America Moves a Few Inches to the Left

For the most part the U.S political climate has remained the same. The White House resident is still a democrat, the senate is still controlled by democrats and the House is controlled by Republicans. But I think in all it is a win for left wing of the country, and shows to some extent the fact that America has at least in my mind moved little bit more towards the left of the political spectrum.

In the Presidential election Obama didn't win popular vote wise as much as he did in 2008. This of course doesn't prove that America has moved to the right, because we have to look at previous elections and look for a trend. The trend I see is that many former swing states  have started to lean towards the democrats, and many former Republican states have started to become the new swing states.

Michigan and Pennsylvania have been called swing states for quite some time, but they haven't voted for a republican since 1988! The state of New Mexico was also called a swing state and even voted for Bush in 2004, but the Hispanic vote which is growing in New Mexico, and is increasingly voted Democrat ensured Obama would win New Mexico by a 10% margin (which rivals other more staunchly democratic states like Washington). The state of Virginia which before 2008 has voted Republican since 1964 has became increasingly a democratic state. The state of North Carolina before 2008 has voted Republican since 1976. In 2004 Bush won the state by more than 12%, and now Romney only wins by a mere 3%.

As it can be seen a Democrat candidate has an easier way to 270 electoral votes versus any generic Republican candidate, because many states have become increasingly democratic due the increasing minority demographics in the U.S which currently vote staunchly democrat and the Youth vote increasing involvement.

For example in the year 2000 Only 15% of voters were of the age 18-29 and by a margin of 13% they voted for Gore. In 2008 18% of voters were 18-29 and Obama carried it by more then 34%. In 2012 the portion increased again and is now 19% and they still vote by an overwhelming margin of 23% for the democrats.

As for minorities in 2000 80% of voters were white, in 2008 only 74% were white and in 2012 only 72% are white. The Republican party is only winning this demographic, and have improved there numbers among whites since 2000. Bush in 2000 got 54% of the white vote Romney got 59%. The Reason this landslide majority among white's doesn't easily propel someone to the presidency is because of the minority vote, which feel they are being pushed away by the Republicans.

Among African Americans the percentage has remained relatively constant with around 90% something of all African Americans voting Democratic, but the reason this is dangerous is because the African American voting population is increasing. From 9%-13% (between 2000 and 2012)

Among Hispanics there is a different story. They have also increased there share of the voting population from 7% -10% (between 200 and 2012), but they have also increasingly started to move towards the blue candidate. In 2004 44% of Hispanics voted for Bush, In 2008 only 32% and in 2012 27%. The same is true for the Asian population as well.

It can be seen that demographics of America's voting population has made dramatic changes to some states voting habits as the Republican party is increasingly becoming a party made up of primarily white people and seems to be pushing away the other minorities. If any Republican wishes to get elected president continually pushing away minorities and not reaching out will cause the demise of the Republican party. 

Another Deficit Year in Washington DC!

The U.S again goes for the easy way out of a problem by extending tax cuts for two months. Just like the super committee it seems that this congress is going to delay and then delay again. Nothing this year has even seriously touched the deficit. The U.S is running out of time. The interest on the debt that is accumulating every minute will soon become more expensive then medicare. The U.S has just wasted another year arguing about how bad the current congress is at getting the deficit under control. Maybe next year they will talk about how terrible the first four years were under Obama. Hello the term isn't over you have one more year to do something. Then again I am an optimist (I think maybe the rich will get some sort of tax increase next year).

Every minute we wait the more severe the austerity is going to be in the future. Happy New Year Congress.

