America Moves a Few Inches to the Left

For the most part the U.S political climate has remained the same. The White House resident is still a democrat, the senate is still controlled by democrats and the House is controlled by Republicans. But I think in all it is a win for left wing of the country, and shows to some extent the fact that America has at least in my mind moved little bit more towards the left of the political spectrum.

In the Presidential election Obama didn't win popular vote wise as much as he did in 2008. This of course doesn't prove that America has moved to the right, because we have to look at previous elections and look for a trend. The trend I see is that many former swing states  have started to lean towards the democrats, and many former Republican states have started to become the new swing states.

Michigan and Pennsylvania have been called swing states for quite some time, but they haven't voted for a republican since 1988! The state of New Mexico was also called a swing state and even voted for Bush in 2004, but the Hispanic vote which is growing in New Mexico, and is increasingly voted Democrat ensured Obama would win New Mexico by a 10% margin (which rivals other more staunchly democratic states like Washington). The state of Virginia which before 2008 has voted Republican since 1964 has became increasingly a democratic state. The state of North Carolina before 2008 has voted Republican since 1976. In 2004 Bush won the state by more than 12%, and now Romney only wins by a mere 3%.

As it can be seen a Democrat candidate has an easier way to 270 electoral votes versus any generic Republican candidate, because many states have become increasingly democratic due the increasing minority demographics in the U.S which currently vote staunchly democrat and the Youth vote increasing involvement.

For example in the year 2000 Only 15% of voters were of the age 18-29 and by a margin of 13% they voted for Gore. In 2008 18% of voters were 18-29 and Obama carried it by more then 34%. In 2012 the portion increased again and is now 19% and they still vote by an overwhelming margin of 23% for the democrats.

As for minorities in 2000 80% of voters were white, in 2008 only 74% were white and in 2012 only 72% are white. The Republican party is only winning this demographic, and have improved there numbers among whites since 2000. Bush in 2000 got 54% of the white vote Romney got 59%. The Reason this landslide majority among white's doesn't easily propel someone to the presidency is because of the minority vote, which feel they are being pushed away by the Republicans.

Among African Americans the percentage has remained relatively constant with around 90% something of all African Americans voting Democratic, but the reason this is dangerous is because the African American voting population is increasing. From 9%-13% (between 2000 and 2012)

Among Hispanics there is a different story. They have also increased there share of the voting population from 7% -10% (between 200 and 2012), but they have also increasingly started to move towards the blue candidate. In 2004 44% of Hispanics voted for Bush, In 2008 only 32% and in 2012 27%. The same is true for the Asian population as well.

It can be seen that demographics of America's voting population has made dramatic changes to some states voting habits as the Republican party is increasingly becoming a party made up of primarily white people and seems to be pushing away the other minorities. If any Republican wishes to get elected president continually pushing away minorities and not reaching out will cause the demise of the Republican party. 

PQ Proposes New Language Law!

The PQ leader Pauline Marois is proposing new language laws and a her version of secularism. Both of which will make Quebec much worse off. The new Language laws or as Marois would like to put it "a new Bill 101" would harm the most vulnerable people in Quebec society. These People are the anglophone population.

New laws like instituting bill 101 in small business that used to be exempts of such laws would make it harder for the anglophone population to get a job or even keep there job. Now business with as few as 11 people would have to comply to bill 101.

But not all the new language laws will  harm the anglophone population. Other rules the PQ are proposing like barring most francophone and anglophones from attending English CEGEP's. Will make it difficult for many to become bilingual. And statistically bilingual Quebecers make more money then there uni-lingual francophone counterparts. This isn't just an issue that will effect anglophones, because trying to reduce the Quebec's populations English language skills will harm the Quebec as a whole.

Yet Marois tries to defend her language laws by using the same old fear tactics that the french language will die if we don't.

"Our identity is so important. We are French people in North America. We are a small minority. If we don't wage this battle, we could lose this identity."

'If we don't wage this battle, we could lose [our] identity,' 

 "We have abandoned the defence of our language," she told reporters, saying the use of the French language is on the decline, particularly in Montreal.

Read More Here

Charest Strategy: Family!

