With Rob Portman, the senator from Ohio along with the many prominent Republicans like Dick Cheney, Meg Whitman and Laura Bush supporting gay marriage is it possible to see a GOP candidate in 2016 run supporting gay marriage.
In 2012 all the GOP candidates where opposed to same sex marriage. Most in fact supported a constitutional amendment prohibiting the marriage of anyone other than a man and a women. Only John Hutsman supported civil unions. And it should be noted that Ron Paul said that the government should get out of marriage and let everyone pretty much define it for themselves.
Currently most of the candidates that may run don't support marriage equality. John Hutsman who now supports marriage equality may be the only candidate in the 2016 republican primary to support same sex marriage. But the question shouldn't be if a pro same sex marriage candidate is possible, but whether the position is winnable.
Currently most republicans 61% according to current polls are against same sex marriage. But this is also generational, among republicans ages 18-44 46% support and oppose same sex marriage. While 45 and up oppose same sex marriage by a margin of 64%-25%. Considering big major donors of the Republican party come from an older generation it is fair to say a pro gay marriage GOP candidate may find it hard to find influential friends in this party.
The Republicans have only started to warm up to this issue and yes in three years more Republicans will probably change their minds. Especially with the supreme court ruling coming in June but also in the some 8 states that will have a vote on this issue in the next 2 years.
Anyways the 2016 GOP primaries and Caucuses should be interesting. A fight between the younger Republican generation and the older. The tug of war if you will. Santorum will most likely champion the cause for social conservative, but it will be interesting to see which major candidate will take his challenge. If any?
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children." A Liberal-supporting, environmentalist blog. We blog according to our opinions, not those of the party or government. Free speech must win and that's why we have this blog. The views of two Montrealers and a Libertarian.
Sunday, March 31, 2013
Pro Same Sex Marriage GOP Candidate.......Maybe?
Saturday, March 30, 2013
Labrador By-Election!
In the midst of scandal Peter Penashue resigned and is seeking re-election in Labrador. This by-election is perfectly placed to be a present for the next Liberal leader. Another seat for a party that lost so much in the last election would be a great present for the parties future leader.
The prospects look very promising. First the big boost is of course the scandals around Peter Penashue will most defiantly make him lose many votes. And in fact that is really all that is needed to elect a Liberal in the next election. Labrador only elected Peter by 78 votes. This riding has a long Liberal history. Since Newfoundland became a part of Canada in 1948 this riding has only elected a conservative twice. In 1968 and 2011. Every other election since 1948 this riding has elected a Liberal.
Added on to that, the Conservatives have committed practical political suicide in the east supporting drastic changes to Employment insurance. Even the Conservatives support for the seal hunt won`t do much good as the Liberals are also in favor of keeping the seal hunt going. The NDP will have some issue`s though conveying that message. With the Greens even deciding to step out of this election in favor of some sort of co-operation to unseat Peter Penashue (that the NDP refused to take part in) that frees up some 132 progressive votes from the last election, which most certainly will vote for either the Liberals or NDP.
Put all these together and it seems that the Conservatives will be even lucky to place second let alone first. The first place winner looking at the evidence will most likely be Yvonne Jones the Liberal candidate. If the Liberals win this by-election it will grow the Liberal caucus to 36, which is 2 more than the 2011 election results. We are the only major party which has grown in size since 2011. The Conservatives are down 2 so far at 164 and the NDP are 3 down now at 100.
The prospects look very promising. First the big boost is of course the scandals around Peter Penashue will most defiantly make him lose many votes. And in fact that is really all that is needed to elect a Liberal in the next election. Labrador only elected Peter by 78 votes. This riding has a long Liberal history. Since Newfoundland became a part of Canada in 1948 this riding has only elected a conservative twice. In 1968 and 2011. Every other election since 1948 this riding has elected a Liberal.
