Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Gay Marriage is Contagious

On Nov 4th 2012 The U.S made history passing same sex marriage votes in three states altogether. In 2012 Same Sex Marriage was legal in 9 states and the District of Columbia (DC). 2012 was the year with the most legal same sex marriages votes passing in the U.S.

In 2010
Only 5 states and DC allowed same sex marriage in the U.S
and 10 countries allowed same sex marriage in the World

In 2013
12 states and the DC allow same sex marriage in the U.S
and 14 countries allow same sex marriage in the world

Most of the new countries and some of the new states occurred in the past few months. If Prop 8 is overturned we can add one more american state to the list, and in the next 2 years same sex marriage will be voted on by another dozen something states, which all look poise to pass same sex marriage. Including Ohio the swing state which will hold a vote overturning it's constitutional ban on same sex marriage.

But most importantly 3 out of the 4 new countries all occurred in the past couple months. The developed world and even the developing world is jumping on the ban wagon. Same Sex marriage is legal in most Brazilian States, Finland will soon have a vote that will easily pass, and even religious countries like Israel will have a vote in 2 years to legalize same sex marriage (And multiple major parties are in support of it)

In short this decade will be the great leap in Gay rights throughout the world, and we will most likely see in 2020 a most developed countries in the world legalize same sex marriage.

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

BC Election Prediction and Hopes.

It seems the easy victory the NDP were hoping for was all but swept away after the leadership debate. Granted the NDP are still 7% on average ahead of their closes rivals the Liberal party of British Columbia. It actually peculiar when you think about it that most of the recent provincial elections we had greatly diminished the lead of the front runner come election day (Mainly Quebec and Alberta).

This BC election isn't much different from the Quebec elections. A Liberal party slightly right wing being in power for over a decade, and a new opposition leader coming from the left hoping to change everything. The Major differences of course being that Quebec has the separatist movement and the Incumbent party in BC has a new young leader.

The point I am trying to get across is that I have a hypothesis that the BC Liberals will shrink that gap even more when the ballots are counted. I make this hypothesis based on experience.

First Experience:
In Quebec most people hated Charest, but a solid 30% still voted for him, why? Because Charest ran the economy angle and the I know what I am doing angle too. He made Marois and Francois Legault seem inexperienced and especially Marois bad for business. Christy Clark is playing the same angle. She wants to appear that she is the economically best choice for BC. And come election day Charest closed the 7% gap to a measly 0.7%. Christy Clark won't be as lucky, she isn't running against a sovereigntist who is banging the drums of an issue no one cares about. BC voters may last second buy into the BC Liberal rhetoric that they are better for the economy.

I would predict that the BC NDP will win a majority, and the BC Liberals a close 3-4 points behind. Anyways I hope that the BC Greens do well and carry at least one seat, and there was some hope in the last week with the Greens polling to in the low ten's, but now come election day the Green vote is the least stable and has diminished to 8-9 percent which may not even be attainable, as the BC greens are only running candidates in 61/85 ridings. Still I wish Jane Sterks and the Greens good luck!

Thursday, April 18, 2013

A Green BC seats

In this post I will explain the possibility of a green seat in BC in this coming election May 14th.

Jane Sterk Green party leader will be running in Victoria Beacon Hill. This riding in the last election elected Carole James by a large margin

2009 election result
NDP  13,400    55.4%
Lib       6,375    26.3%
Green   4,106    17.0%
Indep      319     1.3%

This riding carries a lot of advantages for Jane Sterk particularly a high Green party base, but Jane Sterk has no chance of winning this riding in the upcoming election. Why? Because the incumbent party in this riding is the NDP, which if the polls are correct are maintaining most of their support in this riding. The Liberals are currently polling well below what they were polling in 2009 and therefore will most likely fall into third place on May 14th, and even if all those Liberal voters go to Jane Sterk she would still not manage to win this riding, because the NDP will most likely maintain over 50% of the vote.

Why did Jane Sterk pick such an impossible riding? She had so many better options to chose from. Like Sannich North and the Islands or West Vancouver Sea to Sky.

Either of these ridings would have been better. Sannich North would have been good, because Elisabeth May is the Green MP for the riding, and she could try and muster up her supporters to vote for Jane Sterk in the provincial election, and this riding would have also been more ripe for the taking, because the incumbent party running in Sannich North is the Liberal party that is polling almost 15% below where they were in the last election.

