BC Election.... No Show.

The British Colombian election is set for May 14th, and it's pretty straight forward. People in BC no longer support the BC liberals after three consecutive terms. BC Liberals have been losing popularity since they won the 2009 BC election.

The NDP started out the year nearly at 50%, and having twice as much support as the Liberals. The BC Conservatives which usually get 3-4% in the polls started to eat away at the BC Liberals support, and almost took second place just a Little over a year ago. But ever since May 2013 the BC Conservatives have collapsed and the BC liberals have started building up some support.

Right now the election looks like a no show, but their our some interesting things to look out for.

1. The support and seat capability of the Greens
2. The strength of the Conservatives
3. How big will the NDP win

1. The greens
The Greens are currently polling at around 10-13% which is very high for the Green party in British Columbia. Unfortunately the Greens won't get a seat in this election most likely. Jane Sterk decided to run in Victorian Beacon Hill which was a bad decision. This riding is home of the former leader of the BC NDP Carole James who carried the riding with 55% of the vote in 2009. With NDP polling above their 2009 levels it will be hard to see how the Greens can go from 17% to a victory in this riding. With the NDP running high it's hard to see how the Greens could combat the stream. The Greens will very likely place a strong second in this riding.

How will success be measured
- The Greens success will be measured by whether or not they are able to gain a seat or improve their share of the popular vote.
 (I will go to greater detail on the riding the green party could win in this election.)

2. The Strength of the Conservatives 

The Conservatives just about a year ago was tied for second place with the BC Liberals, but like many parties that suddenly blib high in the polls it is often short lived. (Remember when Francois Legault was leading in Quebec). What will interesting to see is whether the Conservative party of BC can became a real visible party in British Columbia elections. 

How will success be measured 

- If the Conservatives get 10% of the vote it will be a big win for them, because it will show that they do have a base in province to build on. 

-Another interesting thing to look out for is whether or not the Conservatives in BC will beat the Greens in popular vote. 

3. How big will the NDP win?

If all goes well, and no gaffes emerge than the NDP should be heading for a big majority government come May 14th. The real test for the NDP is whether they will be given power, because they are popular or because the other is less popular. In 2009 the BC NDP got 42% of the vote, and today they are polling anywhere between 46%-38%.If the NDP don't improve their numbers on 2009 that would prove that the NDP won only, because the BC Liberals are unlikable.  

How will success be measured 

- If the NDP don't improve on their election results from last election. 

Labrador By-Election!

In the midst of scandal Peter Penashue resigned and is seeking re-election in Labrador. This by-election is perfectly placed to be a present for the next Liberal leader. Another seat for a party that lost so much in the last election would be a great present for the parties future leader.

The prospects look very promising. First the big boost is of course the scandals around Peter Penashue will most defiantly make him lose many votes. And in fact that is really all that is needed to elect a Liberal in the next election. Labrador only elected Peter by 78 votes. This riding has a long Liberal history. Since Newfoundland  became a part of Canada in 1948 this riding has only elected a conservative twice. In 1968 and 2011. Every other election since 1948 this riding has elected a Liberal.

Added on to that, the Conservatives have committed practical political suicide in the east supporting drastic changes to Employment insurance. Even the Conservatives support for the seal hunt won`t do much good as the Liberals are also in favor of keeping the seal hunt going. The NDP will have some issue`s though conveying that message. With the Greens even deciding to step out of this election in favor of some sort of co-operation to unseat Peter Penashue (that the NDP refused to take part in) that frees up some 132 progressive votes from the last election, which most certainly will vote for either the Liberals or NDP.

Put all these together and it seems that the Conservatives will be even lucky to place second let alone first. The first place winner looking at the evidence will most likely be Yvonne Jones the Liberal candidate. If the Liberals win this by-election it will grow the Liberal caucus to 36, which is 2 more than the 2011 election results. We are the only major party which has grown in size since 2011. The Conservatives are down 2 so far at 164 and the NDP are 3 down now at 100.

Liberals Growing Irrelevance In West.

