Monday, January 02, 2012

Iowa Predictions

The New York Times are at it again they are trying to predicate the result of the elections in Iowa, and right now they say that there is a 38% chance that Romney will win Iowa. Ron Paul is in second place with only a 34% chance of winning the caucus. I predicting this a bit differently.

I think Paul will win the state of Iowa 

I believe he will win Iowa even though The des moines register shows that every day (over the past four days) Paul's support is going down and is now in 3rd place. The problem is that they only polled 150 people a day, and the margin of error of the poll of only 150 people is 8%. So Ron Paul's drop's could just be the margin of error, but when you add all the nights together the poll becomes more reliable. In total poll has Romney 24% and Paul 22% and Rick Santorum (who came out of nowhere "what a surprise") at 15%. 

But the Reason I think Paul will win Iowa are these polls

When asked who cares more about the debt  Paul wins 
When asked who is the most consistent Paul wins
When asked who will reduce foreign aid Paul wins 
When asked who is the least ego driven Paul wins 
When asked most relates to Iowans Paul ties for 1st 
When asked who will limit the government Paul wins 

(The Media I don't think mentioned these polls for some reasons) 

I think that if the Paul supporters who have always been motivated to vote no matter what the weather play the caucuses well and convince those soft supporters to vote for the person I think most Tea party people adore, Paul will win. 

Last poll that helps prove my point 41% of people could be persuaded to change their minds.

update: NYT just changed it's predictions to Romney 40% likely to win and Paul 36% likely to win, Rick Santorum behind with 21% likely to win. the New York Times likes to change it's number's I see so I will be continuously posting their projections. This is as of noon.

Update: NYT changed there number's again Romney 42% Paul 34% Rick Santorum 20%.

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