Justin Trudeau Wins

104,552 votes, yes just over 80% of the people who registered for the Liberal party of Canada leadership election ended up voting. A statement that was said quite often that night was that in this election more votes were cast than in any other leadership election. This is well...... true if we are talking about federal political parties.

In 2003 the Conservative leadership election
97,397 votes were cast
In 2012 the NDP leadership election
65,108 votes were cast

Although if we include provincial leadership elections the Liberal leadership election just held yesterday would only place second. The party that has obtained the most votes when it comes to electing a leader in Canada goes to the PQ (Parti Quebecois) in 2005. Yes in 2005 105,259 members of PQ voted to elect André Boisclair as leader of the PQ in Quebec.

Justin Trudeau first test as leader will be coming in the following month. That test will be the By-election in Labrador (which the Liberals are looking very likely as the winners). Justin Trudeau will most likely as all new leaders start to spike in the polls the important thing to watch here is how high will Justin Trudeau go. If Justin Trudeau ties with Harper or will Justin Trudeau lead and if so how much. All this is very important, because from the spike we can usually expect the true solid support to be anywhere 5-10% below.

What will also be interesting to watch is when will the new Conservative attack ads come, but right now it's the honeymoon. The Liberals are trying now to sell the new leader bit as much as they can to fund raise as much as possible, and the high poll numbers and media will help Liberal fortune's in the short run. The real show begins in the Fall session of next year, where Harper will have to start directing his attacks at either Mulcair or Trudeau.

Stop Spying on Us!

The Liberal Party has released two slick videos (English and French) on how the Conservatives kicked people out of their rallies. Stephen Harper has apologized for doing this, but there is more to this issue. The reason why students were kicked out of his rally is Facebook monitoring. The Tories screened people's Facebook pages and saw that they had pictures with Michael Ignatieff, Jack Layton or a member of another federal party. This characterizes the attitude towards Canadians. It is not right to spy on us.

Related articles

• Harper apologizes for campaign-rally ejections (theglobeandmail.com)
• Election 2011: Strong leaders don't hide from young voters (fullcomment.nationalpost.com)

████'s Record

Enough Harper has come out with another ad on booting Harper out of office. This one attacks the secrecy of the Harper government, always censoring and hiding information from Canadians. I like these ads. I think that they should be run on television. These would be good at showing the Conservatives' secrecy. Also on this topic, the Afghan detainee files could be released mid-campaign. Finally, we will know what Harper did not want us to know.

Related articles

• Harper government likely to fall after Friday vote (thestar.com)

Attacks Just Got More Personal

It wasn't enough to attack his background. No, it wasn't even enough, attacking statements said in some past year or even taking the word "yes" out of context. The Conservatives have just brought the never-ending attacks to a whole new level; attacking Michael Ignatieff's family. They have come out contradicting this recent video, saying that Ignatieff's family was actually quite rich when they immigrated to Canada.



The Tories obviously think that they know better than Michael Ignatieff himself or they would not have posted this attack. This is just sickening. Bring on the election!

Related articles

• Would Tories use an Ignatieff clip out of context? ‘Yes! Yes! Yes!’ (theglobeandmail.com)
• 'Canadians got to ask themselves is this the kind of politics you want?' (macleans.ca)

Money and elections

It is common knowledge that money wins elections. If we look at tables containing the candidates and the money they spent, there is a clear correlation between money spent and who wins. This is the whole basis for most of the uproar about sponsorship scandals. But remember : correlation is not causation. Although more money might cause higher chances of victory, it could be that higher chances of victory causes more money. Or it could be that a candidate's appeal to the voting public causes both money and high victory percentages.

Let's first use an analogy to simplify the issue. When do you cheer for a sports team:

A) When they have a sure win

B) When they stand a possibility of loosing

C) When they stand a possibility of winning

D) When they have a sure loss

Most people would answer A, B, and C. If you answered A, it is probably because you wanted to cheer for your favourite team, which is currently dominating. If you answered B, it is probably to encourage your team to play a bit harder to minimise the chances of a loss. If you answered C, it was probably to get the final push going and claim victory. But if you answered D, it is because the team is your favourite, and it is unlikely that you would ever not cheer for it. Now just replace "team" with "politician and party", and "cheer" with money.

But if you don't like the logic type of argument, because the situation is actually more complex, then entreat the statistical argument. In the book Freakonomics, authors Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner provide statistical proof that the candidates spending hardly matters at all when it comes to elections. They do this by comparing elections where the same candidates ran against each other (because the candidate is relatively constant). They found that when a candidate slashed their spending in half, they lost only 1% of their vote. (They used the 1000+ Congressional races where two candidates ran together for several times in a row, from 1970 until 2005, when the book was published. You can read the entirety of this argument on pages 8 to 11.)

