Tories Copy Again

The latest Tory ad came out yesterday. This tries to portray Stephen Harper as a great leader. Thankfully for the Liberals, we can compare this with a Tea Party governor ad. It seems strikingly similar. This also reminded me of a video the Liberals put out three years ago, during the 2008 election. The earlier video compares Harper's speech in favor of sending Canadian troops to Iraq to John Howard's speech. Here are the two videos.

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Campaign Ads

The Liberal Party of Canada has released four new television campaign ads as well as two other radio ads. The English-language ad focuses on the fact that Liberals care for families, whereas the Conservatives would rather spend money on fighter jets and corporate tax cuts. Followed by their statement that spending on government programs must be cut. The French ad focuses on Michael Ignatieff's "love for the province and its people." I do not find the second one well-done. The two other ads released are in foreign languages, so I do not understand them, but it's a good thing the Liberals are reaching out to minorities.

English


French


Punjabi


Portuguese

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Money and elections

It is common knowledge that money wins elections. If we look at tables containing the candidates and the money they spent, there is a clear correlation between money spent and who wins. This is the whole basis for most of the uproar about sponsorship scandals. But remember : correlation is not causation. Although more money might cause higher chances of victory, it could be that higher chances of victory causes more money. Or it could be that a candidate's appeal to the voting public causes both money and high victory percentages.

Let's first use an analogy to simplify the issue. When do you cheer for a sports team:

A) When they have a sure win

B) When they stand a possibility of loosing

C) When they stand a possibility of winning

D) When they have a sure loss

Most people would answer A, B, and C. If you answered A, it is probably because you wanted to cheer for your favourite team, which is currently dominating. If you answered B, it is probably to encourage your team to play a bit harder to minimise the chances of a loss. If you answered C, it was probably to get the final push going and claim victory. But if you answered D, it is because the team is your favourite, and it is unlikely that you would ever not cheer for it. Now just replace "team" with "politician and party", and "cheer" with money.

But if you don't like the logic type of argument, because the situation is actually more complex, then entreat the statistical argument. In the book Freakonomics, authors Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner provide statistical proof that the candidates spending hardly matters at all when it comes to elections. They do this by comparing elections where the same candidates ran against each other (because the candidate is relatively constant). They found that when a candidate slashed their spending in half, they lost only 1% of their vote. (They used the 1000+ Congressional races where two candidates ran together for several times in a row, from 1970 until 2005, when the book was published. You can read the entirety of this argument on pages 8 to 11.)

But if you present the anecdotal evidence of various politicians who were elected "by money", as it would seem, allow me to present counter-evidence. Steve Forbes and Michael Huffington did not win their elections, and neither did Thomas Golisano, who spent $93 million of his own money over three elections, and won 4%, 8%, and 14%.

In conclusion, money does not win elections, and neither do elections win money. The chances of success of a candidate, based on their personality, their appearance, their charisma, and their platform win elections. Money is simply a byproduct of the of the chances, and has very little effect, the same way cheering has very little effect on the game at hand.

Pucapab

We're fed up. That is the message of the new French-language campaign called Pucapab, Québecois slang for, "I cannot take it anymore." Accompanying the Facebook page is a well-made music. In my opinion, the video is very well done and the music too. Unlike the Conservative attack ads, these do not attack Harper's personality. This is not supposed to win over Conservative voters, it's designed to draw support from people who simply cannot take anymore of Harper. Those are Dippers, Bloc Québecois voters and Green Party. To win the next election, Liberals are going to have to show that when you vote for the NDP, Bloc or Green to vote against Harper, you end up with him.

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Better Warnings

Canada is to beef up the graphic warnings on cigarette boxes. The new labels, like the one found below will cover 75% of packages. It also includes the phone number of a quit smoking hotline. This is a good initiative from the Conservative government to improve the health of our nation. Cigarettes harm the different systems of the human body. Smokers eventually have to go to publicly funded hospitals for their problems. The cost then falls on all of Canada to pay. While the new labels might not be that efficient in encouraging smokers of a long time to quit, I can see this marketing scheme discouraging people from taking a first smoke.

The Liberals and NDP have accused the Tories of backing down in the face of lobbying from the tobacco industry against these labels. They say that this announcement is just "damage control" from when Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq postponed the creation of the new labels and the quit hotline. Maybe they are right. Maybe they are not. There is no proof to support these claims. Therefore, I do not care whatsoever. The plan is laid out and ready to be set in action.

Read more at the Toronto Star.

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Label Wordle

I created a wordle out of all the labels used in The Happy Wanderer. Enjoy!

Plane Stupid

A new advertisement by Plane Stupid sets out to show us the damage done by the aviation industry. Taking the plane emits more greenhouse gases than any other type of transport, except maybe the space shuttle. Congratulations to them on this fantastic commercial that won an award at the Cannes Film Festival.

http://planestupid.com

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Snakes on Bus

Fares are going to be raised in Montreal once again. It won't be a lot, but they have been raised non-stop since 2002 at three times the rate of inflation. The one thing an outside analyst proposed when he examined our transit system was to get more money from advertising. Some people propose renaming stations or metro lines, but I think that's going too far. The STM's plan to have companies sponsor lines in exchange for a small logo on maps should be examined, but there's another option that hasn't really been discussed.

Full-body advertisements on buses like this one in Copenhagen would bring in a lot more money. This money saved could go towards improvements so that we would not need to pay as much for them. I've seen a few of these types of advertisements, but not many. I'd like to see more and save more. In other news, vote for the design of the new Montreal metro cars.

The Copenhagen ad agency, working for the city zoo, took “very high res pictures” of all sides of a “normal city bus” and melded them with a picture of a very large boa constrictor, said Schack.

Read more at the Toronto Star.

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The Coca-Cola Metro?

The STM has said it will open bidding on sponsoring metro lines shortly. Some people have said that there is already enough advertising in the metro. However, the STM is always running a deficit year to year and the bill is always paid by taxpayers. With more advertising, will come more money that can be spent on better service, having a cellular network underground and screen with real-time information on the next departure. This is also the area in which a foreign analysis of our metro said we had to work on: putting more advertising in the metros. I would stop short of renaming whole metro lines and stations, but the city's proposal sounds like a good idea. I would also like to see more metro cars and buses with full-body advertising.

Montreal’s métro lines will be not be renamed after corporations or change their colours, and stations will not be plastered with advertising if the Société de transport de Montréal allows the private sector to “sponsor” lines, the STM said Tuesday.

“It will have to be discreet or we won’t do it,” STM executive director Yves Devin told reporters.

Read more at the Montreal Gazette.

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