Ontario Could Stay Red.

threehundredeight.com has a new projection in the province of Ontario. It predicts that Ontario will be an even split. 44 Liberals, 44 Tories and 19 NDP. Which means a split government that would probably give Mcguinty another term in office. It seems Hudack is moving down the polls, and Liberals are back and fighting for a government. This trend has been going on for quite a while, and if continued can give the Liberals another majority government. some polls even have the Liberals way ahead of the Conservatives. It seems the Liberals right now are on the up swing, and I hope to see Ontario stay in the red column in Ontario. 

The poll also found that only 45 per cent of respondents believed McGuinty had much of a plan for the province's future.

"While I'm not prepared to say I'm absolutely certain that it's a 10-point Liberal advantage, I feel pretty confident that what we're picking up is some narrowing of the race," Anderson said.

Hudak found himself defending Randy Hillier, a high-profile Tory candidate who has been embroiled in a long-running tax dispute with Canada Revenue Agency.

Ontario Libs With a Chance

In the Ontario election which is due this fall. Hudak looked like an easy winner, but i say don't rule out the Liberals in Ontario so fast. Even with the last election in May where Liberals faced a devastating defeat in the province getting third place. Recent polls show that the premier of Ontario looks like he may have a chance to win the province.

The recent poll shows the Liberal party is just 4.5% behind the Conservative, but on the issue of trust surprisingly the Liberals are ahead. Ontario trust Mcguinty more than they trust any other party leader in the province. On who would be the best premier Ontario still slightly prefer Mcguinty over Hudack, but this is within the margin of error. This still proves that the Liberals aren't out just yet on this race.

When asked about the Liberals thrust worthy on the issue's Liberals in Ontario lead in Health care by 6%, Economy 3%, Taxes 1%, Education 7%, Environment 5%, Electricity 2%. Now many of these leads are within the margin of error, but this proves again that the Liberals have a chance if they are currently being competitive on the issue's and thrust worthy. The polls show that the lead the Conservative have is within the margin of error, and Liberals in the province still have a chance.

see the polls here and here

The Liberals are UP!

A new poll shows that the Conservatives are at 36.2, The Liberals at 27.0% and the NDP at 26.8%. We are now just over a month past the last election the NDP and the Liberals are now in a tie. And the Conservatives are now at their minority levels. Not that this matters for an election, but it's good to see our poll numbers be above the teens. We went up in every province in the country. In the Atlantic we are now just 5% behind the conservatives, but comfortably ahead  the NDP with a 12 point lead. In Quebec the NDP are still in the lead with 34%, but have declined 8% since their election day results. The Bloc are below their election lows, but have risen to 17%, but below the Conservatives and Liberals at low twenties. The NDP honeymoon in Quebec has declined, but  it isn't over yet. In Ontario we are about 7% higher than the NDP with 32%. That's great considering on election night we lost 2nd place to the NDP by just 0.3%. Harper's Conservatives are down from their election highs of 44% to now 38%. In the Prairies provinces we got 10% on election night, and now we are higher than the NDP slightly with 22% versus 20%. The Conservatives dropped over double digits to now 50% still dominating the prairies provinces. In BC we went from our 20% gap between the us and NDP to our now 5% gap. Which considering the margin of error can be considered a tie. We aren't winning yet and we still have 4 years to go, but it's nice to see our party doing better than we were doing last month. 

In June, the Liberals were at 22.3 per cent support nationally but have seen their support increase in every region of the country over the past month.

The pollster notes Liberal numbers always improve when they don’t have a permanent leader. For example, their numbers increased when Paul Martin announced his departure and again when Stephane Dion resigned.

  Read more here

Ekos Seat Projection

Ekos has come out with some projections on there lasted poll that showed the Liberals 7% behind the conservatives who are getting 35%. The projection have the Liberals at 86 a little higher than last time. The Conservatives at 139 even more away from majority. The NDP at 2006 levels 29 , and the Bloc near the hieghest at 53. No seats projected for the Green party. The problem with these projection are were the party is getting the seats from. Apparently the Liberals are going to get 6 seats in Alberta. 6 seats I wish the Liberals can get, but this is only if the Liberals get around 32% of the vote. Although I think we will do better in Alberta this time then we did last time, because of the Liberals "rural Canada matters" and no support forthe carbon tax anymore. But the last poll we were hovering around 24%. So although I hope for maybe getting 1 or 2 seats in Alberta I think 6 is very far away.  Anotrher Questionable thing with this projection is thta the Greens have not 1 seat. Yet in the poll they have 20% of the B.C vote.  just under the 21% the NDP have. But yet again in our democracy you can theoretically get 2nd place in every riding win the vote nationally and still not have one seat. Other than that It looks like another Tory minority.

If Only Youth Voted...

Canada's Parliament would be completely different, if only youth voted. People aged 18-24 would elect a Liberal minority government with 104 seats and 23% support. However, the surprise starts now. The Conservatives would be reduced to 46 seats and 18% support. The Bloc would be the Official Opposition with 60 seats and a solid 40% in Quebec with the Liberals second, hovering near 20%. THe NDP would get 18% and 53 seats, and the Green Party would get 22% of the popular vote and 43 seats! This means that the progressive parties need to get the youth to vote in bigger numbers. Last election, only 37% of youth eligible to vote exercised their power. It is essential for the Canadian left to persuade these people, and a good source of support to vote for them. This would completely rupture the Conservatives, who in turn would lose a lot of support. Now imagine, 43 Conservative seats. We would become a role model in the world once again.

Canada’s youth would elect a Liberal minority government, with a substantial increase in representation for the New Democrats, Bloc Québécois, and Greens, according to projections based on recent polls of Canadians between the ages of 18 and 24. The Conservative Party would be severely reduced, virtually wiped out east of Manitoba.

Read more at the Globe and Mail.

Harris Decima Seat Projection

The threehundredeight.com seat projection for the newest Harris-Decima poll supports the fact that us Liberals are stronger. 30% support would give us 107 seats compared to 126 for the Conservatives. This is not the first poll that suggests this kind of seat gain. An Ekos poll, an Ipos-Reid poll, Environics, Nanos, all of them support the same conclusion, more or less. The Liberals are gaining support and seats at the expense of the NDP and Conservatives.

New Poll

A new EKOS poll shows the Conservatives having a 0.3% lead over the Liberals. This is good news. Now, there is two polls that confirm that the two parties are tied in public support. Disappointingly, the Liberals don't break the 30% mark in this poll. This poll would give the Liberals a minority government with 113 seats. This is good progress, but we need more support nonetheless. Michael Ignatieff has improved the views of himself during the summer. He needs to continue doing that. He recognises that and has extended the tour into the fall. He is not a dumb man.
EKOS poll - Sept. 2, 2010

Read more at CBC.

Four Point Lead!

The Liberals have taken a four point lead on the Conservatives according to a new Environics poll. This is the first poll which has shown the Liberals having a substantial lead over the Conservatives. These numbers do not fall within the margin of error and can be taken as a good sign for us. I've stopped counting now how many polls show the Libs up in percentage. All the other polls show a tie or a Liberal lead. Things are looking good for us. Too bad for Stephen Harper.