Democrats are Dreaming

In a somewhat strange turn of events it seems the Democrats who contiguous talk themselves as being the party that will save Social Security is now the party that quite frankly is giving it lip service.  The Payroll tax (the tax that generates a lot of income for Social Security) is at 4.2%, but it is usually at 6.2%. This tax cut is set to expire by the end of the year. If the tax cuts aren't extended then that would mean that the people making  in the low income brackets (as low as 35,000) will pay 700 dollars more and people making more than 110,000 will pay a few thousands more. Granted that the expiration would hurt people in the middle class, but the U.S is running a deficit it time to make hard choices. The Debt to GDP is too high and extending tax cuts like this will hurt the economy in the long run. Because the less money the U.S tries to save now means more than that amount they are going to have to save later. In Fact Obama and some Democrats want to not only extend the tax cut, but expand it to make people pay 3.1% he claims he will pay for it by taxing the rich more. Granted this tax cut will help people in the lower bracket and that the taxes on the rich need to increase, but the U.S can't live off on just revenue neutral ideas they need revenue positive plans.  So I say the best plan would be to eliminate the payroll tax cuts to the people making over 100,000 and in fact make it 7%, and for the middle class I say compromise on slowly re-introducing the 6.2% by only increasing it by 0.5% in 2012 year and 0.5% the next year and the other 1% the third year. The U.S has to start getting serious on debt , and make long term plans to stop the social security deficit and the countries deficit.

Read more here

Would a Tea Party President Help the democrats?

Now some would go off and think the question doesn't make sense, but think about it. If the Tea Party was in charge what would happen. Well the President would waver Obamacare which would rally the Democratic base. The Republicans president would veto any bill that has more spending. Which means that since we know cutting spending and decreasing taxes on the rich which they (Republican candidates) are all prepared to do doesn't really help the economy. Especially there plan for Medicare that will bring no support from the older voters. Cuts to the environment would get the environmentalist fired up, and cuts into education and making it less government funded as well with lower assistance for people wanting to go to university would get the youth more angry at the Republicans. What I am saying is maybe dating the bad terrible boy friend just once enough to make us swear him off forever?

Time heals many wounds just look at the 2008 results who would have known the Republicans would rebound so quickly. The only problem is that they would create a big mess even worse than Bush. The only path the U.S should take in 2012 is Democratic, because allowing the Republicans to win so the Dems could re grab everything in 4 years won't solve the problems that will happen in 4 years of Tea party rule. What I am trying to say is anyone in the U.S thinking of not voting or voting Republican so they can mess up things so America will swear them off forever. It won't work. Or anyone thinking that if the Republicans get in office the Dems over a two midterm and a general election get the House, Senate and white house with very strong majorities so they can pass what they wanted to pass is also wrong. Let's not be fooled by the bad boyfriend that he is are only option. Obama although nowhere near perfect is the best out of the worse for now at least.

Up then Down

Gay equality is on a rollercoaster this week. With New York legalizing gay marriage and a poll showing that a majority of Americans support gay marriage one would think that the U.S is heading in the right direction. like all good things it must come to an end or at least an obstacle. A women in Vermont where gay marriage is legal married another women who is living in the U.S on a visa, But wait since she married her wouldn't that mean that she get's a green card to stay in the U.S. Unfortunatly citezenship is a federal issue, and since the federal goverment doesn't fully regocnize the marriage her wife is going to get deported soon. Even in a state that legalized gay marriage there will still be inequality.She should be given a green card, but because the federal goverment is against full equality gay people even in Vermont is still no where near where it needs to be .This proves that we are going to need the federal goverment to start to regocnize gay marriage, but unfortunatly Obama only supports civil unions. Although he has given more benifits to gay copules there are many benifits left out. It seems that on the federal level equality will be deayed for at least 4 years and probably more depending who get's elected in 2016.


see more here

Birthers Put To Rest!

I don't think that it should have taken Obama to realize a birth certificate in order to prove that he was actually born in the U.S, but a new poll showed that now only 3 percent believe Obama wasn't born in the U.S. I hope now we can concentrate on the deficit or other issue's. Now Obama may have to realize a video of his of him being in church service when he was a child to prove that he isn't a Muslim. Not that any of this should matter I think that the Constitution should be changed. I don't think that you have to be born in a country to lead that country. In Canada our first PM was born in Scotland, And of course religion should have no role in who we vote for, but this of course still does play a role in U.S and Canadian politics.

