Monday, December 27, 2010

No Majority for Years to Come.

With there being now three consecutive minority Government and that there are now expected to have another minority government if an election would be held now some might be thinking when a majority might come along. Well the last majority we had was in the 2000 election. The problem is that in that election the Liberals got 40%, but that even today will not be enough. In that election there was still a divide in the right wing vote between the PC and the CA. Which split the right wing vote enough to allow a majority government. This is the only reason the Liberals I believe got a majority three times in a row. Now a new problem also emerged that made even getting 40% not allow you to have a Majority. The problem is the Bloc Quebecois. They keep grabbing the majority of the seats away from the other parties. The Conservatives couldn't get the 12 something seats in the last election to get the majority. The Liberals before the Bloc and before Mulroney dominated the province now they can't get those seats again. The NDP is the last addition to this recipe that won't allow a majority. With there new found growth they keep some rural seats away from the conservatives while taking some urban seats away from the Liberals. How then will anyone get a majority.Well besides a coalition or a merger the other solution is to have a new more popular leader on either side's. Either of these things are very unlike;y, but will probably happen after some odd number of years of gridlock and talks of coalition all around years of minority Governments. There is still hope that if the NDP get lower were they were a few weeks ago at 12% and with the Conservatives hitting 40% again the conservatives might be able to squeeze out a majority that will be very weak and unstable. This shows that for years to come unless a drastic events happen no majority will come for years.

6 comments:

  1. Vanillaman,

    I agree with you 100%.

    http://thwapschoolyard.blogspot.com/search?q=coalition

    http://thwapschoolyard.blogspot.com/2010/06/prog-blog-liberals-dont-like-coalition.html

    It was certainly the case that right-wing vote-splitting is what gave Chretien his three majorities and that was what hid the power of the BQ to destroy the Liberal Party's electoral prowess. All over 905 country, marginal ridings went to the Liberals as the CRAP and PC parties negated each other.

    I've reconciled myself to the reality that a coalition between the Liberals and the NDP is necessary, especially if we all want to avoid the brinkmanship of the last 4 years.

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  2. Wishful thinking on your part. I think the Harpercons will get their majority this election. After checking the mood of many of the progressive bloggers and people on Twitter, it seems that their hatred for Iggy is stronger than their hatred for Harper, and would rather entertain a Harper majority and see Iggy go. So, many, of course, will either stay home or not hold their noses.

    Plus, as Craig Oliver mentioned yesterday, the election campaign will be framed simply by Harper, "Do you want a stable Conservative majority, or an unstable coalition who will wrect the economy?" Jane and Joe Six Pack and Tim Horton's will swallow that kool-aid.

    If I were a betting woman, I'd bet a week's paychecque on that one.

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  3. Simple answer to that strategy: It's the harpercons who create instability by refusing to work with the other parties.

    A solid centre-left coalition would prove more stable and, less injurious to the dignity of the Liberal Party who won't have to slink around in the halls of Parliament Hill when important bills come up for third reading.

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  4. While I would support a working Liberal-NDP coalition after an election, I would find it highly risky if the Liberals and NDP formed some informal coalition before and during an election. When coalitions are formed before an election, 1 + 1 does not always equal 2. If the Liberals and NDP united, some of their supporters could stay home, while others could actually support the Conservatives. Using the UBC Election Forecaster, if 70% of Liberal and NDP supporters voted for a coalition, 15% stayed home, and the other 15% voting for the Conservatives, then Harper could get his majority government with 180 seats for the Conservatives and 76 for the Liberal-NDP coalition.

    I will agree with CK that Harper will be better able to frame the election campaign than Ignatieff. Layton's NDP will use the usual "Vote for the NDP. We support aboriginals, the poor, women, immigrants, the LGBT community, the disabled-abled, animals, and the environment. Please vote for the NDP because we are not the Green Party. We know that poor Timbit Canadians support the Conservatives. We know that Timbit Canadians are getting fat. Therefore, we propose an environmental Timbit sales income redistribution plan where working families will receive social services support through the sales income redistribution plan."

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  5. I don't see the NDP getting chummy with the Liberals at any time soon. In fact, it appears to be more to their advantage attacking the Liberals and actually being more deferential (spelling?) with the Harpercons
    http://www.walrusmagazine.com/articles/2006.05-politics-jack-layton-ndp-fake-left-go-right/

    The above was written shortly after the 2006 election when Harper first took office, but it's relevent reading around any election time, at least, for the time being.

    I don't even see the NDP campaigning for the downtrodden and the sick as much as Liberal slamming. In fact, the latter will take over their campaign agenda.

    Both the Liberals and the NDP will be doing their best to tear apart Harper's evul coalition prophecies by slamming each other.

    Let's also remember the NDP and the Bloc were perfectly willing to go to bed with Harper in 2004 to bring down Paul Martin.

    http://mikewatkins.ca/2008/11/30/conservative-spin-on-coalition/

    Who's to say something similar couldn't happen again?

    Chantal Hebert (and more recently, Jim Travers on Question Period had asked about this to Nik Nanos on Question Period) had said that Gilles Duceppe may even help facilitate a Harpercon majority as that would be the circumstance that would favour a "yes" win in the next referendum for Quebec sovereignty and I would tend to agree with that.

    Greens, as usual, will get nowhere. They're simply a one trick pony and they can't even seem to get that trick right.

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  6. The Greens get more votes than the BQ. It's not a question of performing a trick but of being unable to overcome the barriers of our antiquated electoral system.

    I'm not saying that the Liberals and the NDP necessarily have to start holding hands. By all means, campaign against each other. Try to convince Canadian voters that your party is the better choice.

    But at the end of the day, the NDP isn't going to sacrifice itself for the Liberal Party and the Ignatieff Liberals aren't going to get more seats than harper without Quebec.

    harper has disgraced this country and demonstrated serial contempt for our system of government and the rule of law. An anti-harper coalition is inevitable and necessary.

    When the smoke clears after the next election, and we have another harpercon minority, the opposition should join forces and break him.

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