue`s though conveying that message. With the Greens even deciding to step out of this election in favor of some sort of co-operation to unseat Peter Penashue (that the NDP refused to take part in) that frees up some 132 progressive votes from the last election, which most certainly will vote for either the Liberals or NDP.

Put all these together and it seems that the Conservatives will be even lucky to place second let alone first. The first place winner looking at the evidence will most likely be Yvonne Jones the Liberal candidate. If the Liberals win this by-election it will grow the Liberal caucus to 36, which is 2 more than the 2011 election results. We are the only major party which has grown in size since 2011. The Conservatives are down 2 so far at 164 and the NDP are 3 down now at 100.

Election Tampering! MAYBE!

Elections can get ugly and in the last election it was apparently especially ugly. With constant amount of evidence showing that people in many ridings were called to lie about a polling station change. If it can be proven that enough people were disenfranchised from voting in a riding there can be by-election. Now I can't say that all the allegations are true, because I always maintain the "innocent till proven guilty" approach, but I think that if it can be proven and if enough By elections are held it can be possible that the Conservatives will lose seats.

there are enough ridings that it could be possible (important word possible) that the Conservatives if by-elections are called could lose the 12 or more seats which would mean Harper would lose his majority. Now this is very out there and I won't hold my breath for this to happen, but even with the odds very low I still think it is entirely possible that Harper could lose some seats. 

Dion Is Right!

Stephane Dion the former Liberal leader for two years, and supported the Carbon tax has put the whole Turmel affair in perspective. He raised a few question that I found absolutely brilliant. He made it clear that a leader can change their  political stripes, but the fact that Turmel tried to hide something that happened so recently isn't transparent.

During and after the last campaign, Turmel was asked repeatedly about the support she had given Bloc candidates when she was a union leader. At that time she was presented with an opportunity to reveal her past membership in the Bloc, and her ongoing membership in Québec Solidaire. But she did not. That information only became public as a result of a reporter’s investigation, and that is completely unacceptable.

 Another thing Dion raised was Turmel's Explanation. She claimed that the only reason she became a member of the party that wanted to separate Quebec was, because she wanted to support her friend, but just because your friend is in a different party you don't have to be a card carrying member or for that matter vote for them. The Libertarian on the Blog is my friend, but  I am not joining the Libertarian party for him nor do I expect for him to come to the Liberal party, because he is my friend. Dion and me both agree that the NDP have to be more transparent. And I think that Turmel should decide now on whether she wants to stay a member of Quebec Solidaire or not.

 The NDP is now left with only one choice: it must opt for transparency. How many NDP MPs were, or still are, members of sovereignist parties? Will they remain so? How many would vote for independence if a referendum were held?

Read Dion's entire post here 

Money and elections

It is common knowledge that money wins elections. If we look at tables containing the candidates and the money they spent, there is a clear correlation between money spent and who wins. This is the whole basis for most of the uproar about sponsorship scandals. But remember : correlation is not causation. Although more money might cause higher chances of victory, it could be that higher chances of victory causes more money. Or it could be that a candidate's appeal to the voting public causes both money and high victory percentages.

Let's first use an analogy to simplify the issue. When do you cheer for a sports team:

A) When they have a sure win

B) When they stand a possibility of loosing

C) When they stand a possibility of winning

D) When they have a sure loss

Most people would answer A, B, and C. If you answered A, it is probably because you wanted to cheer for your favourite team, which is currently dominating. If you answered B, it is probably to encourage your team to play a bit harder to minimise the chances of a loss. If you answered C, it was probably to get the final push going and claim victory. But if you answered D, it is because the team is your favourite, and it is unlikely that you would ever not cheer for it. Now just replace "team" with "politician and party", and "cheer" with money.

But if you don't like the logic type of argument, because the situation is actually more complex, then entreat the statistical argument. In the book Freakonomics, authors Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner provide statistical proof that the candidates spending hardly matters at all when it comes to elections. They do this by comparing elections where the same candidates ran against each other (because the candidate is relatively constant). They found that when a candidate slashed their spending in half, they lost only 1% of their vote. (They used the 1000+ Congressional races where two candidates ran together for several times in a row, from 1970 until 2005, when the book was published. You can read the entirety of this argument on pages 8 to 11.)

But if you present the anecdotal evidence of various politicians who were elected "by money", as it would seem, allow me to present counter-evidence. Steve Forbes and Michael Huffington did not win their elections, and neither did Thomas Golisano, who spent $93 million of his own money over three elections, and won 4%, 8%, and 14%.

