Rick Perry Surges

                In a new poll of Republicans in the U.S Rick Perry is ahead. This isn't completely unexpected, but the margin he leads compared to the rest of the candidates is something to look at. Even before Perry was officially "in the race". He was polling considerably well for someone who wasn't running yet (13%). Now a poll has Perry at 27% of voters and Mitt Romney at 14%. All the other candidates are around 6% like Bachman, Paul and Gingrich. Sarah Palin who no one knows if she is running is in 3rd place with 10% beating more established candidates that I have just mentioned.

               This poll only deals with the nation as a whole, but that doesn't matter much. What matters is how the first four states vote. Let's look at Iowa a new poll came out a week a ago showed that Iowa is getting real tight. Perry is leading at 24%, but Bachman is at 22% and  Romney is at 19%. This means that if let's say Bachman wins Iowa then Perry is the loser no matter what the national polls say, because if you are the candidate that wins no early states you aren't seen as a viable candidate and money dry's up. So if Perry loses Iowa where can he look for a win.

              The next state is New Hampshire just after Perry became a candidate Perry got a solid second place showing with 18% and Mitt Romney the King Maker of New England is at 36% and even if Perry props his numbers a little in this state it looks like New Hampshire will be for now solid for Romney.  In Nevada another early state has no new poll that came out after Perry announcement, but I will go on the assumption that Romney is the best liked person in the state just looking back to his 2008 results.

             So it seems that Romney still for now has a hold on New Hampshire and Nevada for now. So what about South Carolina.  A new poll last week showed that Perry is at 1st place 11% ahead of Romney's 20%  and Bachman a distant 3rd with 14%.

            So Perry is leading in the polls nationally, but if he doesn't grab at least one of the early states then he isn't viable. For Now Perry is very viable with his South Carolina support and Iowa, and even if he grabs both if Romney grabs Nevada and New Hampshire then the race will be now where near over. So Perry is leading, but if he doesn't lock those early states especially Iowa then he may have a fight to the end to win.