Friday, November 09, 2012

America Moves a Few Inches to the Left

For the most part the U.S political climate has remained the same. The White House resident is still a democrat, the senate is still controlled by democrats and the House is controlled by Republicans. But I think in all it is a win for left wing of the country, and shows to some extent the fact that America has at least in my mind moved little bit more towards the left of the political spectrum.

In the Presidential election Obama didn't win popular vote wise as much as he did in 2008. This of course doesn't prove that America has moved to the right, because we have to look at previous elections and look for a trend. The trend I see is that many former swing states  have started to lean towards the democrats, and many former Republican states have started to become the new swing states.

Michigan and Pennsylvania have been called swing states for quite some time, but they haven't voted for a republican since 1988! The state of New Mexico was also called a swing state and even voted for Bush in 2004, but the Hispanic vote which is growing in New Mexico, and is increasingly voted Democrat ensured Obama would win New Mexico by a 10% margin (which rivals other more staunchly democratic states like Washington). The state of Virginia which before 2008 has voted Republican since 1964 has became increasingly a democratic state. The state of North Carolina before 2008 has voted Republican since 1976. In 2004 Bush won the state by more than 12%, and now Romney only wins by a mere 3%.

As it can be seen a Democrat candidate has an easier way to 270 electoral votes versus any generic Republican candidate, because many states have become increasingly democratic due the increasing minority demographics in the U.S which currently vote staunchly democrat and the Youth vote increasing involvement.

For example in the year 2000 Only 15% of voters were of the age 18-29 and by a margin of 13% they voted for Gore. In 2008 18% of voters were 18-29 and Obama carried it by more then 34%. In 2012 the portion increased again and is now 19% and they still vote by an overwhelming margin of 23% for the democrats.

As for minorities in 2000 80% of voters were white, in 2008 only 74% were white and in 2012 only 72% are white. The Republican party is only winning this demographic, and have improved there numbers among whites since 2000. Bush in 2000 got 54% of the white vote Romney got 59%. The Reason this landslide majority among white's doesn't easily propel someone to the presidency is because of the minority vote, which feel they are being pushed away by the Republicans.

Among African Americans the percentage has remained relatively constant with around 90% something of all African Americans voting Democratic, but the reason this is dangerous is because the African American voting population is increasing. From 9%-13% (between 2000 and 2012)

Among Hispanics there is a different story. They have also increased there share of the voting population from 7% -10% (between 200 and 2012), but they have also increasingly started to move towards the blue candidate. In 2004 44% of Hispanics voted for Bush, In 2008 only 32% and in 2012 27%. The same is true for the Asian population as well.

It can be seen that demographics of America's voting population has made dramatic changes to some states voting habits as the Republican party is increasingly becoming a party made up of primarily white people and seems to be pushing away the other minorities. If any Republican wishes to get elected president continually pushing away minorities and not reaching out will cause the demise of the Republican party.