The Liberal party has a major problem. We seem for the most part since May 2nd 2012 to be up from our election results. All major projections have us gaining some dozens or more seats and racking up a few more votes. But in the West is our major problem. In Western Canada the Provincial parties although not completely similar to the national party do offer enormous showing of how Liberal values fair in the province. The answer isn't so well

In fact Saskatchewan and Manitoba had election recently. In the Manitoba provincial election 2011 the Liberal party got 8% of the vote (4% down from last time around) while the NDP and the PC got well over 40%. The Liberal party only got 1 seat (from their 2 last time around) and that was only given to the leader of the party. In Manitoba they practically have a two party system with a little dot of red in Winnipeg.

In Saskatchewan the situation was just plain sad. The Liberals even before the election were somewhat irrelevant politically getting 9% of the vote in 2007 and no seats. In 2011 is when the situation got sad. The Liberal party only had 9 candidates running out of the 57 ridings. The Green Party of Manitoba Saskatchewan at least had a full slate. The election result was predictable. No seats and only 0.6% of the vote. The Green party of Manitoba no surprise got third place in the vote count with 3%.

If you look at the polls for the national Liberals they are third place in the parries while the NDP and the Tories battle it out. Although there are signs of hope. In Alberta the Liberals did get pushed into third place and did lose a lot of votes as well as seats, but the fact remains that we didn't lose it to the NDP. Second pace went to the Wildrose. Not that this should bring comfort, but the fact remains we did 900 more votes and 1 seat more then the NDP. Which makes us the Progressive leaders in Alberta's politics for the next few years.

But the Liberal Party still has major challenges out in the west and they must tackle them now! Our party can't rebuild only in Toronto and Montreal. We need to look to the west!

Alberta Election Tomorrow!

With Alberta seeming to have the choice between one right wing party and well another even more right wing party it seems like Alberta will have it's first most exciting election in a long time. With the Wildrose holding onto a lead and the PC slightly edging upwards tomorrow  is going to be something to watch. For political Junkies like me this is very exciting. So here are my projections for tomorrow night. As you can see I give the Wildrose a strong lead, because the PC a few days ago I thought might be able to really bridge the gap, but the latest polling says otherwise.

Wildrose : 41%         46 seats (Majority)
PC          :34%          38 seats
Liberals   :12%           0 seats
NDP       :12%           3 seats
Alberta Party:1%        0 seats


As you can see even though the Alberta Liberals have the same percentage as the NDP they end up with no seats, because there votes isn't as concentrated in specific areas like the NDP. It is a shame that the Alberta Liberals will go from official opposition to no seat status even though they may come up with more votes than the NDP. I guess this only proves we need democratic reform, because as you can see the Liberals will get a substantial amount of support, but no seats to represent those people. Also the Wildrose will get a majority even though they didn't get the majority of the seats.

Climate Skeptic In The West

It seems I have one more reason I don't want the Wildrose alliance to win. But Alberta's according to recent polls have them at a 7% point lead. The PC are in second, the NDP and the Liberals way far behind. 

"We have always said the science isn't settled and we need to continue to monitor the debate,"

Yes the Wildrose is saying that the science isn't settled, and therefor don't have a major plan to reduce emissions. Even though 97% of climate scientist agree that humans are causing man made climate change. Even the PC in the oil rich province of Alberta agree that global warming is real and CO2 emissions are causing it. This isn't just Danielle Smith personal belief this is party policy.

A Wildrose official confirmed Smith's statement reflects a longtime party policy.

 I don't know why I didn't remember this before Rick Mercer went with Danielle Smith for a day and they discussed global warming, and she admitted her skepticism of climate change. I think that having one of the most polluting provinces in Alberta led by a party that doesn't believe in a science that is fully settled ruins any chances of achieving the needed 80% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2050. 

Read more here

Way To Stand Out!

The Alberta Liberals released there platform for the upcoming election in 2012. In the platform is a radical policy (at least I think) to try and reduce tuition cost of universities, and apparently try to completely eliminate it by 2025. Alberta tuition is the 4th highest in the world  country. Now I do think that tuition in Alberta should not rise and even slightly reduce for now. But to eliminate it I think it comes to a point where the government could better use the money. I am all for forgiving debt to people who want to become doctors, but it get's to a point especially in the future where universities will want money and the government will be too strapped to pay for it. In Quebec the tuition hikes are needed in Alberta a reduce is very welcomed. Being a fiscal conservative I think that high subsidization of education is good and more money for low income families are good as well, but free is too much money. We have to have priorities, and education should be on the top of the list, but our government has other places to put money into especially in Alberta when it comes to Health Care. If lower waiting times and balanced budget's mean students paying some money I think that is fair. Maybe Alberta can afford it, because it has oil , but I still say the money can be better spent. I am still routing for the Alberta Liberals in the 2012 election.

