Ekos Seat Projection

Ekos has come out with some projections on there lasted poll that showed the Liberals 7% behind the conservatives who are getting 35%. The projection have the Liberals at 86 a little higher than last time. The Conservatives at 139 even more away from majority. The NDP at 2006 levels 29 , and the Bloc near the hieghest at 53. No seats projected for the Green party. The problem with these projection are were the party is getting the seats from. Apparently the Liberals are going to get 6 seats in Alberta. 6 seats I wish the Liberals can get, but this is only if the Liberals get around 32% of the vote. Although I think we will do better in Alberta this time then we did last time, because of the Liberals "rural Canada matters" and no support forthe carbon tax anymore. But the last poll we were hovering around 24%. So although I hope for maybe getting 1 or 2 seats in Alberta I think 6 is very far away.  Anotrher Questionable thing with this projection is thta the Greens have not 1 seat. Yet in the poll they have 20% of the B.C vote.  just under the 21% the NDP have. But yet again in our democracy you can theoretically get 2nd place in every riding win the vote nationally and still not have one seat. Other than that It looks like another Tory minority.

New EKOS Poll

A new EKOS poll does not really show anything. The Canadian political landscape has been locked for a while now. Not one party has changed support substantially over the last year. The Tories maintain their usual seven point lead while the Liberals trail at 27%. This would allow for another Conservative minority government, albeit weakened. The Liberals would gain 20 seats. Even though the Liberals and Conservatives have put out ads, I do not think there is going to be an election in 2011. All it takes is one party to support the government and I think the NDP will. Some parties may not want an election, but Canadians do. 53% of EKOS respondents say they want a general election to happen in 2011.

[Ottawa – January 27, 2011] – The frozen political landscape appears almost totally inert. The Conservatives enjoy a mildly comfortable 7.5 point lead, but everything looks more or less as it did two weeks ago. These results are somewhat better for the Conservatives than in the late fall, but the outcome of an apparently looming election is very much in doubt. The public as forecasters say they lean to a Conservative result of the minority variety.

Read the full report. 

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• Tories hold lead over Liberals: poll (cbc.ca)

New EKOS Poll

A new EKOS poll has come out confirming the same thing we have been seeing for the past few months: Conservatives with 33%, Liberals with 29%. This would probably give the Conservatives a narrow minority. Only 39.9% of people felt the government was going in the right direction. This poll continues to show the deadlock in Canadian politics. With five major parties, I think the votes will be split enough to ensure that there won't be majority governments for a long time. An interesting part of the poll showed that if only youths under 25 voted, the Green Party would get a whopping 34.8% support! The Liberals are in second place with 20.9%. The problem is youths don't vote in great numbers. It will only be a good thing if progressives can get young people to vote. This will mean more trouble for the Conservatives.

Read more at CBC.
EKOS Dec. 9 2010

New Ekos Poll

A new Ekos poll confirms my belief. We're going to be in a minority situation for a long time. Both the Liberals and Conservatives are below 30% of the popular vote with the Tories having a 0.8% lead over the Liberals' 28.6%. Threehundredeight.com gives the Liberals 103 seats and the Conservatives 115 seats. However, it also says that this might be a rogue poll. I think, nevertheless, that we can conclude that there won't be majority governments for a long time.EKOS poll - Nov. 11, 2010

Related articles

• Parties deadlocked in new Canadian opinion poll (reuters.com)
• NDP makes gains amid 'startling' Tory-Liberal deadlock (theglobeandmail.com)