But if you present the anecdotal evidence of various politicians who were elected "by money", as it would seem, allow me to present counter-evidence. Steve Forbes and Michael Huffington did not win their elections, and neither did Thomas Golisano, who spent $93 million of his own money over three elections, and won 4%, 8%, and 14%.

In conclusion, money does not win elections, and neither do elections win money. The chances of success of a candidate, based on their personality, their appearance, their charisma, and their platform win elections. Money is simply a byproduct of the of the chances, and has very little effect, the same way cheering has very little effect on the game at hand.

Attacking the Right Issue

The Liberal Party of Canada has released two new advertisements: one attack ad and one starring Michael Ignatieff speaking about the economy. The first one finally draws attention to the never-ending Tory trickery. This includes Bev Oda lying to Parliament, proroguing Parliament, launching smear campaigns against critics and renaming the Government of Canada, the "Harper Government." Someone in the Liberal Party finally woke up to this issue as this is the area in which the Conservatives are probably at their weakest.

The second ad speaks about Conservatives spending. Instead of continued economic aid or even reducing the deficit, the Tories have chosen to spend billions of dollars on mega-prisons, a fake lake and tax breaks for wealthy multinational corporations. This government has shown that they cannot properly manage the country's budget or even be responsible and transparent about their lack of competence. Election, please!

Pucapab

We're fed up. That is the message of the new French-language campaign called Pucapab, Québecois slang for, "I cannot take it anymore." Accompanying the Facebook page is a well-made music. In my opinion, the video is very well done and the music too. Unlike the Conservative attack ads, these do not attack Harper's personality. This is not supposed to win over Conservative voters, it's designed to draw support from people who simply cannot take anymore of Harper. Those are Dippers, Bloc Québecois voters and Green Party. To win the next election, Liberals are going to have to show that when you vote for the NDP, Bloc or Green to vote against Harper, you end up with him.

Related articles

• Fed up with Harper, Liberals launch social-media cri du coeur (theglobeandmail.com)

Let's Ask Michael Ignatieff...

The new Tory ads are just ridiculous. It's one thing to take quotes out of context like the Conservatives did previously. At least the quotes were more or less on the same subject. This time, the attack ad department decided to use Michael Ignatieff's quotes... like the Tories do. The word "yes" can be put in any situation to "prove" a point. Maybe someone was asleep at the switch, because I cannot see how these ads convince anyone of anything. In fact, it probably does the opposite: driving potential voters away. Will this move backfire? Let's ask Michael Ignatieff: "Yes, yes, yes!"

Related articles

• Tories launch attack ads aimed at Ignatieff, Layton (calgaryherald.com)
• Michael Ignatieff works Liberals into a lather (theglobeandmail.com)

New Liberal Ads

The Liberals have launched new ads to counteract those of the Conservatives. These ones concentrate on attack Stephen Harper's policy and not personal affairs. The Tories like to attack Michael Ignatieff personally and not the Liberal policy. Unfortunately, too much of this and they might backfire. The Conservatives launch personal attacks because they cannot attack the Liberal policy properly.

Related articles

• Federal Liberals launch campaign-style attack ads (calgaryherald.com)
• Liberals strike back with ads on fighter jets, corporate tax cuts (theglobeandmail.com)

Illegal Conservative Ads

Not only are the new Conservative ads unethical and lying, they are also illegal. Their new attack ads, while blowing things out of proportion and using out-of-context statements, also use file footage from CBC. The Tories did not ask permission to use the video. It's a requisite for the CBC to not provide this footage for political use.

Yet the Conservatives think that it is fair to use this footage without even having the decency to make a request. This kind of arrogance should not be tolerated. They are not entitled to use anything for the lies of attack ads they broadcast. The ads will backfire.

The CBC is demanding the Conservatives withdraw file footage from the national broadcaster that appears in new Tory ads targeting their political opponents.

Read more at the Globe and Mail. 

Related articles

• Tories seek alms to keep attack ads on air (theglobeandmail.com)
• It’s a risky time for attack ads (theglobeandmail.com)

Election fever.

