Thursday, August 05, 2010

Democrats in 2010

 With less than 100 days to the midterm election the republicans say that they are ready to take back the house and the senate. Is that really true? Now currently polls have republican and democrats tie in the house election. The senate the republicans need to win 10 new seats and lose not one of there own seats. The thing is that (Rothenberg Political Report a non partisan newsletter) predicts that only 11 democratic seats are in danger not to mention the 7 republican seats that are in danger of going from republican to democrat. Republicans would only be able to lose one seat in order to still be able to have a majority with grabbing all 11 democratic in danger seats. The House looks more likely. Well in order for republicans to win this they would have to gain 39 seats now unlike the senate all the house seats are up for election. The house is more unpredictable, but in 2008 the democrats had a 11% lead over the republicans in vote. Now let go to the swingometer of the house of representative on this blog. A swingometer is a device use to predict elections. it is used by placing how much a party is predicted to gain in percentage. then add that percentage to the overall vote across the country and find an estimated result if a party for example gains 3% in popular vote. for example: if the swingometer would be 3% for the republicans it would mean that take all the 435 seats an add 3% to there votes and see if there is a change in seats. Now this is definitely not perfect, but it is a good estimator. Now if you give 11% to the republicans in the midterm election which would give a tie in votes the result would be 229-206 democratic win. In fact you would need to give a 15% swing for republicans to win. Now that would mean a 4% lead which in unlikely considering the democrats have more money than the republicans now and the polls show the m at a tie. So it looks like republicans may win, but in reality the senate in very out of reach and the house is hard but easier than the senate.

Use swingometer here

Read more here

http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/08/02/midterms.outlook/index.html

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