Donald Trump a "birther"

It is sometimes very sad to see someone who is so well connected and so wealthy that he could probably afford to do a full back round check to see if Obama was really born in the U.S unfortunately he said that he doesn't know and really questions wether Obama was really born in the U.S. I hope that this doesn't become the issue of the 2012 campaign there are so many more important issue's. We need to talk about the deficit and the taxes that must rise to eliminate it. It is a shame to see the great democracy of the U.S talk about something so silly and so untrue. I hope Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination so Obama will have an easy candidate to beat. The fact is a poll before these comments had Trump just a few points below Obama. This may just prove how the Tea Party is pushing all right wing candidates more to the right that it will be very hard for a Republican to get elected. You can say the Right is pushing themselves so far to the right no one wants to vote for them. While Obama is moving to the center. Obama could have a very easy win, but I am making no predictions just yet, because no major candidate is saying if he or she is going to run. So far the republican maybe circle is so large that candidates are going to have to push themselves to one part of the party and hold on to it till the other candidates leave the race. The good thing about this is that most of them are trying to hold on to the Tea party vote which means the candidates are pushing themselves to the extreme to win there parties nominations. By doing that they will alienate the center and give Obama another 4 years.

Obama Cuts with Nail clippers

With major deficit the U.S President is proposing cuts which is a good thing I support cutting spending if the Government can't truly afford it. The U.S presidents will cut the deficit by 1.1 trillion over 10 years sounds like a good thing, but the fact stays that 1.1 trillion over 10 years means on average only 110 billion which is a blimp on the 1.1 trillion dollar deficit the U.S currently has, and even with deficit going to as low as 659 billion will not eliminate the deficit. These cuts are just the start the major budget items that will keep the U.S in even worse deficit for years to come will be much higher. Obama hopes to cut the deficit with nail clippers, but Obama needs to bring out the big scissors. Like cutting Defense, the one thing I think he shouldn't cut is the help for the poor with heating cost which will effect 9 million people. Easy solution make the super rich pay there fair in taxes. If the house passes this bill they will prove they care more about the super wealthy getting thousands more dollars in there biggy bank to leave there then they care about the poor people who need assistance. It's pure stupidity to help the rich while you make the poor fend for themselves. This bill should die fast and quick. What Obama needs to do is put the taxes back to the Bill Clinton area where there was surplus, economic growth and where social security was funded. Then lower the Corporate tax, and pay for it by creating a carbon . Raise the social security age and make more cuts in the in defense. Keep funding and assistance of the poor, and make the estate tax higher for the rich. These are real solutions Obama's little cuts will just hurt the poor and cut the deficit by an inch they need to dramatically change.

The American Gas Association, an industry group that represents natural gas companies, predicts 3.2 million households, and 9 million individuals, would be affected.

But before becoming law, the proposal will have to survive a marathon budget process, and House Republicans who favor far more severe cutbacks and Democrats in both chambers who think Obama went too far.

Read more here

Obama Can Beat a Bush?

Even though George W Bush can't run because he has already ran for president twice there is still another Bush who everyone thinks might run. Jeb Bush Bush's brother who some say was the reason Bush won in 2000. Old poll showed that Jeb Bush was 8% behind now a new poll shows Obama at 54% and Jeb Bush at 34% Obama seems to be leading a lot of the potential 2012 candidates, and now the potential field is getting very crowded and it now gets to a point that in the 2012 election it could be the Republican candidate that has more name recognition. Palin could just win, because people know her name and she is very popular with Republicans. The thing is that candidates that are running in 2012 are really reeling on the tea party to support them and although the Tea party candidates can get elected when it comes to specific district, but when it comes to states in general where the independents of the states will chose the winner the Tea party could lose some of those supporters, because the 2012 nominee will spent so much time showing how they are more fiscal responsible and more Right wing then the others they will alienate the independent voters. The Tea party may have destroyed the Democratic majority, but might give Obama the boost to get reelected.

bama outpaces Bush by a 54-34 percent margin in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup. That's a significant uptick for the president from a September poll that indicated that Obama would only beat the younger brother of former President George W. Bush by a spread of eight points.