In conclusion, money does not win elections, and neither do elections win money. The chances of success of a candidate, based on their personality, their appearance, their charisma, and their platform win elections. Money is simply a byproduct of the of the chances, and has very little effect, the same way cheering has very little effect on the game at hand.

The Tipping Point

The Harper government has seen many scandals in past years. Just recently, there is the "in-and-out" funding scheme and an instance of "I am the state," when our prime minister changed "Government of Canada" to "the Harper government." Yes there is backlash, but there is no outrage against the Tories. Maybe it's because the opposition isn't efficient and isn't pressing the Conservatives. Maybe it's because a marginal amount of Canadians are paying attention to politics.

In any case, there will be a tipping point for the Tories and they will pay dearly when the stuff keeps piling up. There is already so much that is against the Conservatives and one day, some day, they will pay the price. Hopefully during the next election.

It’s not the parts that count but the sum of the parts. Which invites the question: Is anyone doing the math? 

Just recently, four senior Conservatives (including two senators) were charged with willfully exceeding spending limits in the 2006 campaign that brought the Tories to power. The “in and out” financing scheme came at the same time that Stephen Harper was promising a new era of transparency and accountability.

Read more at the Globe and Mail. 

Related articles

• PMO directive rebrands 'Harper Government' (cbc.ca)
• Opposition looks to scandals, not budget, to bring down Tories (thestar.com)

Where do Recylable items go?

The idea was that if you put plastic into that blue bin of yours than it would be reused and reused again and again, but a report shows that 80% of our recyclable stuff goes to China to be reused then put to make products around the world. I thought the idea was that the plastic bottles were reused and made more plastic bottles. I think that we need to have Canadian Recycable factories giving jobs to Canadians to recycle our plastic properly and ensure that we recycle properly, and not make products into one time use products that will be thrown out into the garbage. Now I am not discouraging recycling, because it is better that we at least recycle the product once rather than just throwing out the plastic.

poker face= don't ask don't tell

Lady gaga a very popular singer in North America was fighting to get senators to vote to continue discussing a bill that would repeal the in just law of don't ask don't tell. Her effort although good was not strong enough to get the bill up for a vote.The policy don't ask don't tell was implemented in 1993 as a compromise by Bill Clinton to allow gays in the military only if they stay in the closet. This was because before 1993 gays where not allowed to join the military, and before that being gay was considered a mental illness n the military. The vote was taken September 21. 56 voted to allow the debate 43 voted against.It won the majority , but in order to allow the debate to continue you need 60 votes.
See Lady Gaga's message here
Read more here

A blast from the past.

One of my first post on this blog was that there where accusations on the president of the humane society has abused animals. Now in city hall the case was dropped , because the data was not brought properly in acordince with the law. Now I think that if there is proof then the prosecution should cntinue investingation to gather information properly so that they can make sure that if there is enough proof that something happened then the president should pay his due.

The Crown told the court the search warrant and the manner in which it was executed during the raids on Nov. 26 at the River St. shelter was a "serious breach" of the Canadian Charter of Rights, lawyer Frank Addario said.

BP when will I ever stop hearing your name.

First BP breaks an oil rig and creates the worst oil spill in American history. Then there where proof that BP knew that an oil rig could have been broken if they didn't fix it, but they ignored it. Then there was the whole BP scandal that they underestimated the oil disaster. They still of course then had hundreds of people come in for the president on the beach that they eventually left as soon as Obama turned his back. Now they hired people without any sort of background check to see if they where sex offenders. I don't know if they can do much more. The fact that they are still a living business is nothing short of a miracle. I can't believe that they allowed sex offenders to work without knowing that they where sex offenders. To be fair of course some clean up places did have background checks that did hire sex offenders, and they where watched and they said that nothing happened.

A lack of screening of oil spill cleanup workers meant a sex offender got a job, and left him free to rape a colleague according to a Mississippi county sheriff.

Rundy Charles Robertson, 41, who faces charges of sexual battery and failure to register as a sex offender, is in the Jackson County, Mississippi, jail with bail set at $505,000.

 Read more here 

Fire Away!

An MP from Calgary wrote on a card for Canadian troops, "When in doubt, pull the trigger." What a good attitude to the war in Afghanistan. The Conservative MP says that this expression is common in military use and means keep safe and to defend yourself. I actually believe him. However, I do think he could have used different words to express what he means. There is no need to offend people for no reason. He might need to make a few apologies, and that is fine. This MP wished well for the troops just as we all do. This should nevertheless be a lesson to others. Think before speaking, writing or expressing yourself in public.

