Saturday, December 18, 2010

Bad News From EKOS

Polls have been wacky in the past few weeks. This one adds to the different results, with both the Liberals and Conservatives down. It's even worse news for the Liberals though, because support is now at 26%, similar to the 2008 election. Conservatives are at 32%, not a very good showing either. This loss for both major parties gives more to the Bloc, NDP and Green parties. According to, the Conservatives would get 130 seats, Liberals 89, Bloc 55, NDP 34. No one would really gain anything worthwhile except the Bloc. Parties will probably not want an election for some months and neither do the voters. It's very possible there could be an election in 2011, but also very possible in 2012. I will be going with the latter as all polls show no one really would want an election. But all this is speculation.
His end-of-the-year survey, released Thursday night, has the Tories with 32 per cent support. The Liberals are at 26.5 per cent compared to 17.1 per cent for the NDP, 10.9 per cent for the Greens and 10.6 per cent for the Bloc Quebecois.
Read more at the Globe and Mail. 
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  1. An election will happen somehow this spring. It kinda has to, even if the results and seat counts remain more or less the same. It's time for leadership shake up and only an election can do this. That said, I would rather it happen if/while Harper is not teetering in majority territory and make no mistake, he is. Sorry, I don't really put much stock in EKOS. Nanos is more reliable.

    Most Liberal supporters want Iggy gone. Furthermore, I think even Iggy wants to resolve his future, once and for all, hence, why he seems keen for an election. He's in his mid-60s and one can't really blame him at this stage in his life. He knows he'll have to leave if his party loses the next election and I think he'll probably leave voluntarily. The party needs, yet again, a new leader. And this time, they better choose wisely, although, if Harper gets his majority, it won't matter, now will it?? Just remember his 2009 by-election placards in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve "de l'action; pas d'election". Pretty ominous.

    I also think Duceppe may want an election sooner as well. He's been busy resurrecting sovereignty here and seems to be putting his ducks in a row. We can be assured that the Bloc will take Quebec as long as Duceppe is leading the party, not so sure under someone else.

    Despite the win in Kamouraska-Temiscouata, Marois's leadership of the PQ is under the gun and I really doubt she'll survive that confidance vote amongst PQ delegates come April 15, at which time, a new leader will have to come in. Duceppe may well want to throw his hat into that ring. As leader of PQ and potentially, premier in a few years, he can do far more to further the sovereignty movement than being in Ottawa.

    Layton, well, his situation could be best described by the following lyrics of Janis Joplin's "Me & Bobby McGee" 'Freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose'.

  2. Its kinda sad that we wasted all these years with Ignatieff. Oh well.

  3. The actual polling results do not matter so much as the momentum during an election campaign. I do think that Harper will pull the parliamentary plug and ask the GG to call an election (which he'll get).


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