Monday, December 27, 2010
No Majority for Years to Come.
With there being now three consecutive minority Government and that there are now expected to have another minority government if an election would be held now some might be thinking when a majority might come along. Well the last majority we had was in the 2000 election. The problem is that in that election the Liberals got 40%, but that even today will not be enough. In that election there was still a divide in the right wing vote between the PC and the CA. Which split the right wing vote enough to allow a majority government. This is the only reason the Liberals I believe got a majority three times in a row. Now a new problem also emerged that made even getting 40% not allow you to have a Majority. The problem is the Bloc Quebecois. They keep grabbing the majority of the seats away from the other parties. The Conservatives couldn't get the 12 something seats in the last election to get the majority. The Liberals before the Bloc and before Mulroney dominated the province now they can't get those seats again. The NDP is the last addition to this recipe that won't allow a majority. With there new found growth they keep some rural seats away from the conservatives while taking some urban seats away from the Liberals. How then will anyone get a majority.Well besides a coalition or a merger the other solution is to have a new more popular leader on either side's. Either of these things are very unlike;y, but will probably happen after some odd number of years of gridlock and talks of coalition all around years of minority Governments. There is still hope that if the NDP get lower were they were a few weeks ago at 12% and with the Conservatives hitting 40% again the conservatives might be able to squeeze out a majority that will be very weak and unstable. This shows that for years to come unless a drastic events happen no majority will come for years.