Jean Charest new proposal to give parents who send their kids to public primary school will get 100 dollars every year helps many people, because Many parents today are having trouble affording school supplies for their children.  This plan will effect the parents of over 450,000 children who go to public primary schools in Quebec.100$ a year isn't a lot, but for many families it is good assistance.

Another Proposal by the Quebec Liberals to try and get young family voters was announced Sunday.This plan is to help business create daycares in workplaces. Another much needed assistance to families in Quebec which have a very hard time finding daycares. This proposal did come with some bad news, which was that the cost of daycare's will rise by the cost of living.

It seems the Liberal Party has mapped out it's strategy in this election. Since they can't get younger voters for obvious reasons then they are going for family voters. The PQ have yet to make any move on the campaign trail to attract these group of voters, which may be a fatal mistake for them as adults tend to vote more often then young people which seems to be the group they are courting.

Read More Here

Quebec Solidaire And The PQ

Amir Khadir was the first Quebec Solidaire member of the national assembly, and now the Quebec Solidaire seems poised to try and gain another seat right next to Amir Khadir's. In the riding of Gouin the Co-President of the Quebec Solidaire Francois David is campaigning to try and get her party a second seat in the National Assembly.

In the last election Francois David got 7987 votes while the PQ candidate Nicholas Girard (who is also running in 2012) got 10276 votes. In total that about 2,300 votes difference, which may be a lot for the Quebec Solidaire to get. Especially with the PQ riding higher in the polls then they did in 2008, but the Quebec Solidare seems to be doing a very local campaign. In which they will be concentrating a lot more of there time on Gouin and Mercier (Amir Khadir's riding).

In 2008 Amir Khadir unseated a PQ MNA to get elected, if Francois David get's elected September 4th she will also unseat a PQ member of national assembly. What does this mean to the PQ chances of forming government. In an election so close the Quebec Solidaires two seat could make it or break it for the PQ. Francois David had this to say:

 « Si à la fin de la campagne, il manque un seul comté pour que le PQ forme un gouvernement majoritaire, et bien je suis ouverte à dialoguer avec lui », a-t-elle lancé.

 Which in English means that she would be open to having dialogue with the PQ after the election if they are missing one MNA to form a Majority government. And one would believe it very likely that the Quebec Solidaire would support the PQ form a government.

So now one can safely assume when making riding projections that if their is a minority government one can safely assume that the QS will be supporting the PQ.

Read more here

Marco Rubio for VP? Part 2

I will now provide the answer to the final question and give the recap as well as the overall score and compare all three VP candidates I have so far analysed.

Final Question
Does Rubio come with baggage?
He does have a lot of political experience, but Marco Rubio doesn't have any executive experience, which is what Mitt has been screaming about when he talks about how he has a lot of executive experience making tough decisions. It would be hard to explain why the we must have a someone who has worked in the private sector and knows how to make executive decisions Mitt Romney would chose someone who has been in Politics for his entire working life. Rubio has Legislative experience as Senator and state congressman. This is not just a slight disadvantage, and will for sure make some questions about Rubio being pick. John Kasich worked in the private sector very recently for 8 years and Chirs Christie did have a job as a lawyer as well as executive experience as a governor.


To Recap?
Rubio will have an enormous amount of support coming with him on the ticket,and he would defiantly help Romney in some must win states like Florida, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa as well as New Hampshire. He also seems to have a clean record and shows no major disadvantage. Which is why many people in the Republican party are hoping Romney will chose Rubio. The only problem he did state before he isn't interested in running for VP, but that hasn't stopped many before. 

Here is all the scoring of all three candidates with some slight changes

Score                                                 Marco Rubio                John Kasich                    Chris Christie
Can he Help carry a state                          4/4                              1/4                                   2/4
Motivate a group                                      3/3                               1/3                                  2/3*
Does he come with Baggage                     1/3                             2.5/3                                2.5/3

Total                                                        8/10                           4.5/10                              6.5/10

* The Reason I changed Christie's 3 to a 2 was because I found it unfair I gave him a 3 out of three for motivating the tea party and Marco the same score for motivating the tea party and getting Latino votes.

Marco Rubio for VP? Part 1

Like I did for Christie and Kasich I will now analyse the benefits and the disadvantages of Marco Rubio as a VP choice.

