Tuesday, March 06, 2012

Super Tuesday proejections

A few hundred delegates will be up for grabs today and I have a few projection on who will win which state. In 2008 there was more than 20 states this time only 10. (which makes much easier to follow)

This state doesn't have many polls. The last poll was taken in mid February. With Romney at a 7% lead over Santorum, but considering that in mid February Santorum was up in the polls (and now he is down), and that the state borders Massachusetts I would predict this state a solid win for Romney. In second I would say just, because Ron Paul does very well in these New England states he would win second place.

A poll conducted five days ago had Romney at guess what 56% and his nearest rival Santorum at 16% (important to note 17% undecided. Now it is no guess to say Romney will win Massachusetts.

In Virginia only two candidates are running Ron Paul and Romney as none of the other candidates got enough signatures to get on the ballot. a poll done a few days ago has Romney at 69% and Paul at 26%. So again another landslide I predict in the Romney win circle.

Former house speaker Newt Gingrinch came from this state. This state might be his only win, but it will be a win none the less. A poll done just one days ago has him at a 20% lead another done just done two days ago has him at a 10% lead, and another also just done two days ago have him at a lead above 20%. It will be interesting to see how big his lead is. The New York Times have him at a 20% lead I think his lead will be over 20% as with the exception of that 10 point lead poll that is where most of the recent one's have him.

Rick Santorum used to have a decent lead here just a few weeks ago, but recently with a new poll coming out two days ago I doubt this will be a clean sweep. In 2008 during Super Tuesday Missouri split in the Republican side three ways (between Romney Huckabee and McCain) Now guess what it is happening again. Polls have Santorum at 30% Romney at 29% and Gingrich at 29%) I say this will be the closest race today, but if I had to chose I would chose Santorum just because Tennessee would seems like a very strong Rick state considering it's south which Romney has trouble with.

On March 4th seven polls came out. Since Ohio is seens as the big state in this race I will caculated the averages of all 7 polls to make one polls of polls.

here they are
Romney 34.3%
Santorum 32.7%
Gingrich15.6% Paul 10.9%

The New York Times has Romney winning this state with a two point lead, but still says Santorum has a 35% of winning the state. I think if I had to chose I would say Romney wins Ohio but by a margin no greater then 3%

Only two polls surfaced in the past few days one having Santorum at a 11% lead another at 8%. This is a state that Romney hasn't tried hard on so it is a safe Rick Santorum state. The lead I would think is around 10% which is about where the New York Times have it

Idaho and North Dakota
I couldn't find a singel poll in these states and the candidates that I know of haven't spent too much time here so I am basing this projection on 2008 results. In 2008 McCain won the state with 70% (this was when Romney and Huckabee both left the race) his next contender was Paul with 24% one of his best showings in 2008. This time I predict that Idaho will go for Paul. In Montana in 2008 Romney won 38% his next rival was Paul with 25%. I think that considering Paul has outdone his 2008 results in each states so far it isn't far fetch to say Paul could win this state.

The Last poll taken here was in 2010 October. It still had Huckabee and Sarah Palin as choices.  So for this state I go to 2008 where Romney won the state, but Ron Paul again has strong base in this state as well and like Idaho and North Dakota he could make an upset.

Romney wins
Ohio (1-3% Lead)
Massachusetts (over 30%)
Vermont (over 20%)
Virginia (over 30%)
Tennessee (1%-5%)
Oklahoma (10%)
Georgia (20%-25%)
Ron Paul
Idaho (?%)
Montana (?%)
Alaska (?%)

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