Tuesday, April 16, 2013

BC Election.... No Show.

The British Colombian election is set for May 14th, and it's pretty straight forward. People in BC no longer support the BC liberals after three consecutive terms. BC Liberals have been losing popularity since they won the 2009 BC election.

The NDP started out the year nearly at 50%, and having twice as much support as the Liberals. The BC Conservatives which usually get 3-4% in the polls started to eat away at the BC Liberals support, and almost took second place just a Little over a year ago. But ever since May 2013 the BC Conservatives have collapsed and the BC liberals have started building up some support.

Right now the election looks like a no show, but their our some interesting things to look out for.

1. The support and seat capability of the Greens
2. The strength of the Conservatives
3. How big will the NDP win

1. The greens
The Greens are currently polling at around 10-13% which is very high for the Green party in British Columbia. Unfortunately the Greens won't get a seat in this election most likely. Jane Sterk decided to run in Victorian Beacon Hill which was a bad decision. This riding is home of the former leader of the BC NDP Carole James who carried the riding with 55% of the vote in 2009. With NDP polling above their 2009 levels it will be hard to see how the Greens can go from 17% to a victory in this riding. With the NDP running high it's hard to see how the Greens could combat the stream. The Greens will very likely place a strong second in this riding.

How will success be measured
- The Greens success will be measured by whether or not they are able to gain a seat or improve their share of the popular vote.
 (I will go to greater detail on the riding the green party could win in this election.)

2. The Strength of the Conservatives 
The Conservatives just about a year ago was tied for second place with the BC Liberals, but like many parties that suddenly blib high in the polls it is often short lived. (Remember when Francois Legault was leading in Quebec). What will interesting to see is whether the Conservative party of BC can became a real visible party in British Columbia elections. 
How will success be measured 
- If the Conservatives get 10% of the vote it will be a big win for them, because it will show that they do have a base in province to build on. 
-Another interesting thing to look out for is whether or not the Conservatives in BC will beat the Greens in popular vote. 

3. How big will the NDP win?
If all goes well, and no gaffes emerge than the NDP should be heading for a big majority government come May 14th. The real test for the NDP is whether they will be given power, because they are popular or because the other is less popular. In 2009 the BC NDP got 42% of the vote, and today they are polling anywhere between 46%-38%.If the NDP don't improve their numbers on 2009 that would prove that the NDP won only, because the BC Liberals are unlikable.  

How will success be measured 
- If the NDP don't improve on their election results from last election. 

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