But National Review editor Rich Lowry later wrote he thinks this is the most favorable election cycle Bush is likely to face, given he has already been out of the governor's office for five years and is by-and-large removed from the public eye.

Read more Here

Health Care Stays!

Obama's health care bill that by itself isn't enough to fully fix the health care in the U.S, but an amazing big jump forward. Now  many Republicans want to destroy the bill that helps people who have a pre-existing condition get health care insurance. The Health care bill that helps people not big insurance companies. Repealing the health care bill would add to the deficit over 100 billion in the first 10 years alone. The Republicans would like to take coverage from people who are sic and increase the deficit at the same time. Yet they blame Obama for helping people and lowering the deficit. Some of these Republicans are hypocrites. The bill to destroy the health care bill was stooped in the democratic controlled senate, and for now the health care bill is staying. But how long will the Republicans milk this. Maybe all the way to the white house, but even if Obama loses his presidency the senate unless the Republicans gain 13 seats which would be historic and impossible none the less the health care bill will stay.

Read more here

3 state of the Union adresse's

Usually you just get 2 addresses. The President then you get the opposite parties address this time you got Obama , The Republicans address and the Tea party address's. Obama's address was great to hear liked what he said he made no attempt to talk about increasing taxes except increasing taxes on the rich, but he only said that there tax cut couldn't stay permanent. He talked about how people who get a degree should be given the right to citizenship which i say is a good idea. He also said that immigrants children should be able to become citizens , as long as they have done some service to the country which is a great idea, but some people who illegal immigrated at a certain age should be deported I think.  The Tea party address was fun to watch saying that Obama should repeal almost everything he did in the first year. Anyways Obama promised he would veto any bill that has earmarks which is okay at cutting 8 billion dollars tops, but at least some Bipartisanship that I hope will stay with the President and the House and Senate. Odds are it won't , but never the less I think earmarks are okay as long as there is an earmarks bill and no earmarks are put in parts of important budget items.

President Huckabee. Not just yet!

In the race of 2012 which will start in less than a year. Who will face Obama in the next election. Huckabee is now seeming to be the rising star. With having an evanchelicol base, already well known for his last unsecssful caimpaign in 2008. Huckabee in the Primaries can finetly woo the prodominat right wing south. His net approval rating (approval minus disapproval) is the highest out of many of the other candidates. Huckabbe 30% Newt 24% Romney 23% Palin 22%. Altrhough the marging of error is 4%it still assures Huckabee can be a strong competator this time. Last time he was out of the running by super tuesday when Mccain smashed the competition. Huckabee former governor of arkansas still needs to be ab.le to get moderates to win the white house. Problem is in a national poll him against Obama poll finds he is behind 12%. 50% Obama 38% Hucakbee.  This poll came a surprise to me Obama approval rating went up in a month from 42% now 48% some even got at the 50% mark. This new Happy modd for Obama is probably coming from the new congress. Problem is the new congress isn't going to fix anything really.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/10/poll-huckabee-most-liked-palin-provokes-most-negative-reaction/

G.O.P Want To Increase The Deficit.

The new Republican house wants to now repeal Obama's health care bill that passed last year. This was one of the promises that many Republicans made if they were elected. This of course will never happen, because the democrats hold the senate and the presidency , so no way it will be repealed now. The republicans are hypocrites they want to repeal the health care which will increase the deficit by 230 billion over the next 10 years. this means that not only will the under a Republican government the health of the nation will lower and they will increase the deficit. Under Obama's plan although it is not universal health care it would at least insure that all Americans can have health care insurance. The Republicans are hypocrites when it comes to the deficit. There is no reason not to have Obama's health care bill stay in fact it isn't enough universal health care is what the United state's need. The U.S under Republican ideology will be moving years back not that the U.S isn't already going backwards.

The people "want this bill repealed and we are going to repeal it," said House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio. If it is not repealed, "it will ruin the best health care system in the world ... (and) will ruin our economy."