First Question
Does he help carry any state?
Marco Rubio is the Senator from Florida which does for some reason always seem to be in the center of political campaigns. The only issue is Rubio isn't very popular in his state. Current polls have him with 46% disapproval and 41% approval, but I will explain why Rubio can still help Romney win Florida soon. Rubio like Christie can help carry states that are very pro Tea party. Like Iowa, Missouri and New Hampshire. Although it should be noted that Missouri is already leaning for Romney Iowa would still be a toss up and so would New Hampshire. But unlike Christie though he can get Latino voters. Which may help Romney in states like Nevada, New Mexico, Colardo and even Florida. This makes Rubio a very attractive candidate when it comes to electoral calculations.


Does he attract a group Romney can't?
Yes he does! Not only would the so called "crown prince of the Tea Party" be able to motivate the Tea party movement which has been very slow to go full out supporting Romney, but Rubio would also get Latino voters which helped Obama get elected in 2008. Exit polls in Rubio's senate race showed that Rubio got 55% of the Latino votes while Obama in 2008 won the Latino vote by 57% in Florida and 67% nationwide. If Rubio is the VP candidate he could attract many Latino voters which is a very crucial block for the Obama campaign especially in Florida where Latino voters already vote more Republican than the national average.

I will provide the answer, the recap as well as the score for all the three VP candidates that I have so far analysed on Sunday at 7.

Marois Startegy Clever, But Will It Work?

In an effort to try and win the election Marois asked student Protesters to hold a truce on strikes until the election is over. Future confrontations with Police Marois said would benefit Charest Law and Order agenda.

She is right if there are major confrontations with police that leads to mass social unrest Charest will be seen as the person who can fix it all, and Marois will look like she is siding with the protesters. Also mass riots will take the issue of corruption and even tuition hikes off the view of the public. Just like it did a few months ago, because the issue become not whether we should reduce tuition, but how do we stop this unrest? Right now the more militant student group called La CLASS is considering whether or not to listen to Marois  advice.

What Most probably will happen is that there will be some student protest, but there will be less. Whether the protest will be the main issue on voters mind has yet to be seen.It is clear more then ever that how to solve civil unrest will play a major factor in this election, but will it be the main theme of the election is yet to be seen.

“It would certainly be good to hold a truce,” Ms. Marois said on Thursday. “I invite students and those who marched in the streets to march towards their voting booths on election day and send a clear message to this government.”

 Ms. Marois made the plea as she unveiled plans to freeze tuition fees for 100 days if the PQ forms the next government, promising a public forum to examine university funding. She said a PQ government would index any potential tuition fee hikes to the cost of living.

Boussole Électorale

Which is french for Electoral Compass. The French version came almost right after an election on September 4th was certain on RDI. The English version is now Available on the CBC.

 So, find out who you would vote for!
Alor, trover qui vous voteriez pour!

I got the Liberals as my first choice, take your try now.

And They Are Off.. PQ Lead!

In a snap poll done just a few days ago shows the PQ may form the next government. According to the poll the PQ will get 39% and the Liberals will get 38%, while the CAQ will get 14% and the Quebec Solidare as well as the green party will get 4 and 3 percent respectively.

The Reason this shows that the PQ will form the government is, because when only polling francophone people who tend to decide most of Quebec's ridings come election night the PQ have a strong lead. With 43% saying they will vote PQ and only 32% saying they will vote Liberal.The Most surprising thing about this poll is that at the end of July the CAQ was hovering around the low 20's.

Another reason to suspect that the PQ are in the Lead is that according to the survey PQ voters are more excited to vote than Liberal. With 96% of PQ supporters polled said that they were sure they would vote in this election. The Liberals didn't even get close to that number among there supporters.

Still the election is still anyone's game. In Quebec in only takes a few weeks for everyone to change there minds completely .

Read more here

John Kasich for VP? Part 2

And now as promised the final question as well as the recap and the overall score.

Third Question
Does John Kasich Bring any Baggage?
John Kasich does come with some small pieces of baggage. Let's begin with the less serious. John Kasich is undecided on whether Ohio should allow more use of casino's which traditionally most Republicans are against it, but again John is undecided so you can't attack a lot on that, and this is a very unimportant. The more serious baggage John as a VP nominee may face is a controversy he had with a police officer back in 2008. Where a police man pulled him over and gave him a ticket for not yielding to an emergency vehicle, and he admitted to wrong doing. The problem was that even after he admitted to doing wrong he then called   the police man an idiot for doing his job. These are very small almost not worthy mentioning issue's.

