No Green Candidate in Etobicoke Center

In a surprising move Elisabeth may said that she would urge her party not to run a candidate in Etobicoke center a riding that may be forced to have a by-election. First let`s state how much this could help the Liberal party if the Greens didn`t run a candidate. The May 2nd 2011 result was

Conservative Ted       21,661
Liberal          Borys    21,635
NDP             Ana        7,731
Green           Katarina  1,454
Marxist Leninist  Sarah   149

Now with the Greens not running a candidate this is good to be true, but  some would say that the high in the polls NDP may grab the riding. Following a current forum research poll Ontario since 2011 has changed a lot.

Change in percentage since 2011 (in Ontario)
Conservative  40% (-4.4%)
NDP             30.0% (+4.4%)
Liberal          23.0% (-2.3%)
Green ¸           6.0% (+2.2%)

The only thing that is clear is that the Conservatives are down NDP is up and Liberals are just about where they have been since May. So even with the NDP most probably going up in this riding they don`t seem like they will win. Even if  Liberals lose support in the riding we can still win, because the Conservatives might lose more support, but in such a close contest having no Green Party candidate does help Liberals chances in the riding.
   

No to NDP/Liberal Merger!

CAW head ken Lewenza is advocating for the Liberal party to have a coalition with the NDP. The fact of the matter is that the Liberals don't need a merger with the NDP. The NDP come from a completely left-ward mind set. While we Liberals are very much more centrist. A merger with the NDP would mean or centerist idea's would be heavily diluted by the NDP. It be like a radical takeover of our party. like the merger that happened between the Conservatives and PC's. The only merger the Liberal party should look at is the Green party, because even though it is to the left of politics so to speak it's members are very much to the center of the political spectrum looking for a party that supports the environment. Remember ever since 2004 many Greens were former loyal Liberals. The Greens is the only one where a merger should even be considered. The NDP are completely different ideologically and never originated from the Liberals.

Read more here

Liberal-Green Merger

"I think if there's a merger we should be possibly looking at the Green Party. On the environment we have a lot of similarities."

 This statements was done by former MP Marlene Jennings. The Green Party is a party more to the left of the political spectrum. While the Liberals are very much closer to the middle, but the Liberals and the Green both share many important issue's in common or have been in common in the past. The most important of which is are past support of a Carbon tax. The Green party although having out reaching beliefs on all issue's have always kept the same one important issue always at the front. The environment. If we Liberals go back and move to our green shift we can show that a coalition will help the green parties goal, and if we finally create democratic reform not only to the senate, but the house as well we can reach out to the green party. I am not saying we should become the Green party, but the Green party and us both agree on many issue's. Even though sometimes we may have different policies on those issue's our parties are very much similar. While a merger with a more left leaning NDP is widely different from a merger with the Greens. The NDP first of all aren't at all interested, are very ideologically different than us and second of all are way too big and would require a major change to our polices especially now considering there caucus is bigger than ours on Parliament hill, and would force the more center/ center right part of our party to move to the Conservative party. While merging with the Greens wouldn't require too much of a change we already have had great relationships with them, because of our support of the carbon tax in the past, and we could still brand ourselves in the center with Dion we were still in the center, but the NDP is understood as much more to the left .If we can make the case to the Greens that we can help their main issue's get to the front and still be in the middle of the political spectrum then we would both accomplish are goals in a merger. The only problem I would have is if the Green Party wants us to become way to much towards the left then we would no longer be in the center. A coalition with the Greens would benefit both side's and would help stop the splitting of the vote. For these reasons we should defiently consider a merger with the Greens.

An Interesting Poll to Consider

A new poll shows that a majority of Canadians don't really support Conservative policies. 53% said that they didn't want the Corporate taxes to drop and only 39% agreed. On the Fighter jets 52% disagreed with a purchase and 37% agreed. On the Long Gun registry the country is split on what to do, but currently it's 46%-43%in favor of keeping the registry.  So how did Harper get elected.

Well he didn't really run on these policies in the first place, and guess what he only needed to get 40% to get his majority around where his policy approval is. Yet again a reason to reform the house. As it shows once again the only right wing party just needs to get the right wing vote to get a majority even though a majority didn't like the Conservative policies. Here is another interesting fact. A overwhelming majority support senate reform I wonder how much support house reform. The poll doesn't even mention abolishing the senate, but if people are interested in senate reform I don't know why they aren't interested in abolishing the senate.

On the issue of a merger I am glad to say that both our parties said No! by a huge margin might I add. 75% of NDP voters said no and 72% said no. A merger isn't happening. It seems Liberals want to keep the core centrist and fiscally responsible party.

The poll also found little support for a merger between the NDP and Liberal Party, an idea that re-surfaced after the Liberals lost official opposition status in the House of Commons.

Three-quarters of NDP polled and 72 per cent of Liberals said they oppose a merger between the two parties. 

