Tuesday, October 26, 2010

A Republican house

The NY times put up a post saying that the Republicans have a 3 in 4 chance of winning the house and the democrats have an 81% chance of getting the senate. The thing is Obama would propably want it the other way around. See in the senate you need 60 seats to pass a bill. NY Times say that there is no hope (0%) that the democrats will go from 59 seats and get 60 seats. Now Obama could just do reconsilliation and he would only need 51, but that process takes longer and isn't done very offend. The house you just need 50% +1 now that is a much easier number to reach. See if Obama has 51 senate seats that doesn't mean he can pass legislation. First there are two independents that assoisiate themseleves with the democrats. Joe liberman who was once a Democrats and had diffrent opinion o the war in Iraq, but he could vote with Obama on more social economic issues. The next one is in Vermont and he is a socialist. Why does this matter? well in order to get 60 Obama no matter what the result is needs republican votes. If he has 49 democarts 2 indpendents he needs to puch more to the center which will maybe take away more left democrats (he is already doing this in the senate) . If Obama has the senate it wound't matter, because he already is budging on his agenda and if he losses the house it will be even harder to get much part of his agenda threw or any. If he had the House it would be easier for Obama then to have control of the senate that he already no matter what need to move more to the right. If republicans win the house and the Democrats win the senate I call it a win for the Republicans. If the Democrats win the House and not the senate then I call it a win for the Democrats.

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