To Recap
If Romney picks John Kasich there seems to be no gain for the Republican candidate. John doesn't motivate any group Romney is lacking, He also doesn't even help carry his own state. John also doesn't have any negative attributes, which means that he would be a safe choice for Romney. Because he wouldn't cause any damage or gain.

Scoring
Does he help Carry any state         1/4 (I gave him the one, because he wouldn't make Romney lose a state)
Does he motivate a group              1/3 (I gave him one because he doesn't unmotivated a group)
Does he have any baggage             2.5/3 (Because he brings very little baggage)

Total                                            4.5/10

John Kasich For VP? Part 1

This is a part  of my continuing quest to research every possible VP pick before Romney announces them. Today I will analyse John Kasich. He is the governor of Ohio. His name has been thrown around as a VP candidate over the past weeks.
I will be using the same format I used for when I researched Chris Christie , where I will pose some of the very important questions of choosing a VP and score them.

Let start with the first question
Does he Help Romney carry any state?
John Kasich is the Governor of the all important swing state of Ohio, which so far has the longest holding record of voting for the winner. The only issue he isn't popular in the state. His current approval rating in his state is 41% and disapproval is 44% according to a recent poll. Even when people of his state where asked who would make the best VP choice for Romney the current Governor came in 3rd place behind Rubio and Christie. While this doesn't mean Romney will lose any votes nominating Kasich doesn't seem like it would help the ticket. Other than that Kasich has no benefit for Romney in any other state.

Can he get any group Romney can't get?
The best answer to this question for Romney is usually either Hispanic voters or Tea Party voters (as they aren't so motivated to go out and vote). Unfortunately for Kasich he isn't well known by the country and Tea Party people don't very much know him. So he's hardly someone who can excite the base. According to exit polls he won the Governor race in 2010 by getting the demographics most Republicans rely on. He doesn't much motivate any group to come out and vote for him.

Later today I will post the nest question as well as the recap and his overall score.

Chris Christie VP? Part 2

As promised time to continue with question three and four as well as the recap as well as Christie's scoring.

Third Question
Does he come with any baggage?
Well unemployment in New Jersey is higher then the national average. Chris Christie comes with a record seen by many democrats as helping the wealthy. Which continues the talking points that the Republicans only care for the wealthy. But none of these things would really harm the base. The true baggage would be that one Christie believes in Climate Change. Last year he even stated this 

"I can’t claim to fully understand all of this," he said. "Certainly not after just a few months of study. But when you have over 90 percent of the world’s scientists who have studied this stating that climate change is occurring and that humans play a contributing role it’s time to defer to the experts."

Romney says we don't know what is causing global warming. Chris Christie at least admits humans have some effects on the planet's temperature. Another piece of baggage

Recap
Christie would be very little help on the political map, because Missouri, New Hampshire and Iowa the only states I see any more support for Romney because of Christie. Missouri which has already supported McCain in 2008 will support Romney anyway. New Hampshire will only lean more towards Romney and it only has 4 electoral votes and Iowa would still be up for grabs. Christie would still be a star candidate for the tea party. So The Question is "is Romney trying to move towards the middle a bit more or is he still moving towards the right." If Romney picks Christie the answer to that question will be easy. In Total Christie is a does very little to bring in new people to the party and only seems capable of bringing Republicans who may not vote to vote, which of course helps Romney, but maybe not enough.

the score is based on the three question
Does he help carry any state                                                     2/4
Does he help get a group that would otherwise be neglected      3/3
Does he have any baggage                                                        2.5/3
Christie's score is 7.5/10

Chris Christie VP? Part 1

As promised I will go throw some of the people Romney may pick as his VP candidate in this election. Today's VP prospective is Chris Christie.

First does he help carry any states Romney may have Trouble.