Read more here

History Will Be Made

in the 41st Canadian election. All the polls have one thing in common: the NDP is way up and the Liberals have tanked. Not only that, but they are closing in on Harper. I doubt they could form the government, but there will be questions asked about the future of the Liberal Party and uniting the left.

I do not think that a merger would be viable. These parties are more different than you'd think. What really needs to happen is electoral reform. The opposition parties must unite to force a bill supporting proportional representation. Then, maybe a merger like the Liberal/National coalition could form between the Canadian Liberals and NDP. They would be able to maintain their own platforms and run candidates against each other while keeping the advantage of power.

A merger would be possible, but only after voting reform.

It Will Happen

Stephen Harper is saying that unless a Conservative majority is elected at the next chance, a Liberal/NDP/Bloc coalition will take over right away. This is ridiculous and no one believes him, but nevertheless, he should watch what he says, as it could put the Tory hold on power in jeopardy.

When you repeat the same ridiculous message again and again, it is possible that what you were warning against will actually happen. Did it ever occur to Harper that if he says, “They will deny it every day of the campaign. The day after, they will do it," maybe, it would actually happen. If I were in the opposition and had lost an election due to Harper's coalition fear-mongering, I would be quite encouraged to actually form a coalition.

If the Tories continue on their spin spree, the next election could be all or nothing for them. A majority or loss of power. Obviously, they are ready to take this gamble. Watch out Harper, because your fairy tale may come true.

Stephen Harper is warning us that, unless we elect a majority Conservative government at the next opportunity, a coalition of the other parties in the House of Commons will take over, virtually overnight. “They will deny it every day of the campaign,” the Prime Minister predicts. “The day after, they will do it.”

Read more at the Globe and Mail. 

20/11 Tour

Michael Ignatieff is to go on another tour. The Liberal Express tour during the summer and the Open Mike tours were great successes. These two tours helped convince me that Michael Ignatieff is the leader who is going to lead the Liberal Party to victory. The 20/11 tour will visit twenty ridings currently not held by the Liberals to try and sway them. Notably, the tour is not directed at Conservative voters. Michael Ignatieff hopes to sway NDP, Bloc and Green voters not to vote for their respective party and instead, vote for the Liberals.

Some might consider voting for the NDP, the Bloc Québécois, or the Green Party in order to “send Stephen Harper a message.” But if you vote for the NDP, the Bloc, or the Greens to send Stephen Harper a message, you’ll get Stephen Harper – and he won’t get the message.

This is a good, well-calculated experiment. This might be in part driven by Kevin Lamoureux's win in Winnepeg-North, a former NDP stronghold. I don't put much stock in by-elections, but the tour cannot hurt. In the next election, the Liberals do have to win seats from the NDP and Bloc and the 20/11 tour is a good way to accomplish just that.

Harpers Coalition Dreams

When ever Haper is losing he points to the left and says "look Coalition Ignatieff is working with the sepratist or the socialist". Thing is that no one is talking about a coalition exept him. I think that in the next election if the Liberals get a minority there should not be anything wrong to form a coalition or to have support from the NDP and Bloc. Harper for some reason may forget he wanted a coalition in 2004 with the "socialist" (Gasp). Now when Harper is in Goverment he thinks that a coalition is terrible and is not right. This shows again Harpers lies and flip flop political strategy, but now it isn't going to work this times.

Merger is Bad

Lysiane Gagon also thinks that a merger between the Liberals and the NDP is bad. A merger would happen based on the idea that with both parties' votes put together, it would be much easier to win a majority government. However, there is one factor left out of the calculation. By leaving the centre of Canadian politics to move to the left, there would be a lot of voters going to the Conservative party. It would never be a two choice decision anyway; the Bloc and the Green party would still get about 20% of the popular vote combined. The centre must be occupied by a political party and it is the Liberal party. I still do not like the idea of a two party state. The world isn't black and white.

Even though both Michael Ignatieff and Jack Layton have officially rejected it, the idea of a coalition between the Liberal Party and the NDP is still in the air. Former Saskatchewan premier Roy Romanow is promoting a merger, with the support of former prime minister Jean Chrétien and some influential Liberal activists who believe this to be the only way to beat the Conservatives

Read more at the Globe and Mail.

More Merger Talk

More from the Globe and Mail on how a merger on the left side of the spectrum is not going to be good for anyone. There have also been articles about a merger with the Conservatives. Even though it might seem possible now, they haven't been as Conservative as they would like to be. They are just waiting for their majority. A merger of any sort would not be good for the Liberal party and I do not support any "Unite-the-Left" action.

Merger is constitutionally impossible for both parties, politically unwise and, more important, intellectually bankrupt. A coalition after the next election? To paraphrase a great Liberal leader: a coalition if necessary but not necessarily a coalition.