Opposition to Harper: Nonexistant

Who will rise this year to challenge Stephen Harper, to oppose him credibly? There might be many credible attacks on the Conservatives in 2012, but the no one will be listening. There was a reason the Tories received a majority government in May: so that Canadians would not have to hear about politics for another four years.

Besides that, the Liberals are too busy rebuilding to oppose him for a good while and the New Democrats still have a couple of months before they choose their leader. Unless the Tories make a huge mistake, the political landscape should stay as is: calm and placid.

Who will emerge to provide tough, credible opposition to Stephen Harper in 2012? 

Harper enters the year with a majority in the House of Commons, a majority on the Supreme Court of Canada and an even greater majority in the Senate, with Friday’s appointment of seven more loyal Conservatives pledging fealty to the leader.

Read more at the Toronto Star.

My Interview with Alexandra Mendès Part 1

I had a phone interview with one of the candidates running for President of the Liberal party of Canada. As we all know this is one of the most important positions us Liberals have to elect at the Convention.

Q: One of the issues the President of the Liberal party is going to have to face is to attract former Liberals back to the party. How do you intend to do that?

A: By Honoring their past service to the party.We often forget that people who have been Liberals who have been discouraged from the party. Lot of Liberals got discourage by the infighting and the division and this has been going on since the leadership campaign in1984. I come to the conclusion that we are our worse enemy. For me to recover the thrust of the Liberals who left the boat we must show them we have changed. Infighting is not acceptable. As Liberals we have the right to our opinion, but shouldn't resort to fighting each other.

Q: What is your view on the Leader's power to veto the nomination of the candidates from the EDA?

A: I have no problem eliminating the veto power of the leader of the party, but we should maintain the power of nomination In order to have diversity (in respects to gender, handicaps etc…) .We can’t be always assured that the EDA will always take diversity into account. I am fully in favor of affirmative action.

Q: How would you reform the policy process in the Liberal Party? And would you be for voting on policies online?

 A:The national policy chair is in charge of that. I don’t think I should be taking on all the executive rolls. We should encourage technology as form of modernization of the process. We can do it and do it well.

Q: What do you think about a zero dollar membership fee?

A: I am not against it or in favor. We should make membership as easy as possible. The fee is very symbolic and the process should be made easy.

So What Happened In Saskatchewan?

The last of the provincial elections hora is over. It went from a Liberal win in Both PEI, and Ontario. To a NDP victory in Manitoba And two right wing parties winning in NFL and Sask. No incumbent party lost there power. In Sask the right wing party lead by Mr. Wall won a landslide victory! The Liberals well what is there to say about them. I read there platform It gave no specifics! Especially on the spending cuts. The Liberal party got not even a 1%. Last time around they got 9%. By the way the Green party got more votes than us! They ran a full slate and the Liberals didn't. It seems that these elections have taught us a few things.


1. The Orange crush in all provinces is no where to be seen

In Manitoba although winning the election actually lost support. In Ontario the NDP got nowhere where they were polled let alone there federal results in the province. In PEI they got less votes than the Greens at 3%. In NFL although getting 24% of the vote they not only are in 3rd party status to the Liberals, but also didn't reach there federal election results. In Sask they dropped in support even though the Liberals didn't run candidates in most of the province.

2. The Liberals aren't dead

With regaining nearly a majority In Ontario, a majority In PEI, at least one seat in Manitoba and being the official opposition in NFL Shows us that Liberals aren't gone. In Sask the Liberals lost terribly, but it's safe to say that even if the Liberals won a majority government in 2011 there was no way the Liberals would do any better in Sask.

Who Won in Ontario?