With new ads out from the Conservatives I wonder how all the other parties will react. The NDP,Bloc and the Liberals all are against the ad no wonder. The fact is that these ads aren't going to really work, because the Liberals are still were they were in the polls as were they were in the last election. Calling out Ignatieff on a carbon tax and GST hikes both out of context and inaccurate, and used in the last election to stop people from voting Liberal in 2008 the Liberals will still get there same supporters and many people who voted Conservative last time just can't buy this again. This will just re-fuel the right wing base of the Conservative party. Harper's ads aren't really going to work in getting him a majority. Conservatives will realize there polling numbers won't go back to there 40% again and although no election will be called the ads will trigger some sort of anger with other parties, but  with these polling numbers an election could be as soon as this fall, but the Conservatives are really pushing for it now, and an election could be sooner than everyone thought.

Crazy Attack Ads

The Conservatives have launched new attack ads and they are full of false information and quotes taken out of context. There is much fear-mongering about the supposed "coalition," that Ignatieff supported, according to the Tories. Actually, it was he who disbanded it. The Liberals should run counter ads with the main message being "Canadians aren't dumb, Mr. Harper." The vast majority of people do not believe these lies and never will. This might very well be a waste of money for the Conservatives. Even worse, they might backfire.

The Conservatives can defend their new ads as accurate – provided that those who view them are among the most gullible folk who ever walked the Northern Hemisphere. For example, one ad notes that Michael Ignatieff favoured a carbon tax at one point. It forgets to mention that he has since disavowed a carbon tax.

Read more at the Globe and Mail.

Related articles

• Michael Ignatieff takes aim at new Conservative attack ads (thestar.com)
• Tories launch attack ads aimed at Ignatieff, Layton (nationalpost.com)

New Ads in Vaughan

The Liberal Party of Canada has released a new Italian-language attack ad in Vaughan. Notice that there isn't many personal attacks in it except for calling the Conservatives arrogant. It then goes on to prove it by showing how much money the Tories spent on prisons and the G20 summit among other things.When compared to the Conservative attack ads, the Liberal ones attack what the Conservatives do, instead of personal attacks.

Another NDP Vote

Another NDP MP has decided to vote for the long gun registry! Another MP decides to vote for the safety of Canadians and saving lives. If my math is correct, we only need one more NDP vote to make sure the gun registry stays. This news comes as the Conservatives release another one of their famous attack ad campaigns. In the ads is said that the NDP MPs should vote with their constituents on this issue. The newest MP to change his vote responds accordingly.

“The majority (of people in his riding) … have said ‘we think at this point we should keep it and we want you to go work on it,’” Allen told the Star.

Besides, how about those Conservative MPs representing urban ridings in Ontario and Quebec? Are they voting with the views of the people in their riding? I didn't think so. Unfortunately for the NDP and rural Liberal MPs, the Tories are pretty good at making propaganda-filled attack ads with nonsense as its main subject. On the other hand, most of the country sees right through the right-wing spin and propaganda. In any case, the long gun registry should stay for good as it is an effective way of saving lives.

The embattled long-gun registry received support on Monday from another New Democrat MP.

Malcolm Allen, who represents the Ontario riding of Welland, said Monday he will join three other NDP colleagues in switching their votes when Tory backbencher Candice Hoeppner's private member's bill to repeal the registry comes to a vote in Parliament.

Read more at CBC.

New Ads

The Liberal Party of Canada has launched new radio ads attacking Harper on the fake lake issue. I am embedding them here, however, I'm not sure if this was the right time to spend this kind of money. Of course the Harper government spent way too much money on the double summit, but, I just don't feel that it is the right time for ads. But hey, I'm no political strategist.

English



French



Visit the Liberal website.

Harper wants Merger

L. Ian MacDonald is completely right when he says that a merger between the NDP and the Liberals will only be good for Harper. Harper has done well before in branding things before they even get started: Stéphane Dion not a leader, separatist coalition, Michael Ignatieff just visiting. What we need to do is convey our message in a better way. Even though Liberal numbers are low, it's would get better if we got our message out there in a better way. That's what Michael Ignatieff, his caucus and us Liberals need to do. That's why I write for this blog.

He's just getting warmed up. Wait until he gets out on the campaign trail against the putative Liberal-NDP coalition. Remember the separatist coalition? Welcome to the socialist coalition.

What would lend credibility to such a line would be the clear memory of the Three Stooges, and their famous signature ceremony.

Read more at the Montreal Gazette.

Gun Registry Ads

To respond to the onslaught of Conservative attack ads, we Liberals have put up ads defending the gun registry. The gun registry works and the police chiefs agree. It is not in its optimum shape right now and there do need to be changes, however, it should stay for good.

Attack!!

Look at what I got in the mail.

 

From

The Tory attack ads out again. This is why the ten-per-centers should be banned. Using taxpayers money for this kind of political advertisement.