Were the Liberals to win more seats than the Conservatives, but fall short of a majority, they could reasonably turn to the NDP and try to work something out. But if the Conservatives won more seats, as the British Conservatives did, it would fall to that party to make the first move. Who knows what that would bring.

Read more at the Globe and Mail.

PM Layton?

A poll shows that if a NDP-Liberal merger were to happen under the leadership of Micheal Ignatieff, it would lose by 6%. Under Bob Rae it is a tie, but under Layton would beat Harper by 6%. Now why? Simple. People like Layton more than they like Ignatieff. More importantly, if there was a Liberal-Democrat party  where would Liberal supporters go? Some would go to Harper, but more would go to the merger. The reason why Layton would win and not Ignatieff is because that Ignatieff is not as popular as Layton is. Now I do not support this merger because it compromises the Liberal party, and Layton's platform is too left. I think that the Liberal party can win a goverment without a coalition, so the Liberal party should consantrate on winning an election, and then working with other parties to create a stable government.

In one respect, the results of an Angus Reid poll to be released on Monday are not surprising — the Conservatives are at 35 per cent, the Liberals at 27 and the NDP are at 19 per cent; in Quebec, the Bloc leads with 37 per cent.

Read more at the Globe and Mail.

No to a Merger

An Ipsos Reid poll has found that the majority of Canadians are against a merger of the Liberals and NDP. 56% think it's a bad idea while 30% think it's a good idea. I am part of those who don't want the parties to merge. The Liberal party has campaigned under a Liberal banner since Confederation in 1867. We have been in power 70% of the time. There is no need to sacrifice the Liberal Party of Canada and Canadians recognise this fact. More importantly, 55% of Liberals don't want a merger. There is not going to be a Liberal-NDP merger any time soon. There probably never will be. Since Confederation, Liberal governments have been Liberal. There is no need to merge. We Liberals will remain Liberals.

OTTAWA -- Canadians have given a thumbs-down to the notion of a merger between the Liberals and NDP, a new poll conducted for Canwest News Service has found.

The Ipsos Reid national survey, conducted this week as Parliament Hill was awash with rumours, speculation and denials about a deal between the two parties, found that voters appear to want none of it.

Read more at the National Post and the Montreal Gazette.

No Need for Merger

Barbara Yaffe from the Vancouver Sun says that there is no need to unite the left. She blames our low poll numbers on leadership. However, I do not think it is our leadership itself that is the problem. The problem is that the Conservatives are so good at branding something as bad with their attack ads. Even before the 2008 election, the Tories launched attack ads against Stéphane Dion. He never had a chance after those well-done advertisements. What the Liberal Party of Canada needs to do is find a way of getting the message out and making sure that Ignatieff is seen as a better leader. We need to be seen as the better way and when the time comes, we will grab power.

It's true the centre and left have become splintered, especially with Greens scooping nearly seven per cent of the vote; but all Liberals need is the right set of circumstances to win.

Canadians, when the appropriate time comes, will know how to vote strategically to turf an offensive government.

For the moment, Liberals are led by someone who has yet to catch fire, failing 1½ years after becoming leader to present an appealing policy platform. This is unfortunate for the Grits but no reason to kill the brand.

Read more at the Vancouver Sun.

Harper wants Merger

L. Ian MacDonald is completely right when he says that a merger between the NDP and the Liberals will only be good for Harper. Harper has done well before in branding things before they even get started: Stéphane Dion not a leader, separatist coalition, Michael Ignatieff just visiting. What we need to do is convey our message in a better way. Even though Liberal numbers are low, it's would get better if we got our message out there in a better way. That's what Michael Ignatieff, his caucus and us Liberals need to do. That's why I write for this blog.

He's just getting warmed up. Wait until he gets out on the campaign trail against the putative Liberal-NDP coalition. Remember the separatist coalition? Welcome to the socialist coalition.

What would lend credibility to such a line would be the clear memory of the Three Stooges, and their famous signature ceremony.

Read more at the Montreal Gazette.

Coalition?

Scott Reid from the Globe and Mail says that the Liberal Party of Canada should not merge with the NDP. I agree with him. The Liberal party should remain its own with it's own heritage, beliefs and values. What we need to do to regain public support is to keep fighting for our beliefs, not to use a coalition to gain power at all costs. There is no need to sacrifice this party. The Liberal party might seem dead, but we do not need to surrender to Jack Layton. We need to continue to fight for a better Canada.

Who would suggest the party should now sacrifice its identity in the face of an opponent who has three times proven unable to secure a majority mandate? A Prime Minister who has rarely been able to rally more than 34 per cent of public opinion to his side?

The Liberals need to persist, not panic. To remember their history, not fear the future. The Liberal Party of Canada is the most successful political institution in the Western world. It has governed and shaped Canada into the country it is today. From medicare to public pensions to the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.