Last night was exciting to watch! The Liberals were up and down the majority level for hours, but it turned out that the Liberals have no majority status anymore in Queens park. So who won Ontario well the Liberals did win a minority government, and I think considering that they won the province that was just a month ago prepared to kick out the Liberals and create a new PC majority government I think the Liberals did great in this campaign. The PC grabbed 12 seats and did better than expected in the vote count so they are winners only because they managed to keep Mcguinty out of a majority, but considering PC were unable to win against the Liberals who were polling really low just a month ago I think this isn't that much of a win. The NDP had a bit of a disappointing night. They grabbed 7 more seats and 7% more votes than last time. They were expected to get in the mid 20's on votes, but even more importantly they were expected to more than double there seat count from 2007 (7).

So to recap
Winners (with a grain of salt)
Liberals: for regaining a third term in power with a strong Minority
PC: for grabbing a good amount of seats and putting the Liberals in majority, but not able to get there on governments like the governments polls said they would.
NDP: grabbing more seats and now having the most seats they have has in decades, but not able to break Ontario the way they were expected to early in the campaign and the day before the end. 

But I think that this has been a relatively good week for the Liberals. Winning another majority government in PEI and another strong government in Ontario. We had  a disappointing show in Manitoba, but all in all you can't complain much for all the great wins we had this week. And just one more thing a Liberal majority in Ontario is just one by-election away!

Ontario Has a choice

Ontario on October 6th has a choice they can vote for Hudack who will hurt health care in the province. Hudack will be a sell out to Harper in 2014 on the health accord. Hudack would cancel corporation deals that are going to create thousands of jobs. Hudack would eliminate the Green energy policies that would create more clean energy for Ontario. The Liberal party of Ontario has done good choices for Ontario. They simplified the tax code by creating the HST, and over ten years the HST will create 591,000 jobs. The Liberal party is on the right track to making the energy grid of the province more green. David Suzuki even supports his green plan. The Liberal party of Ontario won't sell out to Harper in 2014. The Liberal party of Ontario has done a good job creating jobs in the province. This year Ontario created more jobs then the rest of Canada combined. The Liberal party is going to reduce tuition by 30%. What have the NDP proposed? they are like the Republicans of the U.S always voting no, and just waiting for power. The NDP voted against the stimulus that has created many jobs in Ontario. The NDP you would think support Green jobs, but they are going to cut Green jobs. David Suzuki says her plan is more about getting political power than doing what's right. On October 6th Ontario has a choice. They can go with the Job killing agenda of Hudack,the Job killing agenda of Horwath or the Job creating record of Dalton Mcguinty. Ontario can go with Hudack's non priced budget or the fiscal responsibility Mcguinty is proposing of eliminating the deficit. Ontario can chose the NDP and PC terrible plan for the environment, or we can go with the plan David Suzuki calls "An example to the rest of the world." Ontario has a choice and the polls show they might chose what is the best for the province.

Who Won PEI?

Yesterday PEI had an election where they re-elected the Liberal government. The Liberals got 22 and the PC got 5 seats. No some would claim that since the PC won more seats they did relatively well in the election. The fact of the matter is that the PC lost 2 seats in there traditional stronghold of rural PEI. They gained 3 seats. One by a landslide and 2 by 30 votes each. If there were recounts in these riding the Liberal could pick up two more seats and get 24-3. Therefor the PC have 1 less riding then they had in 2007. Even if the Liberals grab no extra seats the fact that the only gains the PC made were won by just a few 10 votes is sad. .This proves that these riding can easily change sides within the day. Also consider that the PC got less votes this time than last time around again proves they really didn't win any more support. The PC I think lost this election, but they did to be fair do somewhat better than expected not being completely swiped out of the province. The Liberals are the clear winners I believe. In a re-election where governing parties as we now politically have a harder time getting elected the Liberal lost one seat and 1.5%. Not bad.  I consider that a win. The Greens and NDP both picked up some more support in this election. The Greens still a proving to get more votes than the NDP.

to recap
Winners in this election: Liberals for getting another solid majority
Losers: PC for barely growing in this election
Small victories: Green for gaining 1% more in the province and for still placing 3rd in the vote count , and the NDP for gaining 1% also like the Greens

Elections almost here!