Controversial Calgary West member of Parliament Rob Anders is coming under fire for a well-wishing note he left for Canadian troops that says: "When in doubt, pull the trigger."

A Christian group, El Shafie Ministries, asked if a large "Support Our Troops" card could be placed in the House of Commons lobbies for MPs to sign in Ottawa -- a request agreed to by the Conservatives and opposition parties.

Read more at the National Post.

Tea Party leader rasict

The tea party leader, Mark Williams blogged about a new mosque, and a new Islamic cultural center near ground zero. He said the mosque would be a place where the Muslims would pray to there "terrorists monkey-god." I think this is racist for him to say such a thing about another religion and for trying to make the connection between Islam and terrorism is just horrific. I think we can all agree that Mark Williams should apologize, but he sent an email to the media saying that he wasn't sorry. He even said that he meant to connect terrorism and Islam. Mark is setting a bad example for the tea party, and I can speak for many people when saying that racism should have no part in a democratic country.

"The monument would consist of a Mosque for the worship of the terrorists' monkey-god," Williams, a frequent guest on CNN, wrote on his Web site

In an e-mail to the Daily News, Williams was unapologetic - saying his comments were specifically aimed at the terrorists, which he described as "the animals of Allah."

Read more at the Daily News.

The Compromise

All political parties in Parliament have reached a decision regarding the Afghan detainee documents. There will be a committee of MPs from all four parties reviewing the uncensored documents to decide which of them other MPs and the public should view. Personally, I don't think we should have come to a compromise. I don't think Harper is willing to go to the polls right now. He would have had to hand over all the documents. Now, this compromise is fine, I just think that we, the public, should be able to get the full uncensored documents. I hope we won't have any more black pages.

OTTAWA—A last-minute deal on the release of Afghan detainee documents has been reached by government and opposition MPs.

Justice Minister Rob Nicholson tabled the agreement in the House of Commons, saying it will allow a committee of MPs from all four parties to review documents in their “unredacted” or uncensored form, to determine whether they are relevant to a Parliamentary investigation into the treatment of detainees handed over to Afghan authorities.

 Read more at the Toronto Star.
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Conservative Censors

Go on any Conservative blog and you will find them calling the left-wingers censors. However, we now find out that a Tory political aide sent an email to Public Works, telling them not to release a report demanded by the Canadian Press. They were obligated to release it under the law and the government had already approved it. Instead of following the law, a censored version was released 82 days after the due date. What's going on here? Why was this guy allowed to censor documents that had already been approved? There is obviously something wrong in organization if one person can set of a chain of events which ends in censorship. On the other hand, it's great that he admitted his error. Everyone should show responsibility for their actions like this. There should be an investigation into this affair.

Un attaché politique du Parti conservateur qui fait l'objet d'une enquête après avoir empêché la divulgation d'un rapport aux médias a admis que son geste était «stupide».

Sébastien Togneri a affirmé devant un comité des Communes, jeudi, qu'il avait commis une «erreur». C'est la première fois que l'employé reconnaît sa responsabilité dans cette affaire. Il a ainsi admis qu'il avait transmis, dans l'urgence, un courriel stupide. Flanqué de son avocat, il a ajouté que c'était une erreur de sa part et que c'était tout ce qu'il avait à dire.

http://goo.gl/Bg44

Partisan Spending

The Ethics Commissioner has condemned the partisan spending of the Conservatives. This includes putting big Tory logos on government spending. This gives people the idea that the Conservatives are funding it from their own money. I say that since they put their logo on the cheques, they should pay for all the money from the government. There shouldn't be such a thing as free advertising. The bad thing is that the ethics watchdog cannot do anything about it. It will be up to Harper's government to change on its own.

OTTAWA -- The federal ethics watchdog says the Harper government crossed the line when it used ceremonial cheques with logos of the Conservative party or identifying local Tory MPs to make government announcements.

But in a report released on Thursday, Mary Dawson, the conflict of interest and ethics commissioner, said she cannot do anything about it.

 Read more at the National Post.

WIN!!!

The federal Tories have two weeks to provide Parliament with the full uncensored documents. It's been a long fight but we finally won. Today, the Speaker announced that the Conservatives would be in violation of the privileges of Parliament if they didn't provide the documents. Though the documents wouldn't be made public, the opposition MPs would still get to look at them. The MPs have two weeks to sort out a compromise or the speaker will assist in it. I'm sure that the opposition will not back down from seeing the full uncensored documents. They may compromise on other demands.