Short answer- Yes but not where you think . First he is indeed Governor of New Jersey, but this state is very blue and his approval rating in his own state is low 40%. His disapproval rating also low 40%. In fact It may be extremely strange that in November both the Romney and Christie won't win their own home states. Christie can't help in any of his bordering states, because New York is too blue already Delaware is not only Blue but Biden's home state and east Pennsylvania  doesn't look like it will change it's mood for Christie. The only states I can see a push for Romney would be Iowa, New Hampshire and Missouri which I will explain in question two.

Second question
Can he get any group Romney can't get?
This is a solid yes. The Tea Party which has ever so slowly been coming closer to Romney would adore a Christie on the ticket. This would definitely drive the solid Tea party supporters to the polls. This will for the most part only solidify the support Romney would most likely get. The only states that would come with more backing from the tea party would be Missouri New Hamshire and Iowa. Missouri McCain got in 2008 so let's just give that to Romney. New Hampshire which right now is considered a swing state would if Christie is chosen may lean more towards Romney. First Because Romney is from the neighboring state of Massachusetts, and this state has huge Tea party support. Iowa is more difficult. Yes it does have a lot of Tea party support, but Obama is very strong here.

I will continue The next day with  question 3 and the recap as well as his scoring.

Rick out Romney a Shoe Win to Win

With Rick Santorum suspending his campaign (A.K.A I am quitting this race) Romney is for sure going to win his nomination. Ron Paul is staying and so is apparently Newt Gingrich. These people don't have high polling numbers or neither the money to move forward. So now that the slow march to the nomination is practically over ( I am now moving my intentions to possible V.P choices) I will research every likely V.P hopefully I will have the time before Romney announces. 

It seems like Ron and Newt won't let the march go so well, but hey it fun to hear them speak and especially the debates. I don't think Romney will go to another debate considering why rock the boat that has just caught wind. Romney has bigger things to worry about like the fact that women don't have such a high apporval of him and the fact that independents don't either. Other problems include a somewhat growing U.S economy and Obama's approval rating flirting with 50%.

So to recap Obama and Biden VS. Romney and ?. I love watching U.S elections they are always so much fun to watch. 

Broken Convention possibility

Romney is the front runner again (and all is back to normal). At this point the only thing that can give Santorum enough delegates for a broken convention is if Gingrich drops out. Santorum could still win more delegates than Romney though. How?

My math Skills at work. You need 1144 delegates to clinch the nomination. If no one get's it then there is a broken convention. Currently of the delegates allocated Romney has a majority which means if things continue as they are Romney is set to get the majority of the delegates therefore winning the nomination. If Santorum surges again or for that matter Gingrich and manage to take 699 delegates of the 1358 delegates still left to be allocated. Now if Gingrich would drop out and endorse Santorum the possibility of a broken convention starts to become impossible. Because in order to have a broken convention it requires that no one have 1144. If Gingrinch endorses Santorum all his delegates go to him. Therefor the delegates can only be divided up in three.   The only other person in would be Ron Paul

so to illustrate

if Santorum get's Gingrich's delegates then the delegates count would be.

Romney: 484 (need's 660)
Santorum: 375 (need's 769)
Paul: 69 (need's 1075)

the amount of delegates left are 1358. If Paul doesn't get much delegates as people project then unless the race get's really tight Santorum or Romney lower the chances of neither of them getting 1144. If all four stay and everyone except Romney  manage together to get 51.5% of the remaining delegates Romney would face a broken convention

So Illinois?

In Irder for Santorum to have any chance to stop Romney from getting 1144. He will need to win over big states and mid western states. Illinois is one of the states Santorum needs to win if he still wants to win the nomination. Now if Romney wins today he hasn't won anything yet, but it only continues the slow trail Romney is taking to the nomination. In last three polls that were taken in the past few weeks I have made a poll of polls.

here they are
Romney 37.7%
Santorun 31.3%
Gingrich 13.3%
Paul 7.3%

In the last poll held two days ago Romney lead was 9%. The New York Times has Romney at a 86% of winning. I agree with this poll and project Romney would win by around 8%. 

Republicans No Fiscal Conservatives

According to the independent committee for responsible federal budget most Republican candidates aren't at all fiscally responsible. In fact 3 out of the 4 Republicans would increase the debt over the next ten years.