Today is October 3rd and the first big test's for all the political parties on the provincial stage. First up is today in PEI. It seems that the Liberals will grab this province, but the question is will they be able to fully eliminate the Conservatives out of office. The Conservatives only need one seat in the province to be considered an official party, another test will be is the Green's in the province can grow there numbers, and if the NDP can get more votes than the Greens in the province. In 2007 the Greens got 3% and the NDP got 2%.Also today is the territorial election in NWT, but there is no provincial Liberals, Conservatives or NDP in the province. So hard to read anything from that election about federal politics, but I will still be watching it.

 On October 4th the day after those two elections Manitoba will be having it's election. It seems that it could be tied in votes. The last to polls had both NDP and PC very close to each other, but that doesn't seem to matter , because it seems that the NDP are going to get a majority government either way. I say the test here for the NDP isn't to win a majority government which it looks like it's going to get, but whether it can still get more votes province wide than the PC. For us I say are test is to try and get the same support if not grow from last election and keep the current seats we have. It doesn't seem we have much to gain here. If the Greens get the 4% they are polled it will be a win for them considering last time they got 1%.

Then it's the big prize of Ontario. The test for the Liberals is to maintain a majority government. Right now they are polling quite even with the PC, but in seats the projections have the Liberals at the border of a majority. The PC test will be if they can get more votes than the Liberals, and more importantly if they can put the Liberals down to a minority, but it won't matter I don't think the NDP will prop Hudack. The NDP there big test is today. in no other election are they going to make more gains. Last time they got 10 seats right now if they can get the 25% of the vote like they gor in the federal election just some month ago they will prove that there power hasn't diminished quite yet.

It seems the Tories aren't going to win anything. In PEI it looks like they will be swept away. In Manitoba they might get the exact same as the last time around. In Ontario what seemed to be a slam duck for them is now a big major upset by the Liberals. It seems all the incumbents will get another chance at the bat.

Vote Compass Ontario

The CBC is at it again. And being someone who follows politics I find it very enjoying to try these voting compasses. Even though I can't vote in the up coming election me being not in the province in question and all. It is still slightly interesting (not really) that my results were pared up pretty good with the Liberal party of Ontario. Try it for yourself. According to the vote compass I am slightly more to the economic left than the Liberals in the province and am slightly less socially liberal than the premier. And go figure the PC i was no where near close too. Try it for yourself 

The Jewish Vote!

Jews have at least traditionally voted liberal or left leaning when it comes to politics at least in N.A. In Canada they tend to vote Liberal or NDP more than Conservative. But now the Jewish vote has been moving to the right. Although Liberals and Conservatives strongly support Israel which has been seen as the biggest issue for many Jewish communities. Harper has made the case he is the only one who support's Israel. Even though this has no basis the Liberals have also supported Israel, by making sure that terrorist organization like Hezbollah didn't get any money from Canada, but Harper has been good at getting the Jewish votes for the past few years. 

and now in Montreal the ridings with a lot of Jewish votes gave Harper a chance to get a seat on the island. In Mont Royal where the biggest religion is Jewish and considered one of the most Liberal riding's for years gave the Liberals 41% And the Conservatives got 36% in of the vote (in 2011) compared to winning this riding by at lest 9% to as high as 80% for the past 70 years over the next contender . This was the closest the Conservatives have ever gotten into winning this riding since 1958 when Diefenbaker got 54% of the vote nationally and still lost this riding by 1%. In other more Jewish populated ridings Thorn-hill they helped Harper crack Toronto by voting for him in 2008 and especially in 2011. In the U.S Obama got major support from the Jews in 2008, but with Obama being considered to hard on Israel will the Jews go to the Republicans? Well ever since exit polls were taken Jews have voted with the Democrat (even in 1980 they voted for Carter over Reagan), but Antony Wiener's old district that has a lot of Jews helped him won in 2010 with 60% just went to the Republicans by 53%-47% last week. Now we won't know for sure in the U.S whether this shift is real until the exit polls of 2012 come out.

Ontario Could Stay Red.

threehundredeight.com has a new projection in the province of Ontario. It predicts that Ontario will be an even split. 44 Liberals, 44 Tories and 19 NDP. Which means a split government that would probably give Mcguinty another term in office. It seems Hudack is moving down the polls, and Liberals are back and fighting for a government. This trend has been going on for quite a while, and if continued can give the Liberals another majority government. some polls even have the Liberals way ahead of the Conservatives. It seems the Liberals right now are on the up swing, and I hope to see Ontario stay in the red column in Ontario. 