Added on to that, the Conservatives have committed practical political suicide in the east supporting drastic changes to Employment insurance. Even the Conservatives support for the seal hunt won`t do much good as the Liberals are also in favor of keeping the seal hunt going. The NDP will have some issue`s though conveying that message. With the Greens even deciding to step out of this election in favor of some sort of co-operation to unseat Peter Penashue (that the NDP refused to take part in) that frees up some 132 progressive votes from the last election, which most certainly will vote for either the Liberals or NDP.
Put all these together and it seems that the Conservatives will be even lucky to place second let alone first. The first place winner looking at the evidence will most likely be Yvonne Jones the Liberal candidate. If the Liberals win this by-election it will grow the Liberal caucus to 36, which is 2 more than the 2011 election results. We are the only major party which has grown in size since 2011. The Conservatives are down 2 so far at 164 and the NDP are 3 down now at 100.
Friday, March 29, 2013
Same Sex Marriage..... About Time!
This week the U.S supreme court has been hearing oral arguments for and against same sex marriage as well as the Defense Of Marriage Act (DOMA). The answers to these cases will come in at the end of June. Quite frankly I am hopeful, but know that the supreme court will probably not make a national consensus on this issue.
The Supreme court of the U.S unlike our own is very politically motivated. It is relatively safe to assume that their our 4 justices on both sides of bench for and against same sex marriage and Anthony Kennedy in the middle is left to decide. What I suspect will probably occur is that the Supreme court will strike down Prop 8 claiming it is unconstitutional. Therefore re-legalizing same sex marriage in the California, and California only. This unfortunately I don`t believe will be a Rov Vs Wade decision, where the entire country is effected by the ruling.
California if the supreme court strikes Prop 8 down will be the 10th state to legalize same sex marriage. Currently there is a push to legalize same sex marriage in Illinois, Hawaii, Ohio, Rhode Island, New Jersey and Delaware. As new polls show that a clear majority of Americans believe that we should let all people marry. Then Marriage equality will only be a matter of time. The supreme court could settle this problem once and for all, or continue this inevitable fight for marriage equality. If DOMA is repealed it will give the thousands of Gay and Lesbians couples already married in 9 states and DC all the rights of marriage.
In the meantime France, New Zealand and the U.K are putting this issue to bed. It`s only a matter of time... it`s only a matter of time.
The Supreme court of the U.S unlike our own is very politically motivated. It is relatively safe to assume that their our 4 justices on both sides of bench for and against same sex marriage and Anthony Kennedy in the middle is left to decide. What I suspect will probably occur is that the Supreme court will strike down Prop 8 claiming it is unconstitutional. Therefore re-legalizing same sex marriage in the California, and California only. This unfortunately I don`t believe will be a Rov Vs Wade decision, where the entire country is effected by the ruling.
California if the supreme court strikes Prop 8 down will be the 10th state to legalize same sex marriage. Currently there is a push to legalize same sex marriage in Illinois, Hawaii, Ohio, Rhode Island, New Jersey and Delaware. As new polls show that a clear majority of Americans believe that we should let all people marry. Then Marriage equality will only be a matter of time. The supreme court could settle this problem once and for all, or continue this inevitable fight for marriage equality. If DOMA is repealed it will give the thousands of Gay and Lesbians couples already married in 9 states and DC all the rights of marriage.
In the meantime France, New Zealand and the U.K are putting this issue to bed. It`s only a matter of time... it`s only a matter of time.
Friday, November 09, 2012
America Moves a Few Inches to the Left
For the most part the U.S political climate has remained the same. The White House resident is still a democrat, the senate is still controlled by democrats and the House is controlled by Republicans. But I think in all it is a win for left wing of the country, and shows to some extent the fact that America has at least in my mind moved little bit more towards the left of the political spectrum.
In the Presidential election Obama didn't win popular vote wise as much as he did in 2008. This of course doesn't prove that America has moved to the right, because we have to look at previous elections and look for a trend. The trend I see is that many former swing states have started to lean towards the democrats, and many former Republican states have started to become the new swing states.