The new house speaker thinks the U.S has the best health care in the world that is false. According to the WHO (World Health Organization) ranks the U.S 37 on the best health care system. Canada is 30th 1st is France. The U.S is behind Costa Rica.

Legislation being pushed by House Republicans to repeal President Barack Obama's health care overhaul will add $230 billion to the federal debt by 2021, according to an analysis released Thursday by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

Read more here

Congress is coming back.

On Wednesday the senate and congress is coming back. It seems a mix of issues are going to come this year. the Deficit will be big news today, the health care bill will be very interesting how that plays out. many Republicans ran on repealing the health care bill thing is that there is no way the health care bill will be repealed. It seems that the only thing that could get done this year would be major reforms I hope, both the Republicans and Democrats believe in some way of reducing the deficit why not then make a compromise that actually would work. Cut spending in : the military, government programs and increasing the retirement age. The Republicans could possibly agree with that and if Obama can really sell it maybe he could push in minor taxes like a national sales tax starting at 5% which would be one of the lowest sales tax in the developed world. These plans could lower the the deficit dramatically and increase revenue while doing these actions slowly over the course of time to not hurt the economy. Although I still believe that the U.S must raise income tax I think that the income tax increase to the Bill Clinton era should include extended unemployment benefits,tax relief to small business and more relief to states. Yes it is true some of the stimulus I stated are already in the tax deal Obama passed ( thank you Anonymous), but I think then you should increase relief to the states like California who really need it, while still telling the state to cut in the budget by giving 1$ of new spending for every 2$ of cuts the state makes. Without increasing the income tax I think the U.S will never reach surplus without even more dramatic cuts in the budget.

Deficit's still there Obama.

There will still be a deficit when Obama comes back home to the white house the country will still be in deficit. In fact not a surplus will even be predicted in next 10 years and even by then the U.S GDP will be the same as there debt. Meaning that the U.S will owe the same amount as they are worth. At that point countries don't tend to continue to lend money to a country that can't get a surplus ever. Obama needs to cut the deficit, but how? Well he should have eliminated the pointless Bush tax cuts. Now he will increase the debt another 850 billion. Clearly the U.S can't afford this. create a national sales tax that the U.S doesn't have reduce consumption in the U.S so the country's economy isn't so dependent on consumption. Raise the retirement age create a carbon tax and reduce the military budget and stop building more missiles. End subsidies to big oil or fossil fuels. To all this and pass one more stimulus that actually works by first giving relief to states, extend unemployment benefits, give small business tax relief and that's it no more spending after that. Unfortunately the Republicans are more for cutting, which is fine with me cutting spending is a good idea, but cutting will never be enough the U.S may need to realise this now or face major consequences that they need in order to balance the budget increase taxes.

2012 Predictions.

In 2012 it may be to early to predict the presidential election, but there is one problem.  The senate will be the real problem. First the Democrats only have 51 senators and 2 independents that support there party. This means in order for the Republicans only need to pick up 4 seats to claim a majority in the senate. In the the next election out of the 33 Senate seats that are up in the election 23 Senate seat are held by democrats only 10 are held by Republicans. With a possibly somewhat not as popular as they were in 2008 mode on the Democrats Republicans will have an easy time grabbing the senate. They already have the House and odds are they will keep it in 2012. Meaning a Republican president would control all 3 chambers, and have the supreme court still undercontrol by Republican president nominees. Even if Obama does win reelection there is no way he will keep the senate or grab the House back, but if he stays one more term he could appoint one justice to the supreme court and make the supreme court have more democrats appointed in the court than Republicans. Democrats woun't have a great 2012 even if they relect Obama the senate will turn red alomst for sure, and the Republicans will keep the majority of the house.

Lame Duck session a sucess?

