Monday, August 20, 2012

Premier Legault? Not Happening !!!!!!!!!

With current polls putting Francois Legault a close third to the other two major political parties many are wondering whether Francois Leagualt will be able to make it all the way and win government in this election. There are many reasons to suspect that the CAQ will make major gains in this election and that they will no doubt out do the ADQ, but when it comes to the question of whether they can achieve a government, but I think they won't.

First it's very easy to look at the polls and say that the surge in CAQ support may give Legault the support he needs to form a government. A poll done on August 16th have the CAQ at 27%, QLP at 28% and the PQ at 33%. This poll suggest that the CAQ can make this a three way race, but if we look deaper into the numbers you will know why the CAQ won't end up victories September 4th.

In the Leger Marketing poll they asked people who said they would vote one way if their choice was final or if they could change there minds on election day. The PQ and the PLQ both scored high among there supporters. With 71% of PQ supporters and 64% of PLQ supporters saying that there choice was final. The CAQ  on the other hand has half it's supporters saying they could change their minds on election day. This shows that the CAQ support is weak and that his party's support is the most liquid of the three major parties.  Meaning he has most to lose and the least to gain as  Quebec Liberal supporter and PQ supporters seem to have more then CAQ supporters made up their minds.

Also when asked who in the people's opinion will form the next government the CAQ placed third with 15%, behind the PLQ and PQ with 26% and 37% respectfully. Which shows that a large number of CAQ supporters don't see the CAQ getting elected which means that the party itself isn't sure it will win even though their polling like they could.

Even with all this the CAQ have a lot going for them when asked who can bring better access to health care, who can stop corruption and who can balance the budget Francois Legault wins beating the other leaders by a large margin. But when it comes to election night the CAQ won't reach where they are in the polls as there voters are less sure about the party. When it comes to election night CAQ voters will be more likely to stay at home or change there minds and vote for someone else then PQ or PLQ voters.

See The Poll Here

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