In the midst of scandal Peter Penashue resigned and is seeking re-election in Labrador. This by-election is perfectly placed to be a present for the next Liberal leader. Another seat for a party that lost so much in the last election would be a great present for the parties future leader.
The prospects look very promising. First the big boost is of course the scandals around Peter Penashue will most defiantly make him lose many votes. And in fact that is really all that is needed to elect a Liberal in the next election. Labrador only elected Peter by 78 votes. This riding has a long Liberal history. Since Newfoundland became a part of Canada in 1948 this riding has only elected a conservative twice. In 1968 and 2011. Every other election since 1948 this riding has elected a Liberal.
Added on to that, the Conservatives have committed practical political suicide in the east supporting drastic changes to Employment insurance. Even the Conservatives support for the seal hunt won`t do much good as the Liberals are also in favor of keeping the seal hunt going. The NDP will have some issue`s though conveying that message. With the Greens even deciding to step out of this election in favor of some sort of co-operation to unseat Peter Penashue (that the NDP refused to take part in) that frees up some 132 progressive votes from the last election, which most certainly will vote for either the Liberals or NDP.
Put all these together and it seems that the Conservatives will be even lucky to place second let alone first. The first place winner looking at the evidence will most likely be Yvonne Jones the Liberal candidate. If the Liberals win this by-election it will grow the Liberal caucus to 36, which is 2 more than the 2011 election results. We are the only major party which has grown in size since 2011. The Conservatives are down 2 so far at 164 and the NDP are 3 down now at 100.
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I've heard from someone involved with the NDP in Labrador that Penashue has a fair bit of support and to expect a three way race. This is the Liberals to lose, but it could happen. Especially with the likely chance of Liberal candidate facing a law suit soon for allegedly slandering a company who ended up losing a ferry contract between Labrador & the island.
ReplyDeleteThomas Mulcair has shown interest in this by-election. Probably trying to prove that he can win against the Conservatives in a rural riding. But I think that this race is still much in the favor of the Liberal candidate Yvonne. The history, the demographics are all in her favor. The NDP will most likely fight for second place.
ReplyDeleteHere's an editorial from the CBC that mentions how Liberals admit their is solid support for Penashue in the riding. I also forgot about how the Liberals continued infighting will impact the race.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2013/03/27/nl-john-gushue-labrador-byelection-331.html
There may be solid support, but I think Peter lost a great deal of support from moderates and sympathizers conservatives who helped get them elected. Therefor Peter I don't think is in any position to win, but out strip expectations.
ReplyDeleteWell, I think Labrador has been rather lucky in some respect as they get a second chance to get rid of their Corporate Conservative. Personally, I don't really care if the NDP or Liberal candidate gets elected but Penashue has to go ASAP. Too many bobble heads in Ottawa supporting Harper without sending him back.
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