Tied Again

A New Harris-Decima poll shows the Liberals and Conservatives at a basic tie, at 29% and 31% respectively. This does not really shed much light on the current situation as different pollsters have been showing different levels. Some have the Conservatives with a huge lead and others have the Libs and Cons at a basic tie. There is one thing in common between all these polls: the Liberals are below thirty perent. There should be more work on the behalf of the Liberals to regain support. However, no polls have actually put Stephen Harper in firm majority territory. There will be no majorities for a long time. The rise of the NDP, Bloc and Green Party will continue to make it very hard for anyone to get a majority. I see minorities continuing in Canada for a long, long time. I also do not think that the next election will be any time soon. Neither Harper nor Ignatieff will gain in the race.

OTTAWA—The Conservatives and Liberals appear to be ending the year the same way they started it — in a dead heat.

A new poll by The Canadian Press Harris-Decima suggests the Tories have the support of 31 per cent of Canadians, statistically tied with the Liberals at 29 per cent.

Read more at the Toronto Star.

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• Momentum slings Tories into lead (calgaryherald.com)

Harris Decima Seat Projection

The threehundredeight.com seat projection for the newest Harris-Decima poll supports the fact that us Liberals are stronger. 30% support would give us 107 seats compared to 126 for the Conservatives. This is not the first poll that suggests this kind of seat gain. An Ekos poll, an Ipos-Reid poll, Environics, Nanos, all of them support the same conclusion, more or less. The Liberals are gaining support and seats at the expense of the NDP and Conservatives.

NDP Loses in New Poll

A Harris-Decima poll suggests that the Liberals and Conservatives are basically at a tie, with 30% and 33% respectively, while the NDP had it's worst showing of the year with 14% support. This is obviously because Jack Layton refused to whip the vote on the long gun registry. This earned him a lot of dissatisfaction in urban areas. Anyway, it's good news for us, the Liberal Party of Canada, with a repeated strong showing in recent polls. It also seems like this momentum could continue until who knows when. The Liberal Party is up and ready to go! ThreeHundredEight.com will probably have a projection of seats later today. I will post them if I can.

A new poll suggests support for the NDP has dropped to its lowest level this year amid internal divisions over the long-gun registry.

The Harris-Decima survey conducted for The Canadian Press put the Conservatives at 33 per cent support, three points ahead of the Liberals.

The NDP trailed well behind at just 14 per cent – down six points since April and only three points ahead of the Green party.

Read more at the Globe and Mail.

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• New Democrat MP Peter Stoffer says he will vote against bill to kill long-gun registry (calgaryherald.com)
• Who'll take the most gun-registry shrapnel? (theglobeandmail.com)

New Poll

A new EKOS poll shows the Conservatives having a 0.3% lead over the Liberals. This is good news. Now, there is two polls that confirm that the two parties are tied in public support. Disappointingly, the Liberals don't break the 30% mark in this poll. This poll would give the Liberals a minority government with 113 seats. This is good progress, but we need more support nonetheless. Michael Ignatieff has improved the views of himself during the summer. He needs to continue doing that. He recognises that and has extended the tour into the fall. He is not a dumb man.
EKOS poll - Sept. 2, 2010

Read more at CBC.

No clear national winner, but someone defenietly won.

The Australian election although showing a hung parliament that will defiantly need support from smaller parties to have a a strong government. The only winner now is the Green Party. Yeah Australia has voted in Green MP to there government, and if things go good with Labor Australia could have a carbon tax. Election still a little close latest results are spread a little all around, but so far Labor has 71 Liberal has 71 Green 1 Independents 3. 4 seats still not yet given . So at the end it could go either way. I hope to see a Labor minority government with the Green party and independents helping. Australia just like the U.K has now a member in parliament that supports environmental policies, because a government with enough Green party seats to make sure that the environment is seen when legislation occurs is the best that can happen. Now if we can only have a green party member in Canada.

Conservatives go to 4 year low.

A new Ekos poll shows tie between the Conservatives and the Liberals. The Conservative got 29.7% in the poll. This is a four year low they have not been this low in support since 2006. The Liberals are not really winning either they have 28.5%, the NDP 17.4%, Bloc 10.4% and the Green 11.1%. The poll shows that the Liberal tour across Canada seems to be working against maybe some critics. The Liberals the Bloc, and the green party are all doing better than there 2008 result. The NDP and Conservatives are both doing worse than the 2008 result. I hope over the course of the summer the Liberals crack the 30% mark and grow further on.
http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_august_5.pdf

New Poll

The Tories are down again! This time in a new Harris-Decima poll. The Liberals at 27% and the Cons at 29% are virtually tied! Last time this happened, in an EKOS poll a short while ago, the Tories started attacking Frank Graves, head of EKOS. That is the normal Tory thing to do. When diplomat Richard Colvin accused the government of ignoring the fact that Afghan detainees were tortured, the Conservatives started personal attacks on him. Same thing is happening now. I quote from Dr Roy's Thoughts:

frank graves has revealed of late that he is indeed a partisan liberal. Why should anyone pay any intention to this openly liberal pollster. I question the accuracy and bias of ekos. If elos wanrs to regain any degree of believability, they should fire frank graves.

So, we should ignore him because he supports the Liberals. I don't get this logic. If Frank Graves really was biased, would he be presenting false information to the Liberals (poll stats)? Now, a Harris-Decima poll shows that EKOS was right. The Cons personal attacks won't work. The propaganda from the Blogging Tories won't sway us.

The full results of the poll can be found here.

Back Down You Go

According to a new EKOS poll, the Tories are back down at 31.4% support and the Liberals back up at 29% support. Basically, the Liberals are more or less tied with the Conservatives. Good news for us. Let's plough straight through Stephen Harper's thin support. He can lose it any time (besides Alberta) as demonstrated during his prorogation. Two scandals at the same time now are attacking the Tories' support: the Guergis-Jaffer scandal and the Afghan detainee scandal. Libs are making gains in Ontario and mostly stealing away form the Cons. This is only good news for us.

In fact, Mr. Graves and his team are calling it more than that – they say the Tories have been “Guergisized!”“The resignation and controversy around Helena Guergis and her husband seems to have jumpstarted a moribund electorate in a way that ideas and debate could not,” he says.

Read about it at the Globe and Mail or CBC. Read the full results of the poll here.

New Poll

A new Ekos poll puts the Liberals at 29% and the Tories at 31%. While other polls have shown that the Liberals are ahead, this one puts us behind. However, this is also quite good. There was a time in September, October where the Conservatives were eying their majority. Now, it's changed. What will happen, no one knows. But one thing's for sure, the Liberals are regaining their strength. Even though the Tories have more money, we are regaining the support of Canadians and that's what matters.

The two main parties are still statistically tied. The NDP is at 16.5 per cent, followed by the Green Party at 11.8 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois with 8.8 per cent.

And what EKOS’s pollster Frank Graves sees in all of this is the Tories stuck firmly at “a humble 31.” Even a “couple of home-turf gold medals” can’t push a few more votes their way, it seems

Earlier this fall, the Conservatives enjoyed a 10-point lead over the Liberals and were knocking at the door of a majority government. The landscape shifted dramatically after Mr. Harper’s decision to prorogue Parliament.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/bureau-blog/tories-and-liberals-mired-in-polling-gridlock/article1472431/