It seems to me like more things got done in the past two months than got done in the last year. Don't ask don't tell was repealed, the start treaty was signed, the tax cut extensions were passed and a 9/11 health care bill passed. This you could think is some sort of a success in a lame duck session, but wait the real lame duck session is about to happen when congress comes back. With an overweeningly republican House and a weak democratic lead in the senate. Republicans have the upper hand here,and this so called bipartisanship I guess it will have to continue. Obama has nothing to argue with, because now he needs tremendous amount of compromise. He can't pass a bill in the senate without having 7 Republicans vote with them. This is assuming Obama gets all his senators to support him. In the house 25 Republicans need to go along. Republicans are really good at joining together and voting together, so 25 may sound simple, but Obama may not even get one without the support of the leader of he house or senate. This isn't good at all. With the Republicans controlling the House and Senate and with the need to compromise or nothing gets done Obama's agenda will be pushed hard towards the right. Meaning no clear plan on climate change, deficit cutting will be very hard to pass and the U.S could start to move backwards when it comes to the environment and a sustainable economy.

Related articles

• Obama Getting High Marks For Lame Duck Session (outsidethebeltway.com)
• Obama's lame-duck victory lap? (politico.com)

Obama Cracks on Tax Cuts.

Obama was taken over by the Republicans who by the way right now only can filibuster in the senate, so because of them the U.S will not reduce the deficit and will continue giving tax cuts to the richest and poorest Americans. This means that all Bush tax cuts will continue for 2 years.The president who I thought was going to make the change now and was going to stop kicking the tough legislation down the road is apparently misleading on his promise. Obama should use something that is called leadership and end the terrible tax cuts. The U.S should start doing stuff now. Two years of adding to the deficit will not help battle the deficit. I say Eliminate it clearly it didn't work if the greatest recession happened during them. Tax cuts aren't the answer. The U.S will eventually have no choice, but to increase taxes eventually just maybe to pay off the interest on the debt. The interest on the debt is a bigger budget item then the federal pensions. CBO projections say that at the year 2015 the interest on the debt will be 487 billion per year. Double what the government spends on income security in 2015 according to the CBO projections. The Obama compromise to extend tax cuts for two years fell in the house I hope gridlock stays on this issue until it is to late to do anything, and all tax rates go back to were they should be.

Related articles

• Tax-Cut Deal With Obama Riles Some Republicans (npr.org)
• Put it on the board - Goolsbee draws on cuts for the rich (politico.com)

Bush tax cuts up for debate.

Obama old plan was to extend tax cuts for the people making 250,000 or less, but the Republicans want to keep the tax rate for everyone. Now it seems that middle class tax payers aren't going to have to worry about a tax increase considering that there seems to be a general consesses, but what I find confusing is that the Republicans want to spend billions on Bush tax cuts for the rich, and want to cut spending on what some Tea party cadidate calls useless. Like spending money on education, science, Uneployment benifits, Health care, Social security. When will they realize that in order to make the country reduce it's enormouse deficit you need to actually stop all Bush era taxes, stop corporation loopholes, make minor cuts and make reforms like a real uneviresal health care and a national Phramacare system. With Republicans in the house and having major fillibuster power in the senate non of this is going to get done, and I can see in 2012 some Republican candidate saying that Obama didn't cut enough. The U.S looks right now very hard to fix, but I still remain hopeful that at some time taxes will eventually rise for everyone, and better now than at a point when taxes will need to rise just to pay off the intrest on the debt.

And Now Compromise.

Many Republicans in the Senate and in the House would like to destroy the Obama Health care bill. The half done bill that Obama Promised, and really who could blame him that is all he could get throw. Now the some Republicans believe that they can destroy the bill, but Obama still has the Senate and the Veto so forget it. Obama said that he wants now to compromise some parts of the health care bill and Bush tax cuts. Problem is that Obama is doing things half done (not full universal health care and only ending tax breaks for the rich) more compromising towards the right will be even worse.  Obama didn't do such a good job on the stimulus. He should have spend much more on investments. Obama isn't terrible he wants to do most of the things I have motioned, but because some Republicans he couldn't. Now I would like to see what they can compromise?

Related articles

• Washington press asks wrong guys to compromise (dailykos.com)
• Obama Talks Need Of Compromise With GOP (huffingtonpost.com)