Thursday, July 19, 2012

No Green Candidate in Etobicoke Center

In a surprising move Elisabeth may said that she would urge her party not to run a candidate in Etobicoke center a riding that may be forced to have a by-election. First let`s state how much this could help the Liberal party if the Greens didn`t run a candidate. The May 2nd 2011 result was

Conservative Ted       21,661
Liberal          Borys    21,635
NDP             Ana        7,731
Green           Katarina  1,454
Marxist Leninist  Sarah   149

Now with the Greens not running a candidate this is good to be true, but  some would say that the high in the polls NDP may grab the riding. Following a current forum research poll Ontario since 2011 has changed a lot.

Change in percentage since 2011 (in Ontario)
Conservative  40% (-4.4%)
NDP             30.0% (+4.4%)
Liberal          23.0% (-2.3%)
Green ¸           6.0% (+2.2%)

The only thing that is clear is that the Conservatives are down NDP is up and Liberals are just about where they have been since May. So even with the NDP most probably going up in this riding they don`t seem like they will win. Even if  Liberals lose support in the riding we can still win, because the Conservatives might lose more support, but in such a close contest having no Green Party candidate does help Liberals chances in the riding.

1 comment:

  1. She urges; But will they listen?

    I'd be very surprised if the courts order a by-election anyways.

    Perhaps if Borys didn't run then the NDP could win. And therein lies the problem. Liberals are far too arrogant to bow out of any gravy train.

    The Libs are in elections to govern. They have no interest in asking rhetorical questions in the parliament. A nationwide cooperation would by definition admit that they cannot win. It begs the question; Why exist at all? This would lead to the end of the party.


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