OTTAWA—The speaker of the House of Commons, charged with settling a power struggle between the Conservative government and the opposition gave both sides two weeks on Tuesday to sort out their differences.

Peter Milliken announced his decision after opposition parties asked him to find government ministers guilty of contempt for refusing to hand over uncensored files on people detained by the Canadian military in Afghanistan.

Read more at the Toronto Star.

Go on Harper, Worry

Throughout the recent scandals Harper's government has been facing, he has been trying to distance himself from the problem. Firing Guergis, calling Jaffer a private citizen and dumping Afghan detainee documents on the Speaker's desk are all part of those kinds of actions. If these kinds of things keep happening to Harper, he has reason to worry. The next few scandals could be the straw that broke the camel's back. In fact, the recent EKOS poll already shows Harper's numbers hurt by the recent scandals, especially the Guergis one. This shows that Harper hasn't really done a good job at distancing himself from the scandals around him. Not that any smart Canadian wouldn't see through his antics. All we need is big ideas and more of the truth around Harper's government revealed to whittle down his support.

With the controversy around Helena Guergis growing and at least one poll showing support for the Conservatives sagging, Harper now has reason to worry, pollster Frank Graves warns.

"He's got to have ... cold beads of sweat popping out on his brow right now. He's got to be very uncomfortable," said Graves, president of EKOS Research Associates Inc.

Read about it at the Toronto Star.

Back Down You Go

According to a new EKOS poll, the Tories are back down at 31.4% support and the Liberals back up at 29% support. Basically, the Liberals are more or less tied with the Conservatives. Good news for us. Let's plough straight through Stephen Harper's thin support. He can lose it any time (besides Alberta) as demonstrated during his prorogation. Two scandals at the same time now are attacking the Tories' support: the Guergis-Jaffer scandal and the Afghan detainee scandal. Libs are making gains in Ontario and mostly stealing away form the Cons. This is only good news for us.

In fact, Mr. Graves and his team are calling it more than that – they say the Tories have been “Guergisized!”“The resignation and controversy around Helena Guergis and her husband seems to have jumpstarted a moribund electorate in a way that ideas and debate could not,” he says.

Read about it at the Globe and Mail or CBC. Read the full results of the poll here.

There's no business like Torture!

A Canadian interpreter who worked for the Canadian Forces in Afghanistan said that soldiers shot an innocent 17 year old, and then proceeded to round up a 10 year old and a 90 year old and transferred them to the Afghan security service. Let's make it clear from now on. He was not a witness, but, he says he read an intelligence report on the issue. He goes on to make another series of accusing claims. Look, I'm tired of blogging about this subject and I think most people are tired of reading on this subject. But I won't relent until we know the truth. Come on Harper. Release the documents.

OTTAWA -- The Canadian military "subcontracted torture" to the Afghan security service and shot an unarmed 17-year-old man in the back of the head, alleges an Afghan-Canadian who worked as an interpreter for the Canadian armed forces in Afghanistan.

Read about it at the National Post or the Toronto Star.

Hells angels Conservative?

The Toronto Star reports that Rahim Jaffer, former Tory MP and a man who says he is a former banker for the Hell's Angels tried to sell his political influence. Harper denies that Jaffer had any influence on the Tories and maintains that he is a private citizen.

"Mr. Jaffer is a private citizen and he is responsible for himself and I have no comment to add to that matter," Harper said. "Obviously, I read the newspapers yesterday. The suggestions that were made that Mr. Jaffer has an open door to my office are completely false."

But just a few days ago, he still had the Con. logo on his website. I'm sorry, but you can't have the best of both worlds. This is adding to his drunk driving and drug charges that he accumulated a year ago and got off with minimal charges. So much for "tough on crime." Anyway, we need to make sure that there is no corruption in the government. Harper kicked Guergis out of Conservative caucus and called in the RCMP. There could be heavy charges involved. We'll have to wait and see.

Tiger returns to golf

As we all may know Tiger is now back, and playing in the Masters. Now many people are now are forgiving of Tiger, but it is shown that men have been more forgiving then women. Tiger's sponsers have come back, but none have actually said they were "pround sponser of Tiger" . This might not happend in a while, but i think we should leave Tiger alone now. If any of you think he should not play ever then do not watch him play, and if you think he should be with his wife instead of playing. It is his life not your's so i say let us move on, and leave Tiger alone to do whatever he wants with life.