Michigan and Pennsylvania have been called swing states for quite some time, but they haven't voted for a republican since 1988! The state of New Mexico was also called a swing state and even voted for Bush in 2004, but the Hispanic vote which is growing in New Mexico, and is increasingly voted Democrat ensured Obama would win New Mexico by a 10% margin (which rivals other more staunchly democratic states like Washington). The state of Virginia which before 2008 has voted Republican since 1964 has became increasingly a democratic state. The state of North Carolina before 2008 has voted Republican since 1976. In 2004 Bush won the state by more than 12%, and now Romney only wins by a mere 3%.
As it can be seen a Democrat candidate has an easier way to 270 electoral votes versus any generic Republican candidate, because many states have become increasingly democratic due the increasing minority demographics in the U.S which currently vote staunchly democrat and the Youth vote increasing involvement.
For example in the year 2000 Only 15% of voters were of the age 18-29 and by a margin of 13% they voted for Gore. In 2008 18% of voters were 18-29 and Obama carried it by more then 34%. In 2012 the portion increased again and is now 19% and they still vote by an overwhelming margin of 23% for the democrats.
As for minorities in 2000 80% of voters were white, in 2008 only 74% were white and in 2012 only 72% are white. The Republican party is only winning this demographic, and have improved there numbers among whites since 2000. Bush in 2000 got 54% of the white vote Romney got 59%. The Reason this landslide majority among white's doesn't easily propel someone to the presidency is because of the minority vote, which feel they are being pushed away by the Republicans.
Among African Americans the percentage has remained relatively constant with around 90% something of all African Americans voting Democratic, but the reason this is dangerous is because the African American voting population is increasing. From 9%-13% (between 2000 and 2012)
Among Hispanics there is a different story. They have also increased there share of the voting population from 7% -10% (between 200 and 2012), but they have also increasingly started to move towards the blue candidate. In 2004 44% of Hispanics voted for Bush, In 2008 only 32% and in 2012 27%. The same is true for the Asian population as well.
It can be seen that demographics of America's voting population has made dramatic changes to some states voting habits as the Republican party is increasingly becoming a party made up of primarily white people and seems to be pushing away the other minorities. If any Republican wishes to get elected president continually pushing away minorities and not reaching out will cause the demise of the Republican party.
In the Presidential election Obama didn't win popular vote wise as much as he did in 2008. This of course doesn't prove that America has moved to the right, because we have to look at previous elections and look for a trend. The trend I see is that many former swing states have started to lean towards the democrats, and many former Republican states have started to become the new swing states.
Michigan and Pennsylvania have been called swing states for quite some time, but they haven't voted for a republican since 1988! The state of New Mexico was also called a swing state and even voted for Bush in 2004, but the Hispanic vote which is growing in New Mexico, and is increasingly voted Democrat ensured Obama would win New Mexico by a 10% margin (which rivals other more staunchly democratic states like Washington). The state of Virginia which before 2008 has voted Republican since 1964 has became increasingly a democratic state. The state of North Carolina before 2008 has voted Republican since 1976. In 2004 Bush won the state by more than 12%, and now Romney only wins by a mere 3%.
As it can be seen a Democrat candidate has an easier way to 270 electoral votes versus any generic Republican candidate, because many states have become increasingly democratic due the increasing minority demographics in the U.S which currently vote staunchly democrat and the Youth vote increasing involvement.
For example in the year 2000 Only 15% of voters were of the age 18-29 and by a margin of 13% they voted for Gore. In 2008 18% of voters were 18-29 and Obama carried it by more then 34%. In 2012 the portion increased again and is now 19% and they still vote by an overwhelming margin of 23% for the democrats.