West Vacouver Sea to Sky would have also been a better choice for the green party leader Jane. Not only is the incumbent in the riding a Liberal, which provides loads of opportunity for the Greens to grab the seat, but the green party got a strong nearly second place showing in 2009. In fact the Green candidate in the riding got more votes and a greater share of the votes in West Vacouver Sea to Sky than Jane Sterk did in her previous attempt at a seat in Esquimalt-Royal Roads.

The Green party especially those in BC need to understand that they can win in some ridings if they run their best candidates their. The Greens in BC missed a golden opportunity to capture their first seat in the British Columbia assembly by not running their leader in the best riding.

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

RNC of the 20th Century.

The Republican National Committee continues to live in the past. Just recently the RNC has passed a resolution affirming that the national Republican policy on same sex marriage is that marriage is only between a man and a women.

Even as many Republicans are coming out in support of same sex marriage the RNC continues to deny the inevitable, and continues to drag along this issue, which is one of the past.  The RNC at the same meeting last week stated that they do have a problem reaching out to minorities. The RNC stated that they need to be reaching out to African Americans, Latinos and Asian Americans, but have provided no road map on how to do it.

The RNC is being pressured by right wing groups like the Family Research Council to maintain their outdated polices, and this will be problematic for the RNC. This tug of war between social conservatives and social conservatives is one that has existed for many years but has became amplified since the tea party movement in 2010.

In 2012 you would think that the RNC would have learned it's lesson that only pandering to social conservatives in your base won't help you appeal to moderates. The Tea Party movement may have died down, but the vast majority of Republicans are still claiming to be apart of the tea party. Senators like Ted Cruz shows how much the Republican party is stuck back in the 20th century.

With over 52% of young Republicans supporting Gay-Marriage and with 60% of young people believing that abortion will be legal. It will be very hard for many Social Republicans to run for re-election in the following years running on the current RNC policy platform.

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

BC Election.... No Show.

The British Colombian election is set for May 14th, and it's pretty straight forward. People in BC no longer support the BC liberals after three consecutive terms. BC Liberals have been losing popularity since they won the 2009 BC election.

The NDP started out the year nearly at 50%, and having twice as much support as the Liberals. The BC Conservatives which usually get 3-4% in the polls started to eat away at the BC Liberals support, and almost took second place just a Little over a year ago. But ever since May 2013 the BC Conservatives have collapsed and the BC liberals have started building up some support.

Right now the election looks like a no show, but their our some interesting things to look out for.

1. The support and seat capability of the Greens
2. The strength of the Conservatives
3. How big will the NDP win

1. The greens
The Greens are currently polling at around 10-13% which is very high for the Green party in British Columbia. Unfortunately the Greens won't get a seat in this election most likely. Jane Sterk decided to run in Victorian Beacon Hill which was a bad decision. This riding is home of the former leader of the BC NDP Carole James who carried the riding with 55% of the vote in 2009. With NDP polling above their 2009 levels it will be hard to see how the Greens can go from 17% to a victory in this riding. With the NDP running high it's hard to see how the Greens could combat the stream. The Greens will very likely place a strong second in this riding.

How will success be measured
- The Greens success will be measured by whether or not they are able to gain a seat or improve their share of the popular vote.
 (I will go to greater detail on the riding the green party could win in this election.)

2. The Strength of the Conservatives 
The Conservatives just about a year ago was tied for second place with the BC Liberals, but like many parties that suddenly blib high in the polls it is often short lived. (Remember when Francois Legault was leading in Quebec). What will interesting to see is whether the Conservative party of BC can became a real visible party in British Columbia elections. 
How will success be measured 
- If the Conservatives get 10% of the vote it will be a big win for them, because it will show that they do have a base in province to build on. 
-Another interesting thing to look out for is whether or not the Conservatives in BC will beat the Greens in popular vote. 

3. How big will the NDP win?
If all goes well, and no gaffes emerge than the NDP should be heading for a big majority government come May 14th. The real test for the NDP is whether they will be given power, because they are popular or because the other is less popular. In 2009 the BC NDP got 42% of the vote, and today they are polling anywhere between 46%-38%.If the NDP don't improve their numbers on 2009 that would prove that the NDP won only, because the BC Liberals are unlikable.  

How will success be measured 
- If the NDP don't improve on their election results from last election.