The poll also found that only 45 per cent of respondents believed McGuinty had much of a plan for the province's future.

"While I'm not prepared to say I'm absolutely certain that it's a 10-point Liberal advantage, I feel pretty confident that what we're picking up is some narrowing of the race," Anderson said.

Hudak found himself defending Randy Hillier, a high-profile Tory candidate who has been embroiled in a long-running tax dispute with Canada Revenue Agency.

Can We take Toronto-Danforth Part 3

So far in my last two post I have said that after the three elections; 2004, 2006 and 2008. The Liberals would likely win a by-election where Jack Layton would no longer be running, but a by-election today wouldn't be that Liberal leaning. The Reason: May 2nd


in the 2011 election Jack Layton grabbed 62% and the Liberals all the way down at 18% only a few points ahead of the Conservative candidate. Now that Jack Layton has sadly died his name wouldn't get him major support like 2011. Even though there support in the province is high the fact that the leader of the political party isn't running any more would take some of that support back. So if a by-election was held today and a random NDP person ran then i predict the NDP would win with about 50%. Liberals a strong second at the high twenties. But this all depends of course when the by-election will be held and it could take a lot of time, so as soon as a date is set I will write more on this, but for now the NDP can expect very strong support in that riding for now at least.

Can We take Toronto-Danforth Part 2

Now That I am done explaining how Liberals would have been very much able to win a by election in Ontario let's look at now the 2006 election. In 2006 Liberals went  in the country and  in Ontario. In Toronto Danforth the Liberal candidate also dropped by 7% while the NDP had a pretty good lead this time around with Jack Layton won 48% more than a double digit lead. If there was a by election after this election would Liberals win it?

Well after 2006 is somewhat similar to today since at that time the Liberals did have an interim leader. So would the Liberals win. I still think yes, because considering that the Liberals would campaign against someone who wouldn't be the leader and the riding has had a Liberal history.

In 2008 The NDP kept about the same support in the Province of Ontario. The Liberals went down. In Mr. Layton's riding the Liberals and NDP both dropped and the lead was 15% now. If there was a by election after that election. I would think the Liberals would still win for the same reason.

Can We Take Toronto-Danforth! part (1)

Toronto-Danforth is going to have an election very soon in order to fill the vacancy. This riding has only voted NDP since 2004 when Jack Layton just after Jack Layton became leader of the NDP. Now that Jack Layton has sadly died is it possible for us Liberals to take back that seat from the NDP. Well let's look at the numbers

In 2000 the last time the riding voted for the Liberals (although at that time the boundaries were slightly different  ) Liberals got 52% of the vote the NDP were only at 27%. In 2000 the Province of Ontario voted about the same at 52% Liberal with only 8% voting NDP. This of course no surprise that NDP votes tend to be higher in Toronto compared with the rest of the province. In 2004 When the NDP had a strong revival they took 18% of the vote in the province, and as there leader was running in the riding he of course won it with 46% of the vote while the Liberals in the riding dropped 10% to just five points lower than Jack Layton compared with the only 6% in the province. What do these numbers mean? It means that if a by-election was done in this riding around 2005 and Jack Layton wasn't running this riding would be a leaning Liberal riding again. As Liberals would be playing in a riding they only lost slightly and be running against a candidate that wouldn't be the leader of the party.

Provincial Elctions

Three provincial election will be held in October, and all of them after each other. The first election is on October 3rd in PEI, and right now unless something drastic happens it seems like the Liberals will win one more majority government in the province, and may even completely sweep out opposition in the province. After October 3rd the next day Liberals will be watching an election that we right now aren't major contenders.  Manitoba! While we are the underdogs in Manitoba right now we are poised to make some gains in the province. Then will come the big test for Liberals in Ontario October 6th. this election is looking like it's going to be exciting a projection shows Hudack is right now holds a small lead that would only give him a slim majority. In fact the Liberals highest seat rage is one seat below majority! In October the Liberals can push out a win that shows that we are still here! As for me I will be trying my best to make some predictions later on in the campaign. One things for sure September is going to be a good month for political junkies.