As for minorities in 2000 80% of voters were white, in 2008 only 74% were white and in 2012 only 72% are white. The Republican party is only winning this demographic, and have improved there numbers among whites since 2000. Bush in 2000 got 54% of the white vote Romney got 59%. The Reason this landslide majority among white's doesn't easily propel someone to the presidency is because of the minority vote, which feel they are being pushed away by the Republicans.
Among African Americans the percentage has remained relatively constant with around 90% something of all African Americans voting Democratic, but the reason this is dangerous is because the African American voting population is increasing. From 9%-13% (between 2000 and 2012)
Among Hispanics there is a different story. They have also increased there share of the voting population from 7% -10% (between 200 and 2012), but they have also increasingly started to move towards the blue candidate. In 2004 44% of Hispanics voted for Bush, In 2008 only 32% and in 2012 27%. The same is true for the Asian population as well.
It can be seen that demographics of America's voting population has made dramatic changes to some states voting habits as the Republican party is increasingly becoming a party made up of primarily white people and seems to be pushing away the other minorities. If any Republican wishes to get elected president continually pushing away minorities and not reaching out will cause the demise of the Republican party.
Monday, September 03, 2012
Last Second Projection!
The poll that get's the last say is Leger Marketing August 31st. The Poll shows a new development that seems to be supported by past polls. That the CAQ will have more votes then the Liberals, and the PQ will win a government. But votes don't translate into seats, and in fact I think Won't win more seats or votes come election night
While I say Francois Legault still won't win his party has shown that it can in fact hold it's 28%. Leger Marketing shows that CAQ support is even among older voters and middle age voters who tend to be more reliable , while it's support is low among young voters who tend to be less reliable. While the Liberals support is only high among voters older then 65 and below or average on all other age groups especially youth. The PQ on the other hand have gain some support among some middle age voters, but still is weak among retired or soon to retire voters. This tells us that the Liberals and the CAQ have some gains they can make on election day if there is low youth turnout.
Still 28% of voters can change their minds. This is bad news for the CAQ because among it's voters 37% said they could change their minds, while only 27% Liberal and a low 15% PQ. This plays to the advantage of the PLQ, because there lost votes didn't go to the PQ it went to the CAQ and on election day the most likely transfer of votes will be between CAQ voters to PLQ. But the PQ can also make gains as 34% of Quebec Solidaire voters and Option National two other separatist parties also could change there minds.
Pauline Marois has been leading in the polls since the beginning with the exception of that one fringe poll showing Charest would win. Now 53% of Quebec thinks she will form the next government. But 76% think that it will be a minority, but if the polls are right it's not out of the question that the PQ will get a majority. 308.com actually has Marois in Majority territory, but a very small one.
I will post my complete projection at 1pm. In case any new poll comes out.
While I say Francois Legault still won't win his party has shown that it can in fact hold it's 28%. Leger Marketing shows that CAQ support is even among older voters and middle age voters who tend to be more reliable , while it's support is low among young voters who tend to be less reliable. While the Liberals support is only high among voters older then 65 and below or average on all other age groups especially youth. The PQ on the other hand have gain some support among some middle age voters, but still is weak among retired or soon to retire voters. This tells us that the Liberals and the CAQ have some gains they can make on election day if there is low youth turnout.
Still 28% of voters can change their minds. This is bad news for the CAQ because among it's voters 37% said they could change their minds, while only 27% Liberal and a low 15% PQ. This plays to the advantage of the PLQ, because there lost votes didn't go to the PQ it went to the CAQ and on election day the most likely transfer of votes will be between CAQ voters to PLQ. But the PQ can also make gains as 34% of Quebec Solidaire voters and Option National two other separatist parties also could change there minds.
Pauline Marois has been leading in the polls since the beginning with the exception of that one fringe poll showing Charest would win. Now 53% of Quebec thinks she will form the next government. But 76% think that it will be a minority, but if the polls are right it's not out of the question that the PQ will get a majority. 308.com actually has Marois in Majority territory, but a very small one.
I will post my complete projection at 1pm. In case any new poll comes out.
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