Monday, February 14, 2011

The NDP will Fold

The vote on the budget is coming up in March. We seem to be heading on a collision course as the Conservatives refuse to repeal the tax cuts. None of the other parties want to continue the corporate tax cuts as they are wasteful spending when we have a deficit. I have compiled the ways Conservatives could avoid being brought down. 
  1. The Tories change the budget so that the corporate tax rates do not get any lower. But, this is very unlikely because a few ministers have mentioned that they are not willing to discuss on this issue.
  2. The Conservatives cave in to the Bloc's demands. They are demanding $5 billion in new transfers to Quebec in compensation for harmonizing its sales tax among other things. These demands are completely unreasonable and it does not take a genius to see why Harper will not strike a deal with the Bloc.
  3. The Liberals vote for the budget. This is not likely as the Liberals and Michael Ignatieff have mentioned many times that corporate tax cuts must not be continued.
  4. The NDP folds. This is the most likely scenario as the NDP has much to lose in an election. Even if it is showing off its new "war room," the NDP is just a few seats shy of the record set by Ed Broadbent. In the next general election, the NDP has the potential to lose a significant portion of its seats and it would probably be smart for them to put it off until later.
In summary, the Tories will not change the budget, the Liberals will vote against the budget, the Bloc's demands will not be met and the NDP will make some excuse for why they will be voting to support Harper.
ST. HYACINTHE, Que. — Prime Minister Stephen Harper has to make a choice: cash for Quebec or an election, says Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe. 
“I am now challenging Stephen Harper to respond to Quebec’s expectations,” a pumped Duceppe said Sunday in a speech closing a party general council meeting. “We are asking for simple fairness, elementary justice.
Read more at the Ottawa Citizen.


  1. You better hope like hell that the NDP supports it, because if they don't then the Liberals are screwed.

  2. Anon@8:18 - How exactly are the Libs 'screwed' when every poll projection (even the latest Ekos) shows them gaining seats over 2008? (At the expense of the NDP in that last one)

    Why do you think all of a sudden they grew a pair? It's because they know they have more chance to gain than lose in a spring election.

  3. Canadians will cast a ballot after a 36 day campaign. If the Liberals gain 5 seats, do they believe Ignatieff will keep his job?

    If Canadians send another minority parliament will Ignatieff form a coalition with the NDP and Bloc support?

    The ballot question is already being framed. A stable government or one led by Ignatieff Liberal dependent upon the Separatist Duceppe.

    Canadians won't leave any room for doubt on their thoughts about the coalition from the left.

    I look forward to the left demands during the campaign when and if it is called. I don't think we will have it until 2011.

    I am not impressed with Ignatieff fending off the experienced Layton for title of defender of the most vulnerable.

  4. A few Libs could have a case of the Parliamentarian flu thus allowing passage of the budget in a squeaker.

    Ontario is in a lot of trouble. I don't think higher taxes for corporations will sit well with a lot of people there. They need jobs and lots of them. I am betting that some Lib. MPs there are privately concerned about supporting these tax increases.

  5. Greaves comments nitwitstanding, the attack ads and the polls are being worked together to prop up a lame duck Prime Messy Stephen Honsi.

  6. @Anon8:48, any possible gains the Liberals get from the NDP will be offset by their losses to the Tories. With that scenario playing out, the Tory vote will end up being more efficient; they won't need a benchmark of 40% to get a majority - they will get it the same way at 37%-38% that Chretien got his.

  7. Canadian Sense,

    If the Liberals gain 5 seats, there won't be any choice but to let Ignatieff keep his job. Maybe by then, Liberal supporters will have learned that switching leaders all the time will not get rid of problems. Stéphane Dion has made it really easy for Ignatieff to look good in the next election. The more interesting question is whether Harper will stay if he gets another minority, which is the most likely scenario.

    I do not really think Canadians believe any of the "coalition" crap. However, Harper is setting himself up for an all or nothing election. If he gets a minority and a coalition is formed, he will not be able to call it illegitimate as Canadians did vote for it. So he should be careful of his ballot question framing as it is taking a huge risk.

  8. I think a Coalition between parties will have to happen in order to have a stable parliament. Be it the Conservatives with any one or the Liberals with the NDP. I think that A liberal Minority supported by the NDP or a coalition to make a majority would be perfect and 10 million times better than a Conservative Government. I would although rather have a Liberal Majority more than anything else.

  9. "If he gets a minority and a coalition is formed, he will not be able to call it illegitimate as Canadians did vote for it."

    Does that mean the Libs are going to admit it during the campaign? Or are they going to deny it point blank the whole time like Dion did?

  10. A coalition is always legitimate in our democracy and Harper even tried to form a coalition government with what he calls the "socialist" and was willing to work with what he called the "separatist" now he ask these parties to hold his government a float.


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