The worst on the budget is Newt Gingrich according to the report he would increase the debt by 7 trillion in nine years and make the Debt to GDP ratio 114%. Rick Santorum wins second place on the worst fiscal conservative by adding 4 trillion to the debt in nine years bringing the Debt to GDP to 104%. Mitt Romney had some credibility, because his old plan would have increase the debt by only 250 billion in nine years, that on average 28 billion a year. that way below the current projection of a 500-600 billion dollar deficit per year, but most recently if you add Romney new tax plan he just talked about a few days ago he would add 2.5 trillion to the debt in nine years. He's kind of like Harper promise a small deficit first then show up with a bigger deficit. But the best plan (at least for the deficit) would be Ron Paul his plan according to the study would reduce 2.2 trillion in debt over 9 years. The only problem, rather one of the problems with Ron Paul's plan is the fact that in the process of eliminating a bunch of government agencies and some economist say eliminate up to 1.5 million jobs in the process. All of these Republicans would cut spending on essential programs for the poor and the elderly and all of them would then take that money and reduce taxes on the rich who don't need anymore money and some to the middle class. Even with small tax cuts for the middle class they would still be worse off, because a lot of the agencies that help them would be cut harsh like Medicare or even be completely dismantled.

Mitt, Rick and Newt are lying when they call themselves fiscally responsible, and Ron although would cut defense his other policies would take the U.S back into recession. In fact all these candidates would put the middle class and the poor back into recession.   

Read More Here

R is for Romney and Rick Santorum

Romney released his tax returns only to show us that he makes a lot of money and is taxed at a rate 15.4% the lowest rate is 15%! Now this was of no surprise to some. It only show the enormous amount of money the U.S  could be getting to reduce the deficit if they actually taxed the rich at the current low rate it is. Because to pay the same tax rate as a guy earning minimum wage is absurd. Rick Santorum who has recently came on his white horse to apparently "save" the Republican party and trys to show himself as the guy who is most like you is also a millionaire. Nothing wrong with that except the fact that he pays at most 28.5% of his income to taxes. The current rate for the rick which Santorum is should be paying 35%. Now I don't blame these men for using the loopholes at their disposal to pay as little income tax as possible. I blame our government and the organization who lobby the U.S government into making the tax rate what it is now with all the loopholes. Now I get that there are tax reduction, but sometimes the rich have got to pay taxes.

And So Goes the Base!

Romney in 2008 had one very strong allies. That ally was his home state called Michigan he won it by 9%. Granted it wasn't a complete landslide, but it was one of the only states he did win. Which means that in a race where Romney is the front runner one would assume Michigan would be in the solid block of Romney support. But with new polls showing Santorum  with a 9 point lead and with recent events of other solid Romney states (from 2008) like Minnesota and Colorado going for Santorum. I think Romney is shaking in his boots. So it seems Romney's base has left him. Romney up till now I believed was always the front runner. Even after he lost South Carolina then Minnesota and Colorado. At this moment I think Romney is no longer the front runner at all.

Why Now?
well first until after a little while it seemed Romney won Iowa, but when Rick Santorum ended up winning it meant little to nothing, because Santorum was doing bad in all the other states. When Gingrich won South Carolina and was at the time poised to win Florida, I still believed Romney was the front runner, because first South Carolina and the south has never really been Romney's friend and more importantly even if Gingrich won Florida the next few states at that time were apparently solid for Romney. Now Romney isn't the Front Runner, because he is losing states he won in 2008 and I would consider his base.Romney is no longer the front runner. At this moment He is the strong second. If I learned anything in this primary season nothing is carved in stone.

The Long RUN!

Well Romney, Rick , Gingrich and Paul congratulations you have now become Obama-Hillary. AT least I think so. I think this is going to go much further than super Tuesday. Why

1. States that I though were safe for Mitt were not.After Florida I thought it would have been a clear path for Mitt, but when states like Colorado and Minnesota, which voted for Romney outstandingly in 2008 start to vote for Rick Santorum I think this race could take a while.

2. In 2008 after super Tuesday McCain was so far ahead there was no way he was going to lose. In this primary although still relatively early I think the states in the (united states) are going to split. Even on super Tuesday.

3. No one is leaving. Gingrinch looks like he wants to go all the way, Romney the front-runner (at least I think for now), Santorum is on an upswing and Paul in 2008 stayed in the race even after McCain secured the nomination.